Thread by @ThreshedThought

We’re reaching a bit of a tipping point in the Ukraine War.

A thread.

Over the last week or so, we have seen Russian forces begin to culminate in the east and the south of Ukraine.

That is: they’ve moved from the offensive to the defensive (conversely, the Ukrainians have moved from the defensive to the offensive).

Two areas where this is very obvious: Kherson and Kharkiv.

Kherson - where the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians back towards the city which, if it continues, will make the Ru planned annexation a bit difficult.

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Kharkiv: The Ukr have almost pushed the Ru out of artillery range of the city. In one place they have even pushed the Russians back to within 2 or 3 kms of the international border.

More significantly - this Ukr salient puts them in a position to cut one of the major supply lines running from Russia down to its forces in Izyum.

(For those who don’t remember, Izyum is where the Russians have concentrated their forces in an attempt to join Kharkiv to Mariupol to encircle the Ukrainian forces in the East)

Observers of this war will remember the Battle of Kyiv. There, the Ukrainians focussed extensively on disrupting Russian supply, then surrounding pockets of Russians and then liquidating them.

This then eventually led to a rout of Russian forces north of Kyiv.

We are starting to see the same thing happen here.

So what now?

Well, in broad terms, the longer the war goes on the better it gets for Ukraine rather than Russia.

Ukrainian morale is high; its supplies are increasing (from the West); and they are on the offensive.

Russian morale is low, and in some places collapsing; its supplies are becoming constrained (it has probably run out of precision munitions for instance); and sanctions will increasingly constrain its ability to make new weapons.

I also think that now we have seen a Russian culmination, we will also see increased Ukrainian boldness on the battlefield - encircling pockets, hitting command posts etc.

And this is where it gets interesting.

These sorts of activities can create fear, panic and collapse, if done well.

And in many places the Russians look overextended. It’s very easy, for instance, to cut the coastal link up the Russians have created between Donbas and Crimea.

So, if skilful, the Ukrainians should focus on creating this fear and panic amongst the Russian forces—that way they are likely to engender complete collapse amongst them.

This is the best way to achieve their strategic goal of removing the Russians from their territory.

I see this path as much more likely than a slow grinding war.

ENDS