Since many people know nothing about Finland, jump on click bait headlines and retweet without checking facts, here a short overview of the things Russia has threatened Finland with so far & what their consequences are/would be:
1. Cutting electricity exports as of today
No problem, thanks to a new nuclear power plant + wind power Finland will soon be self-sufficient and even a net exporter. Finland used to import ~10% from Russia. Sweden & the Baltics can compensate for any short-term shortages.
2. Cutting gas deliveries (will prob happen this month)
A bit annoying because some industries need gas but on the whole no problem because gas is only ~5% of Finland’s energy mix. Finland already works with Estonia on the purchase of a LNG terminal ship.
3. Ending the lease contract of the Saimaa canal (Finland has leased the part of the canal that runs through Russia)
Finland doesn’t really need it anyways & would end up saving a s*it ton of money from the modernisation of the infrastructure.
4. Stationing troops at the Finnish border
Currently the question is: what troops
In the long term expected to happen anyways, regardless of whether Finland is in NATO or not. Russia already declared Finland an enemy along with the other EU countries.
When I say Finland is prepared, I mean it. Russia has never NOT been THE security issue No. 1 for Finland. Although the world only recently found out about our 1340km border with Russia, we never once forgot about it. So rest assured, WE HAVE THOUGHT THIS THROUGH
Oh and one more thing: the Finns are actually happy that Russia is cutting off the remaining energy supplies because the Finnish people have been demanding their government to stop the exports on their own account.
So the joke’s basically entirely on Russia
*exports and imports. All of it.
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Q about other Nordic CHODs’ warnings about timelines for a Russian attack on NATO & why he isn’t issuing similar warnings: “they say it’s a possibility. Of course it’s always a possibility, but the question is its probability”
Jaakkola continues that he doesn’t think a Russian attack on NATO is *probable* in the near future. He doesn’t consider a similar wake-up call necessary in Finland as Finnish defence thinking has always included the *possibility* of a Russian attack and 🇫🇮 is therefore prepared
On Ukraine, Jaakkola says that the general speculation is a new large summer offensive by Russia to reach an as good as possible military situation to then start pushing for political talks about Ukraine’s and the West’s concessions.
The Finnish security and intelligence service is giving the annual press conference.
Overall assessment: Finland’s security environment has changed fundamentally and for good. There is no going back to status quo ante (with Russia).
Overall, Russian intelligence activities have decreased in Finland since 2022 due to countermeasures, such as expelling of known intelligence officers and visa restrictions.
Cyber threats and threats against critical infrastructure, especially maritime, have increased
“Russia has been the main subject of our work throughout our (75 years of) existence. It’s great to be able to say it out loud now” says the Finnish intelligence service officer.
There’s no going back indeed, the genie is out of the bottle
Russland ist nicht erst seit letzter Woche im Informationskrieg gegen euch, sondern versucht seit mindestens 10 Jahren (leider ziemlich erfolgreich) aktiv sowohl politische Entscheidungsfindung als auch öffentlichen Diskurs in 🇩🇪 zu beeinflussen !
Dabei kann Russland auf ein Netzwerk von Botschaftern, Generälen und Kanzlern a.D. sowie Politiker links- und rechtsaußen zurückgreifen die alle fröhlich die gewünschten Narrative in den deutschen Debatten aufrechterhalten.
Wir sind außerdem eh schon längst alle Kriegspartei in Russlands Augen. Russland ist laut Putins Propaganda im Krieg gegen die NATO und den Westen, und das ist was dort für Handlungsentscheidungen zählt, nicht das deutsche Grundgesetz.
Got tired of the defeatism that is AGAIN spreading in Europe amid the weekly warnings that Russia might attack NATO in 1-5 (or 20) years so I wrote about Nordic-Baltic preparedness.
Not everybody has been sitting on their hands for the past 2 years.
Finland has activated a war economy lite. The Baltic states have been busy jointly procuring air defence systems to establish the “Livonian air shield” and are working to reinforce their borders together in the “Baltic Defence Line”. Sweden is reaching 2% already this year.
The Nordic countries are using their NORDEFCO cooperation framework and the EU’s ASAP funding to increase ammunition production both for regional needs and for Ukraine. The Baltic states are doing the same. This is all happening already, not in 3 years.
Finland has quietly filled its wartime stockpiles and is activating some of the so-called “production reservation agreements” which means that companies produce at the armed forces’ request what is needed for logistics - basically wartime economy light
The Finnish Defence Forces (FDF) received extra money right in the spring of 2022 and started working on increasing stockpiles immediately, “luckily before many other European states woke up to the issue”, says the logistics chief - which means that the orders have been coming in
The analysis what is needed is based both on long-term assessments and the analysis of Ukraine’s ammunition consumption. Finland is already producing 5 times more heavy artillery munitions than pre-2022 but the capacity isn’t at max yet