So where is the biggest pain to Putin, when Finland joins NATO? Let's study the map a little bit. Let's do some Coca Cola. Or.. Kola. As in Kola peninsula
This place:
Coca Kola Thread 2/
Most people didn't know this place even existed. But the Western quarter of the Kola peninsula is one of the most dense collections of nuclear weapons ... on the planet.
Russian Arctic fleet has its submarine bases here with several sub pens outside Murmansk
Coca Kola Thread 3/
The submarine pens are visible on Google maps. If you recognize boats by their shapes, you can identify the 'boomers' (those carrying nuclear armed SLBMs = Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles - that can reach almost the other side of the planet)
Coca Kola Thread 4/
Similarly, the largest collection of air bases, with long range strategic bombers of the Russian Air Force: Tupolev Tu 160 Blackjack, Tu 122N Backfire, and Tu 95 Bear are parked at air bases along this corridor in Kola Peninsula. The Russian nuclear bombers
Coca Kola Thread 5/
There are plenty of other military assets too, and then various economic interests from nickle mines to fishing, to hydroelectric power plants, that are vital for Russia. All on this Kola peninsula
And there is one slight problem..
Coca Kola Thread 6/
All of Kola peninsula is connected to the rest of Russia on one road and one railroad - that is the orange road I show here. That runs 700 km (450 miles) before it forks. That is a single point of failure for Russia. A strategic stranglehold
Coca Kola Thread 7/
Currently, if Russia were to have a war with NATO, this road is relatively safe, because only way NATO could get to it, is from Norway. VERY unlikely to mount a successful attack because the entrance point is so small (30 km/20 miles at narrowest point)
Coca Kola Thread 8/
Russia has stationed two DIVISIONS of crack arctic troops to guard this Northern flank
Now compare how the danger chances when Finland joins NATO.. The blue arrows. Finland could attack from ANYWHERE. Impossible to block even with 1 million soldiers
Coca Kola Thread 9/
Remember the 40 mile convoy? Finland would not need to OCCUPY this territory. A single COMPANY of specialists could destroy the road, railroad & electric line connecting Murmansk to Russia. And this whole area is dense pine forest. Finns would just vanish
Coca Kola Thread 10/
When Finland was neutral, if Putin were to have a war with NATO, Russia did not have to fear that Finns would come and cut the road to Murmansk. Stopping the Northern passage with 50,000 troops would be enough
Now a million soldiers could not stop Finns
Thank you for playing along with our Mappy Things today
If you want to get back to the First of 3 Threads relating to Finland joining NATO, that is here (with link to Thread number 2):
I discussed the addition of Finland to NATO, how that complicates Russian military/strategy because of the proximity of Finland to Russia. How does Sweden impact Russia, because Sweden does not share a land border? Let's do Thread about Sweden now..
Sweden NATO Thread 2/
First, the SEA lanes part that relate to Finland joining NATO, esp relating to Baltic Sea, are equally relevant with Sweden, arguably more so with the Danish Straits. So here is my Sea Lanes part of Finland & NATO:
Tweeps? I promised when I wrote the Thread about Finland applying for NATO membership, that I might do another relating to Sweden
Let me first declare, I have not become a fan of Sweden! I am contractually & patriotically obligated to hate our former kings & rulers forever :-)
I have never been to Sweden. And by 'never' I mean at least not this year.
Jag pratar inte Svenska. "I do not speak Swedish." There. That is proof. I did not write Magna Cum Laude papers in Swedish language student exams when I graduated high school in Finland. That was not me!
I have no relatives living in Sweden. Ok. Maybe one. But I did not attend the Stockholm marathon when my nephew ran it. I was not there! You have no proof!
I insist my total undying hatred of all things Swedish. There. I said it
(far be it for me to ever say anything nice about our former lords and masters, Sweden. If I did, I would find my passport canceled & Finnish citizenship revoked. But ONE thing they did brilliantly, is Gotland class submarines. And subsequent stirling-engine boats)
...and Abba
(ok, TWO things Sweden did brilliantly. Stirling boats and Abba. Ah, Annfrida and Agnetha. And while those dudes are butt-ugly, they sure knew how to write brilliant music. The Winner Takes It All...)
So Stirling submarines and Abba
...and Marabou chocolate?
Damn!
Ok ok ok ok OK
Now with all due respect to our royal blue Finnish Fazer chocolote, & gorgeous blends of tastes in Belgian chocolates, there is only one best chocolate in the world & that is Marabou
But NOTHING else. Stirling boats, & Abba, and Marabou
So as Finland & Sweden join NATO, some are looking aft the land border but few are talking about the sea lane. A FAR worse problem for Russia. The Baltic Sea stops being a free passage to the Atlantic, and becomes a NATO lake without free passage
Baltic Thread About NATO 2/
Russia, the largest country by area, has 4 fleets. The Black Sea fleet we've seen sinking recently with Ukraine (yellow). There is their Pacific fleet (red). Their Arctic fleet from Murmansk (green). And their Baltic fleet, out of St Petersburg (blue)
Baltic Thread About NATO 3/
The Baltic fleet is headquartered at St Petersburg (some remember this city as Leningrad). It is the nearest sea port to the capital of Moscow, and St Peterburg is Russia's second largest city. And home port of their Baltic fleet
Today Finnish government announced intent to apply to NATO (Finnish Parliament will vote on it likely already Monday). Sweden will also apply. Both will be welcomed with open arms at NATO
There is talk of NATO-Russian border doubling. Let's do Thread
Mappy Thread About NATO 2/
The current border between NATO and Russia is about 1,000 km (600 miles) and when Finland joins NATO, Finland adds 1,200 km (800 miles) to that border. It sounds like the border does double. But actually, it is FAR FAR FAR worse for Russia than that...
Mappy Thread About NATO 3/
So to be clear, the stories you read are true. They just are misleading, in how bad it is for Russia. Reality is FAR FAR worse than doubling of the border
Spy satellites will of course be seen once they are in in orbit. BUT it takes a while to calculate that orbit, to figure out where it is headed - & what that spy satellite will see
Currently NATO can look at Plesetsk from Norway (green line) (900km) or Estonia (red line) (800km)
When Finland joins NATO, the distance to view sky above Plesetsk shrinks to 450 km (280 miles)
Why is this relevant? Because of the ALTITUDE where that spy satellite can be first observed, depends on the distance..