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George Barros Profile picture
George Barros
@georgewbarros
Russia Team & GEOINT Team Lead @TheStudyofWar studying 🇺🇦,🇷🇺, & 🇧🇾. Led grassroots effort for Ukraine Javelins in 2014. W&M alum. Opinions mine.
Daniel O'Donnell Profile picture Lanny Ziering Profile picture Andre DIY ESS Profile picture Steen Lyth Profile picture Joao dos Reis Alberto Profile picture 9 subscribed
Sep 25, 2023 • 24 tweets • 11 min read
Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces entered Verbove on September 22 & continued attacking the settlement with armored vehicles as of September 24.

Russian sources also indicate that Ukrainian forces are operating north of Verbove.

Tactical report thread w/ sources.🧵 Image A Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) -affiliated source reported that Ukrainian forces entered Verbove for the first time on September 22 and continued pushing east.

Source: t.me/vdv_ZA_teplins…

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Sep 17, 2023 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
In our newest special edition for @TheStudyofWar, our team assesses that Ukraine's defensive and counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area since summer 2022 are an operationally sound undertaking. Ukraine's sustained operations in Bakhmut have fixed a large amount of Russian combat power that would otherwise have been available to reinforce Russian defenses in southern Ukraine.
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Sep 7, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Ukrainian forces are making tactical gains NW of Verbove.

Ukrainian forces likely pinched off / are pinching off a tactical salient that they made NW of Verbove where Russian fortifications are notably less developed & not as well connected to communications.

Assessment below.
Geolocated footage posted on September 7 shows Russian forces striking a new Ukrainian position in a treeline northwest of Verbove, indicating Ukrainian advances.

Sources: ; ; t.me/frontbird/3329


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Aug 30, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
I'd like to tamper expectation about the new Ukrainian activity behind the tank ditch near Verbove.

The available evidence does not mean this is a "confirmed breach" of the Surovikin line.

Ukrainian forces very well may have breached it, but we need more evidence.

Thread.
Image The new geolocated footage (h/t @moklasen) shows Ukrainian foot-mobile infantry of the 82nd Brigade, likely reconnaissance elements, operating just west of Verbove.

The new footage shows no evidence that these forces have heavy equipment behind the trench or dragon's teeth. Image
Aug 28, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Ukrainian forces may be attempting to breach the Russian tank ditch between Verbove and Robotyne.

Quick Thread.

NASA's VIIRS sensor picked up heat anomalies next to a segment of the tank ditch on August 27 near 35.9136801°E 47.4222758°N.

(Imagery here shows August 25 vs 28) Imagery collected on August 28 shows extensive brush burns marks near the tank ditch and even some burns between the ditch and the dragon's teeth (circled in red).
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Jul 27, 2023 • 18 tweets • 9 min read
July 27, 2023.

Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine and are making some tactical gains, including the liberation of Staromayorske in Donetsk Oblast.

A short thread on today's map changes for @TheStudyofWar. Image 1. Ukrainian forces liberated Staromayorske on July 27. The Russian positions in Urozhane are precariously held by a river bank. I suspect Russian forces will retrograde from or be beaten out of the Urozhane in the near future.
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Jul 23, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The Wagner Group’s footprint in Belarus is likely expanding.

A quick rollup on reported (not all confirmed) Wagner Group activities in Belarus. Image The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on July 22 that approximately 50 Wagner personnel are in Sosnovy, Belarus, (presumably the Sosnovy in Asipovichy Raion immediately adjacent to the known Wagner camp in Tsel,and not either of the two villages named Sosnovy in Gomel Oblast).
May 12, 2023 • 26 tweets • 11 min read
May 11, 2023 map update for @TheStudyofWar.

Ukrainian forces are conducting a local counterattack near Bakhmut's flanks causing significant panic among Russian milbloggers speculating about Ukraine's anticipated counteroffensive.

Details below. This assessment is based primarily off of the available evidence: Russian-sourced reports from sources that regularly provide reliable information as well as some Ukrainian official statements and limited available supporting geolocated visual evidence.
Apr 23, 2023 • 21 tweets • 10 min read
Unpacking this assessment in our change of control of terrain around the Dnipro River delta.

This assessment uses a combination of multi-sourced Russian-provided textual reports about Ukrainian activity in this area as well as available geolocated combat footage. Image Russian milbloggers Rybar and "Thirteenth" claimed on April 20 and 22 that Ukrainian forces have maintained positions in left (east) bank Kherson Oblast for weeks, established stable supply lines to these positions, and regularly conduct sorties in the area. ImageImageImageImage
Apr 10, 2023 • 32 tweets • 7 min read
Thread unpacking my latest @TheStudyofWar assessment with @KatStepanenko.

We assess Russian occupation authorities are likely conducting a campaign of systematic religious persecution in occupied Ukraine in support of a larger campaign of cultural genocide against Ukraine.

🧵 Our team did a deep dive on religious persecution events that Russian forces have reportedly inflicted against Ukrainians and discovered at least 76 reports of Russian forces deliberately coercing religious groups. Image
Mar 24, 2023 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
GIF: Russian forces at the Obuz-Lesnovsky 230th Combined Arms raining Ground in Brest, Belarus, recently redeployed back to Russia ahead of Russia’s spring conscription call-up on April 1.

Compare equipment levels from mid-February to now.

Quick thread on Belarus🧵

📸 @Maxar Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) representative Vadym Skibitsky stated on March 23 that there are about 4,200 Russian servicemen currently in Belarus, indicating a drawdown. Russia had about 12,000 personnel deployed in Belarus in late 2022.
Mar 21, 2023 • 26 tweets • 14 min read
March 20 Ukraine Control of Terrain map update for
@TheStudyofWar.

1. Russians made more confirmed gains in southern Bakhmut

2. New Russian claims in SW & NE Bakhmut

3. Mapped the new claimed attack on SW Avdiivka

4. New UKR partisan event.

More changes and details below. 1. We expanded assessed Russian advances northward in the Mariupol Cemetery in southern Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, given that geolocated footage published on March 19 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian forces in the cemetery. Sources: ;
Mar 14, 2023 • 17 tweets • 10 min read
March 14 Ukraine Control of Terrain map update for
@TheStudyofWar.

1. Russians claimed they captured the Vostokmash plant in Bakhmut

2. Russians made gains in southern Bakhmut

3. Russians made more gains towards Krasnohorivka (Yasynuvats'kyi Raion)

More and details below 1. We expanded Russian claims further south to the AZOCM metal plant within northern Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, based on multiple photos and videos posted by Russian milbloggers on March 14 that claim Russian forces reached the plant and are clearing the Vostokmash plant.
Mar 10, 2023 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
Latest Ukraine Control of Terrain map update for @TheStudyofWar.

1. Russians likely captured Dubovo-Vasylivka 5km northwest of Bakhmut.

2. Russians made more advances in southern Bakhmut.

3. Russians claimed  Orikhovo-Vasylivka.

More and details below. 1. We expanded assessed Russian advances westward to Dubovo-Vasylivka, Donetsk Oblast, given geolocated footage published on March 9 shows Russian forces in eastern Dubovo-Vasylivka reportedly on March 8.
Mar 9, 2023 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
Latest Ukraine Control of Terrain map update for
@TheStudyofWar.

Russians made gains in southwest Bakhmut and near Spirne.

Ukrainians made gains in Mayorsk.

Russians occupy Novokarlivka in Zaporizhia.

More and details below. 1. We expanded assessed Russian advances northward in southwest Bakhmut given geolocated footage published on March 8 showing a Ukrainian tank firing on a building occupied by Russian forces in the area. Sources: ;
Mar 8, 2023 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
Latest Ukraine Control of Terrain map update for @TheStudyofWar.

Ukrainian forces have likely withdrawn from eastern Bakhmut east of the Bakhmutivka River as of March 7.

Details below. Image We expanded assessed Russian advances up to the eastern bank of the Bakhmutka River in Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, given ISW’s assessment that Ukrainian forces have likely withdrawn from eastern Bakhmut as of March 7.
Feb 19, 2023 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
The Russian MoD's dismissal of Donetsk People’s Republic military spokesman Eduard Basurin as part of the formal reorganization of the DNR militia under the Russian MoD triggered another wave of Russian milblogger criticisms against the Russian defense establishment.

Thread 🧵 This follows yesterday's @TheStudyofWar assessment.

The reformation of the LNR & DNR militia into the Russian Armed Forces has potential to become another point of neuralgia in the Russian information space.
Feb 9, 2023 • 14 tweets • 10 min read
Latest control of terrain map update for @TheStudyofWar.

1. Russian forces are making more gains around northern and southern Bakhmut near the E-40 and T0504 highways to encircle it.

2. There's a new reported partisan attack in Yasenivskyi, Luhansk Oblast.

Details below. 1. We expanded Russian advances and in Stupky, northern Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, and in the direction of Zaliznyanske, Donetsk Oblast, given new geolocated footage, Ukrainian official reports, and claims by Russian sources.
Feb 7, 2023 • 15 tweets • 10 min read
Latest Ukraine map update for @TheStudyofWar:

1. Russian forces made more tactical gains in Bakhmut

2. Ukrainians are on Kruhlyk Island on the Dnipro River Delta

3. New Russian claims north of Kupyansk

4. Russian forces never took Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast

More below. 1. We expanded Russian advances towards southern Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, and expanded Russian line of control in southeastern Bakhmut given geolocated footage posted on February 5 that shows Russian forces in an area they previously had not been recorded in before.
Jan 11, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Anomaly detected.

The UKR General Staff deviated from its normal reporting pattern about Russian forces in Belarus and near Ukraine’s northern border on January 10 by excluding its usual statement that Ukraine has not observed Russian forces forming strike groups in Belarus. This is the first time the UKR General Staff has excluded this statement since it reintroduced discussing Russian forces in Belarus on November 20.

This is inconsistent with the UKR General Staff‘s uniform reporting style about the growing Russian military presence in Belarus.
Jan 11, 2023 • 23 tweets • 12 min read
Latest Ukraine control of terrain map update for @TheStudyofWar.

1. Russians advanced in central Soledar but likely do not yet fully control the settlement despite claims.

2. Reported Ukrainian gains in Luhansk.

3. New partisan event in Luhansk Oblast.

Details below. 1. We expanded assessed Russian advances westward to central Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, given that we observed geolocated combat footage published on January 9 that showed Russian forces in central Soledar. We've all see the video showing Russian soldiers near the city...