Ukraine published documents reportedly from Russia's 1st Tank Army showing its losses through March 15. It lists: 61 KIA, 209 WIA, 44 MIA, and 96 taken POW.
Incredibly, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division's 1st Tank Regiment allegedly lost 45 T-72B3M tanks. facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
The 1st Tank Regiment reportedly had 93 tanks, so this would mean it lost almost half of them in the first three weeks of the war. The regiment's commander Col Lapin is the son of the commander of the Central Military District and he received an award. 2/
Regarding the 4th Tank Division, it says the 12th Tank Regiment lost 18 T-80U and 13th Tank Regiment lost 47 T-80UE tanks, and 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment lost 6 T-80BV. The T-80U/UE numbers track with @oryxspioenkop 's numbers. 3/ oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
The 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade reportedly lost 30 vehicles, including 9 T-90A tanks, and the 96th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade (regiment?) lost 10 vehicles. This tracks with losses ID'd by @CITeam_en. 4/
The 13th Tank Regiment should have had 83 T-80U/UE tanks, so it also lost half of its tanks if this is accurate. The 423rd MRR lost 44 vehicles (including a battalion's worth of BMP-2), 1st MRR lost 29 (25 BTR-80) and 15th MRR lost 24 (14 BMP-2). 5/
In unit terms:
The 1st and 15th MRR both lost 2 companies worth of armored vehicles, the 423MRR lost a battalion, 27th MRB lost almost a company of BTR and T-90A. 1st and 13th Tank regiments each lost 1 1/2 battalions of tanks and 12th Tank regiment lost 2 companies of tanks. 6/
If these figures are accurate, the 1st Tank Army lost 131 tanks in the first 3 weeks of this war, which is one regiment plus another battalion worth of tanks. 7/
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I'm very interested in looking at force ratios from this war, but Russia's invasion force was far smaller than the numbers here suggest (probably 80k troops in the 125 BTGs) and Russia's strategy didn't mass its forces at critical points. So it often did not achieve 3:1 or 2:1.
Ukrainian forces smartly retreated back to more defensible terrain and cities during the opening stage of the war. Once Russian forces progressed farther into Ukraine, its forces became more dispersed and less supported, and they couldn't achieve numerical superiority. 2/
In some ways, we're only seeing a useful force ratio comparison in the fighting in the Donbas where Ukrainian forces are defending and Russian forces are conducting a deliberate, and better supported, offensive. But Russia doesn't appear to have a numerical advantage there. 3/
Some prominent Russian defense commentators on Telegram are criticizing the “military genius” Russian officer responsible for the failed river crossing on the Severskyi Donets, specifically for bunching up so many vehicles in a small area by the river. t.me/voenkorKotenok…
One of them notes that Russian forces previously conducted a successful crossing of the river near Izyum (he said he took part in the operation). He questions whether this was idiocy or sabotage to make such a mistake 3 months into the war. 2/
RSOTM's Vladlen Tatarsky said until the officer responsible for this mistake answers for it, there will be no reforms in the Russian military. He said the offensive in the Donbas is being hindered by a lack of effective intel from UAVs and the performance by Russian generals. 3/