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Christo Grozev Profile picture
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May 14 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Taking the (information) war to a whole new level, Zelensky just announced Ukraine winning the #Eurovision will be symbolic for Ukraine winning the war.
#Eurovision2022 starting... right now.
I'm surprised he didn't announce next year's final will be in Belgorod.
Or, we let Moldova win and host next year's final in Tiraspol.
..and Ukraine won, predictably, thanks to the European popular vote. The "institutional jury vote" had placed it at #5. In a way, corroborating what we said on a panel at #LMC today - that the EU population is more radicalized - for the first time - than the EU political elites.

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More from @christogrozev

Christo Grozev Profile picture
May 8
It's hard to assess in real time boastful claims of enemy losses made by either side during a war. It's rare that such a claim gets confirmed by the other side - but now this has happened, with Ukraine's claims that it has decimated Russian presence on the Zmeiny island (1/)
While official RU channels are silent on the topic, two mercenary-linked telegram channels now admit that Ukraine destroyed critical military infrastructure (and spetznaz forces) on the island - including this MI-8 Russian helicopter
As Wagner's channel now confirms, in addition to the MI-8 (no survivors) + the evacuation Spetsnaz team, Ukraine destroyed several Tor-M2 anti-aircraft systems, two Raptor cutters, RU bases and ships bringing additional weapons to the island.
Read 5 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Apr 27
I wish more people could get this joke.
Ok, it's super awkward to "explain" a joke but I guess I must, as only (some) Russians can get this one (mini-thread):
Over the last years, Kremlin propaganda uses one trope: Russian trolls post pro-Russian comments under articles in Bulgarian media, and then Russian media quote those trolls as if they are the general Bulgarian public, using headlines like "Bulgarians are ecstatic about..." Image
Read 5 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Apr 24
A Ukrainian heavy-transport Antonov plane just landed in Sofia... I wonder why..
Bulgaria has been secretly supplying ammo to Ukraine via a "third country", in an attempt to prevent disintegration if the coalition government due to the Socialists' adamant pro-Kremlin objection to arms exports. But Ukraine hasn't been happy with a tryst, wants a marriage.
Bulgaria has the all-important large caliber (152) shells in quantities that can support Ukraine's defense for months. But secret supplies can only get Ukraine a streak, so Ukraine has been pushing for official sales. Maybe it worked. We'll find out soon.
Read 4 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Apr 18
The father of one of the young conscripts who went missing on the Moskva missile cruiser lashes out at the Russian military who are even refusing to tell him what happened to his son.
The father says he was contacted by three other families of MIA conscripts from the ship. They all want written answers. This isn't going down, no pun intended. m.vk.com/wall601245129_…
Get a lot of hate reactions to the father of the dead conscript. Totally understandable, but remember: the only realistic way to stop this war is through an implosion of the bubble of social support for it, and the more angry parents like this, the sooner the implosion.
Read 4 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Apr 9
A couple weeks ago a Wagner source told me of a hastily out together new PMC, owned by a son-in-law of a GRU general, and set up to get a piece of the money pie available during the war. A unit numbering approx 200 was stationed in Pripyaty /1
edition.cnn.com/2022/04/08/eur…
They stationed them in old condemned apartment blocks, seemingly unaware of the risks. A couple days later a wounded merc ended up in a Belarus clinic, causing the Geiger counter to almost break. The rest of the mercs, hearing of this, deserted in panic. MoD were looking for them
When I shared this with a Ukrainian journalist, he joked "so we don't need night visors to find then, as they glow green naturally".
Read 4 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Mar 29
These are good questions. Let me try to answer one by one.
Why the Ukrainian government denies is not a difficult question (it's war, it's negotiation time, information of this kind is both leverage (if private, one can trade it) and a liability (if public, one must act on it).
Why Abramovlch denies is a false premise. Unless I have missed something today, he doesn't deny. He confirms it but on background (actually his team's confirmation to WSJ is what got us to talk about it).
Why Russia denies is a very good question. If Russia had nothing to do with it, it would had all motives to claim this DID happen but was a Ukrainian provocation. After all, the symptoms appeared in Kyiv. What an opportunity for Russia... missed.
Read 6 tweets

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