What I am not worried about in housing is how awesome primary resident homeowners look now 🇺🇸💪🏾📈🔥. It's not just the Fico score cash flow. The more important story is we have no exotic loan debt structures in the system post 2010. 🔥🔥🔥

The majority of the stock of homeowners looks rock-solid. Also, 40% plus of the homes in the U.S. have no mortgage

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Logan Mohtashami

@LoganMohtashami

May 14

For all those housing crash addicts who saved my tweets over the years and are waiting to tell me I told you so. Maybe you need to get a life 😉or forecast something with your real name and face! 💪🏾

2012-2022 that is a lot of I phone storage wasted! 🥳
Remember, only real ballplayers forecast with their real names and face. The rest are just too Chicken $#@& to do anything. 💪🏾

Don't think I don't remember all those messages from 2012-2019... adorable, then 2020, you thought Covid19 was your savior, then 2021 Forbearance, then the 50% + crash in 2022 due to forecasted panic selling.
Maybe housing isn't your thing! 😎

Read 7 tweets

Logan Mohtashami

@LoganMohtashami

May 14

https://twitter.com/NBABeau/status/1525507780265750529

This is my long-term belief on this topic. You're not a genuine buyer if you're waiting to buy a home. I know this has been a marketing line used for decades. Should we wait? Traditionally speaking, when you're ready to buy, you buy a home because you're buying a payment

https://twitter.com/NBABeau/status/1525507780265750529

Since we have no more exotic loan debt structures in the system, every home buyer in America is legit. No credit risk recast issue going out anymore. Millions of people buy homes a year because they're ready to purchase, and they can buy that shelter cost.

It's like an urban legend that millions of Americans listen to Youtube housing crash addicts and never bought a home since 2012 and were renting and can't ever buy again now. That's all social media marketing BS; when you're ready, you're ready.

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Logan Mohtashami

@LoganMohtashami

May 13

https://twitter.com/modestproposal1/status/1525154818494431232

It's rare post-1996 to have a monthly inventory supply over 6 months; it only happened during the housing bust years. Remember that the new home sales market monthly supply data is different than this

https://twitter.com/modestproposal1/status/1525154818494431232

Where the monthly supply for new homes is at 6.4 months, it's 2.0 for the existing home sales market.
Still today, on Twitter and for many years, people get these confused because they go to Fred, type in a monthly supply, and think it's for the existing home sales market.

I still have people writing articles (Mostly Stock Traders) who make this mistake. 😉

Read 9 tweets

Logan Mohtashami

@LoganMohtashami

May 13

https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1525121799968673795

In 2013, that spike in yields created a 20% year-over-year decline trend in purchase application data. Sales declined, and growth rate or pricing fell; That was the last year total inventory grew noticeably. So far, we haven't seen a similar % decline YoY in apps. 4MA -12.5% YoY

https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1525121799968673795

Of course, the market was much different back then, and demographics and employment levels much better now. However, every time rates have risen post-2010, we have seen a declining trend in sales.

Of course, the big difference is that total inventory was much higher then. Mortgage rates are higher now.
As soon as we get back to 1.52 - 1.93 million of inventory 2018/2019 levels, I can take the savagely unhealthy housing market theme off.

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