We’re reaching a bit of a tipping point in the Ukraine War.

A thread.
Over the last week or so, we have seen Russian forces begin to culminate in the east and the south of Ukraine.

That is: they’ve moved from the offensive to the defensive (conversely, the Ukrainians have moved from the defensive to the offensive).
Two areas where this is very obvious: Kherson and Kharkiv.

Kherson - where the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians back towards the city which, if it continues, will make the Ru planned annexation a bit difficult.



Kharkiv: The Ukr have almost pushed the Ru out of artillery range of the city. In one place they have even pushed the Russians back to within 2 or 3 kms of the international border.
More significantly - this Ukr salient puts them in a position to cut one of the major supply lines running from Russia down to its forces in Izyum.
(For those who don’t remember, Izyum is where the Russians have concentrated their forces in an attempt to join Kharkiv to Mariupol to encircle the Ukrainian forces in the East)
Observers of this war will remember the Battle of Kyiv. There, the Ukrainians focussed extensively on disrupting Russian supply, then surrounding pockets of Russians and then liquidating them.

This then eventually led to a rout of Russian forces north of Kyiv.
We are starting to see the same thing happen here.
So what now?
Well, in broad terms, the longer the war goes on the better it gets for Ukraine rather than Russia.
Ukrainian morale is high; its supplies are increasing (from the West); and they are on the offensive.
Russian morale is low, and in some places collapsing; its supplies are becoming constrained (it has probably run out of precision munitions for instance); and sanctions will increasingly constrain its ability to make new weapons.
I also think that now we have seen a Russian culmination, we will also see increased Ukrainian boldness on the battlefield - encircling pockets, hitting command posts etc.

And this is where it gets interesting.
These sorts of activities can create fear, panic and collapse, if done well.

And in many places the Russians look overextended. It’s very easy, for instance, to cut the coastal link up the Russians have created between Donbas and Crimea.
So, if skilful, the Ukrainians should focus on creating this fear and panic amongst the Russian forces—that way they are likely to engender complete collapse amongst them.

This is the best way to achieve their strategic goal of removing the Russians from their territory.
I see this path as much more likely than a slow grinding war.

ENDS

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More from @ThreshedThought

May 6
Time for a thread on Tunbridge Well Local Elections.

Followers - it’s the 🧵you’ve been waiting for.

Updates during the day live from The Count!
I spent all day yesterday out in the Wards.

The big story is the Conservative vote collapsed.

And when I say collapsed, I mean twin-set pearls giggling like school kids after voting Lib Dem for the first time collapsed.
There were some flanking attempts from Labour and the Greens, but these were fairly robustly with.
Read 40 tweets
Apr 29
Time for an update on the Battle for Donbas

A thread.
As expected, the Russians have sort of fizzled.
They pulled all of these mauled units out of Kyiv, and then tried to reconstitute them for combat in the East.
Read 27 tweets
Apr 17
The Battle is Donbas seems to have started.

But it’s the Ukrainians who have started it.
See here on my expertly drawn map Image
The Ukrainians are pushing east from Kharkiv which cuts the supply routes for Russian forces in Izyum.
Read 76 tweets
Apr 13
Battle for Donbas

A thread.
As every day goes past that the Russian doesn’t happen, we have to ask ourselves:

Are the Russian forces not actually able to generate a manoeuvre force over and above what they need to hold the line in Donbas?

Not clear yet.
Things that could change this include the Russians taking Mariupol completely. This would free up some Russian forces for the wider Donbas. But they will be exhausted so not a huge amount of use.
Read 35 tweets
Apr 9
Much has been made of this Russian redeployment to the east of Ukraine.

A thread.
First a few thoughts.
The Ukrainians won the first major battle in this war. That was the Battle of Kyiv (2022).

This battle will be studied. Is being studied.
Read 28 tweets
Apr 2
These Russian mass graves and executions are going to change things.

Watch for a shift in western policy now.
Think it makes it even more likely Russia is going to be turfed out of Ukraine.

All of it.
Purchases of Russian gas are going to be stopping much sooner than we thought.

That’s for sure.
Read 10 tweets

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