Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 14, 2022 30 tweets 7 min read Read on X
This thread🧵 will be my Ukraine War overview.

Russia is losing 2/3 of a battalion combat group of equipment a day and we are into day 79.

That's over 52.6 full battalion equipment sets out of the 120 initially sent into Ukraine & ~180 over all in the Russian Ground Forces

1/
IOW, 43% of the total committed Russian mechanized combat vehicle fleet and likely the best 29% of the total Russian combat vehicle fleet have been destroyed or captured.

Percentage casualty rate wise, this is the institutional equivalent of the III Armored Corps in Ft Hood
2/ ImageImageImage
... Texas catching a high yield tac-nuke for the US Army.

Per the Oryx visual compilations, Ukraine is losing one vehicle destroyed or captured for every 3.5 Russian vehicles.

If the current Ukrainian casualty rates match the 2014-2015 fighting.

3/
Ukraine is taking about one casualty for between 5 & 7 Russian casualties right now.

The Ukrainian diaspora email list I participated in carefully collated Ukraine versus Russian casualties in the 2014-2015 period of Donbas fighting.
4/
The aggregate Ukraine vs Russia losses in 2014-2015 were:

AFU Losses in total: ~3,000 "KIA";
AFU Non-Combat Losses: 1,294;
AFU Combat Losses: ~2,000 KIA;
Russian Combat Losses: ~15,000 KIA;

5/ Image
This yields two kill ratios:

Aggregate Kill Ratio: ~5:1 counting all AFU losses;

Combat Kill Ratio: ~7.3:1 counting only AFU losses due to Enemy Action;

Note: "AFU" is Armed Forces Ukraine
6/
An unknown are the claimed ~800 Ukrainian MIAs. If those men are counted as KIAs, it pushes that kill ratio number for the AFU down.

Suffice it to say I expected Ukraine to do far, far, better than most defense analysts when this latest round of fighting kicked off.🤷

7/
Chief Military Prosecutor of the AFU, Gen Matios stated in this article:

Shocking statistics of non-battle casualties of Ukraine's army
web.archive.org/web/2016081515…
6/
Chief Military Prosecutor of the AFU, Gen Matios stated in this article:

Shocking statistics of non-battle casualties of Ukraine's army
web.archive.org/web/2016081515…
8/
An unknown are the claimed ~800 Ukrainian MIAs. If those men are counted as KIAs, it pushes that kill ratio number for the AFU down.

Suffice it to say I expected Ukraine to do far, far, better than most defense analysts when this latest round of fighting kicked off.🤷

7/
Chief Military Prosecutor of the AFU, Gen Matios stated in this article:

Shocking statistics of non-battle casualties of Ukraine's army
web.archive.org/web/2016081515…
8/
...that the single largest cause of AFU non-combat losses was lethal medical conditions, resulting from inadequate medical screening of personnel who were being called up during the conscription campaign, that covered men of up to 45 years of age.

9/
As the list-admin observed at the time:

"1. Russians are accustomed to taking heavy combat losses and the political blowback is much smaller than would be seen in any Western nation;

2.The high combat loss rates deplete the aggregated experience pool in the Russian military
10/
... dumbing it down, and making it more likely to take foolish risks, and offer bad assessments to the nation's political leaders;

The realities of (1) & (2) have been observed repeatedly in the Ukrainian war, and given the losses sustained in middle ranking and junior
11/
...officers in the campaign, the propensity to blind optimism and the tendency to starting fights that sane people would not start will obviously continue for decades.

The punchline is that the culture of yes men surrounding the leader, the general insensitivity to combat...
12/
...losses, and the depletion of talent and expertise will make the Russians prone to starting fights they cannot win for the foreseeable future.

Put differently, the Ukrainian war has made the Russians much more dangerous than they were before this war."
13/
The previous passage was why I was stating Twitter in January & early February 2022 that the Russians really were going to go for a full regime change invasion.

The reason I didn't surface any of this then was Russian disinformation had so overrun Western government policy
14/
...makers, the ranks of senior intelligence officials, and corporate media that anyone mentioning it without months of videos showing incompetent Russian military performance versus superb Ukrainian combat tactics would be labeled a flipped out kook.

15/
The applicable proverbs which applied while I waited to surface this:

"There are none so blind as those who do not wish to see."

"There none so deaf as those who do not wish to hear."

16/
Simply _No One_ wanted to see or hear that the Russian Military is really a uniformed version of the movie "Idiocracy."

25,000 dead Russian soldiers still isn't enough for many of them right now.

"Directed Cognition" does that.

17/
For the rest of you, we have this BBC screaming headline:

Ukraine entering new phase of war, defence minister says - BBC
bbc.com/news/live/worl…
18/
Ukraine is going for a one million citizen military mobilization.

The six years of Dombas fighting conscript classes plus prewar Ukrainian military is ~650,000 right there.

Add in the mobilizing territorials, & yeah, one million Ukrainians under arms are here by 30 June.
19/
These Ukrainian reinforcements include the six conscript classes who fought in Donbas in 2016-2021.

That is, the Ukrainians are calling combat veterans back to the colors fighting in the same areas that they served six to nine months of combat in, working with NCO's
20/
...who are already fighting there.

Russian conscripts present in Ukraine & being called up are barely trained greenhorns with no NCO's to speak of.

Effectively, 100 Ukrainians are generating the same combat power as 300 Russian troops.
21/
And this combat effectiveness value ratio is increasingly in Ukraine's favor over time.

As the Russians lose more and more of their best soldiers & vehicles.

Their greenhorn replacements die faster & kill fewer Ukrainians.

22/
The Russian offensives at Izyum and Severodonietsk failing beyond recovery is confirmation that my prediction of the Russian tactical truck fleet collapsing right now is close to the mark.

Russia has lost the ability to do more than a single push out of the Donbas, and then
23/
... only with civilian trucks.

We are in the beginnings of a Russian Lanchester square law curve collapse.
24/
Like Japanese airpower in WW2's Pacific theater. There is no easy way to analytically predict when that sort of collapse happens.

I've publicly stated on Chicago Talk Radio that the end of June is when the trend lines say the Russian Army falls apart.

25/
Ukrainian J2 MGen Budanov was just interviewed & predicting the Russians will break in August.

Kyiv, in the first week of the war, called out for all Ukrainians anywhere with any military experience to come home and fight.

26/
Ukrainians are returning from all over English speaking world. This is a enormous pool of manpower with diverse skills.

Whatever else you want to say, in the manpower game. Russia has lost absolutely.

27/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 28
Remember all the professionally incompetent yo-yo naval officers & hangers on claiming FPV drones were not a threat to naval warships in 2023 WHEN I TOLD THEM THEY WOULD BE?

Reality just kicked them one and all in the 'nads...

...HARD⬇️

1/2
I told these professionally incompetent US navalists accounts on X/Twitter in 2023 that both containerized drones and FPV drones were a deadly threat to every naval vessel on the water they were ignoring to their crew's peril.

2/
Those professionally incompetent yo-yo US navalists accounts didn't listen because of their Dunning-Kruger group think delusions.

They refused to accept the reality that surprise FPV attacks happen because the enemy always gets a vote...FIRST!

This is where I laugh at them⬇️
3/3
Read 4 tweets
Aug 23
We need to have a talk about Russian military corruption and its effects on the Russo-Ukrainian War.

It's kind of like these sun-rotted missile truck tires that make my reputation on Twitter.

Corruption happens slowly, then all at once.

Corruption🧵
1/ Image
The Russian Army issued a "live off the land" order in early March 2022 resulted in lots of Russian enlisted stealing outside the line of sight of Russian junior officers.

This hollowed out discipline the RuAF "Professional Volunteers" in early 2022.

2/
Given the visuals of the base level corruption of Russian society in terms of oil income disparity.

A lot of "Russia Strong" yo-yo's just shrug and say, "so what, Russia won wars when it was corrupt."

3/
Read 21 tweets
Aug 21
At a production rate of 100 FP-1 drones a day. Fire Point will make 13,200 FP-1 one way attack (OWA) drone by 1 Jan 2026.

By itself.

Every other Ukrainian OWA drone maker is in addition to that 13,200 number.

1/2
If the FP-1 really is 60% of Ukrainian OWA drone production. (Rather than just recent launches)

0.6 (x) = 13,200
x = 13,200/0.6
x = 22,000

Ukraine is on track to make 22,000 OWA drones in the last 132 days of 2025. 👀


2/
22,000 Ukrainian OWA drones in 132 days certainly is a strategic bombing threat of the first order.

Even if Russia downs 80% of them.

That is 4,400 Ukrainian OWA drone hits in Russia in the next 132 days or 33 and 1/3 precision guided drone hits on Russia per day to 2026.
3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 21
More information has come out on the FP-5 Flamingo which gives insights io both the systems and production engineering involved for low cost production.

I'm going to use the WW2 F6F Hellcat & M4 Sherman as examples of Ukrainian FP-5 design choices.

Engineering🧵
1/
The FP-5 GLCM production photos released today shows what looks like a combination of carbon fiber composite, molded thermoplastics, and sheet metal.

Cruciform tail controls are all moving.

Wings are attached before launch like a 1960s USAF MGM-1 Matador.
2/ Image
The FP-5 Transporter Erector Launch (TEL) trailer looks like a new custom build.

Iryna Terekh, head of production at Fire Point, stated to the AP that "Fire Point is producing roughly one Flamingo per day, and by October they hope to build capacity to make seven per day."

3/ Image
Image
Read 16 tweets
Aug 19
I've gotten a lot of comments on this thread here and via DM. I'm going to share one from a Cold War gray beard on the engine that powers the FP-5.

"FP-5 is around 4 x Tomahawk in mass.

FP-5 Engine🧵
...With a similar configuration, drag will not be dominated by lift induced wing drag but will form drag which is typical for 500 knots air speed jets and missiles with low aspect ratio wings.

2/
...So a rule of thumb estimate is that you will need around 4 x the thrust of a Tomahawk F107-WR-402 700 lbf (3.1 kN) engine for an FP-5 Flamingo GLCM.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 19
Slowly, with a lot of notice, Trump is morphing into Pres. Biden

This territorial concession malarkey is exactly what the Biden Administration was playing games with in Nov 2021 via an op-ed by Samuel Charap of RAND in the Nov 19, 2021 Politico.

1/
That Op-Ed advocated, in effect, that the US abandon Ukraine to Russia in exchange for other concessions by Russia, greenlighting Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

It was understood in Nov. 2021 era DC that Charap...


2/rand.org/pubs/commentar…
...was Jake Sullivan's totem animal for surfacing ideas of "de-escalation" with Russia.

Former Estonian President Ilves and Prof Stephan Blank utterly shredded the Charap/Sullivan thought balloon.

Seeing Trump revive that Charap/Sullivan thought ballon now is sickening🤮

3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets

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