Thread by @FreddieRaynolds

7 months as a “Terra $UST Truther”

My longest 🧵documenting commentary in the months before collapse of this $60B project. Please seek professional help and do not read on if you are still dealing with losses. It will get better.

(Nov '21)

https://twitter.com/FreddieRaynolds/status/1465508811821785099?s=20&t=IkW10H0Gmiu79pIUTJeFew

Many have asked what motivated me to relentlessly criticize $UST here on Twitter for so long. I could point to my experience investing in similar projects (that failed) giving me a firm view the model was doomed, or maybe even this anecdote:

(Dec '21)

https://twitter.com/FreddieRaynolds/status/1474172480810065927?s=20&t=GbGISqRAraOyAV-qxVDYPA

Overall though I believe my core motivation was the belief that getting stablecoins right is what will allow a broader group of people to derive benefits from crypto's technological achievements. Also Do Kwon called me stupid + [redacted]...

Over time I came to realize $UST was maintaining stability because of centralized support, and when it was decentralized it was unstable. $UST had to choose:
-centralized stablecoin
-decentralized unstablecoin

(Jan '22)

https://twitter.com/FreddieRaynolds/status/1486975826180644867?s=20&t=VaoGxq26j-CriWwsiBh_7Q

Do/TFL chose centralization and with money from 3AC, jump, and others the 7 guys + a few beers central bank of Terra @LFG_org was created. To me the growth of @anchor_protocol deposits to $14.1B by May '22 represented trust in these entities not in the underlying model.

I posted about this shift when I noticed it and scaled back my long $LUNA short $UST position after some consideration. I remained short $UST off and on depending on market conditions.

(Feb '22)

https://twitter.com/FreddieRaynolds/status/1484223774354509830?s=20&t=PXzmhFD8kYsnYEIQk0NNtg

That same month it became clear $UST was following a path pre-billionaire Do had warned about:

(Feb '22)

https://twitter.com/FreddieRaynolds/status/1491905012460568577?s=20&t=CaFjZI4sGGr9NVwkNnNe0g

By March we had our first Terra Open Market Committee (@LFG_org) fakeout when a board member gave forward guidance of 20% yields for 2 years before walking it back 6 days later. Reason: drunk

(Mar '22)

https://twitter.com/FreddieRaynolds/status/1502838194475352065?s=20&t=CaFjZI4sGGr9NVwkNnNe0g

March is also the month @AlgodTrading and @GiganticRebirth made $1M/$10M bets with @stablekwon.

(Mar '22)

https://twitter.com/AlgodTrading/status/1524133865694113794?s=20&t=Kbi1GAp7sI8yAciLx2Jecg

In April $UST surpassed $BUSD's mkt cap, @justinsuntron announced 30% APY competitor $USDD, and @BeanstalkFarms was hacked sending $BEAN to $0. All these events put more eyes on $UST IMO.

(Apr '22)

https://twitter.com/FreddieRaynolds/status/1517140900576595969?s=20&t=CaFjZI4sGGr9NVwkNnNe0g

Meme break

(Apr '22)

https://twitter.com/FreddieRaynolds/status/1515908959072309251?s=20&t=CaFjZI4sGGr9NVwkNnNe0g

I don't think it's worth writing a summary of the bank run itself. Feel free to scroll back on my timeline for that. In short what started as $1B of withdrawals did turn into $10B+ of withdrawals...

(May '22)

https://twitter.com/FreddieRaynolds/status/1523065361138319360?s=20&t=eGlGYC3APixnCJbE2980vQ

Also hope @TwitterSupport fixes their process. It's inexcusable that during my real time reporting I was shut down for 12 hours. Even after appeal it was decided that calling someone a clown who was sharing fake info constituted harassment??

(May '22)

https://twitter.com/FreddieRaynolds/status/1524016726060507137?s=20&t=IkW10H0Gmiu79pIUTJeFew

That brings us to today, followers 6k -> 41k this month after a few Terra tweets went viral. Summary of how different types of people interpreted my widely shared thread in a jpeg:

https://twitter.com/FreddieRaynolds/status/1463960623402913797?s=20&t=eCkwFWaYTzusxajYj_Wrag

At this point I want to call out @mattysino @AlgodTrading @tbr90 @MonetSupply @TusharJain_ @hasufl @Galois_Capital @0xHamz @DU09BTC @GiganticRebirth in no particular order. All publicly refused to bend knee for crypto's false idol. Those who are doxxed took great risk. Respect.

Also I debated calling out those who either wrote exceedingly misleading information about $UST or dismissed criticism in an unnecessarily aggressive way (large accounts only ofc). For now though not worth piling on especially for those who lost 8-10 figures for themselves/LPs.

Some have asked if they could contribute in thanks for my Tweets on Terra. I live a comfortable life and am not in need of charity.

Also not opposed to receiving large sums of money from anyone who made/saved a fortune. 19.5% of any Tweet sales on @Cent will go to #LUNAtics who made Freddie memes like the one below. Will accept highest offers at 9pm PST on May 22. NFTs are worthless.

https://twitter.com/Mt_G0X/status/1507466706565754881?s=20&t=08tfXj2hqCHsnfoT8UaV6A

For serious thoughts/reflections on this situation I would direct you towards @Arthur_0x's thread. I agree with all he said.

https://twitter.com/Arthur_0x/status/1525812289601171456?s=20&t=HHoUtQboFzs5mtW1Gl2OZg

It's been a journey everyone

https://twitter.com/FreddieRaynolds/status/1502499803443441665?s=20&t=QELV0GO9nxBQC-f-QS2ojg