What has Putin done for Russians lately? THREAD 1/
He has turned Ukraine -- a country with deep historic and cultural bonds to Russia -- into an enemy forever. 2/
He has squandered Russia's military assets -- including Russia's most precious assets, young men -- on fighting a non-existent threat of Nazis in Ukraine. 3/
He has triggered comprehensive sanctions on Russia and Russians that will impede economic growth for years and maybe decades to come. 4/
He has reunited the West, reinvigorated NATO, and expanded NATO. 5/
He has damaged his own reputation as a strategic thinker and leader of a great power in China, India, the Middle East, and Africa. In Europe, Putin is now a pariah & will be for as long as he's in power. 6/
He has tarnished Russians' image around the world. Every Russian traveling abroad will live with the stigma for years to come. 7/
In a democracy, Putin would face a real challenge for reelection. He may have accomplished some things in his first 3 terms. But his 4th team has been a complete disaster. 8/
But Putin understands that well. That's why he tried to kill Navalny and then arrested him. That's why he shut down independent media. These are acts of a weak and paranoid leader. 9/
Putin's giant mistakes are first and foremost tragic for Ukrainians. But they also are tragic for Russians, even if many of them, watching Putin's propaganda channels, don't know it. 10. END THREAD
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People keep speculating on Putin's imminent use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. I have no access to secret intel on Putin's state of mind right now. But if he is still thinking rationally, then what would be the point? THREAD 1/
If attacked, would Zelensky and Ukrainians stop fighting? No way. 2/
Would Biden and the West pressure Zelensky to capitulate because Putin used a tactical nuclear weapon? Highly unlikely. 3/
Some still believe that if the West stops sending weapons to Ukraine, and Zelensky gives Putin what he wants, there will be peace. I think the opposite. Such gestures will just encourage Putin to demand more. But don't believe me. Read this famous American strategist. 1/ THREAD
“Appeasement contradicts the dictates of offensive realism and therefore it is a fanciful and dangerous strategy. It is unlikely to transform a dangerous foe into a kinder, nicer, opponent, much less a peace-loving state." 2/
"Indeed, appeasement is likely to whet, not shrink, an aggressor’s appetite for conquest... An appeased state is likely to interpret any power concession by another state as a sign of weakness... The appeased state is then likely to continue pushing for more concessions." 3/
As Ive written many times before, the use of force for democratic regime change rarely works, and therefore the US should not do it. We are witnessing in Ukraine that the use of force for autocratic regime change also doesn't work. Hope that lesson is being learned in Beijing. 1/
What concrete security, economic, and ideological objectives for Russian citizens has Putin's invasion of Ukraine advanced? I see none. THREAD 1/
Are Russians living in Ukraine more secure, "liberated from the Nazis" ? Of course, not. Putin's soldiers have killed thousands -- maybe tens of thousands -- of ethnic Russians and destroyed many of their cities to rubble. 2/
Are Russians living in Russia more secure? No. The Russian army has suffered catastrophic losses of soldiers and weapons inside Ukraine. 2/
"...the US and European sanction lists should be expanded dramatically....Thousands of positions in the Russian government, Russian state-owned enterprises, including state-owned and state-controlled media, as well as all members of the corporate boards must be added" THREAD 1/
"This list should include, at a minimum, those at the deputy minister level, all generals and colonels in the armed forces, police, and intelligence services, and anyone at the vice president level at state-owned enterprises." 2/
Senior officials & personalities being paid by Putin and state-controlled media companies also must be sanctioned, until they resign. Any member of United Russia and other political parties that support Putin’s invasion also should be placed automatically on the sanctions list.3/
From 1/2022: "...policymakers also underestimate the Russian leader’s tolerance for risky behavior, often assuming he will respond predictably to threats and inducements. But Putin consistently acts belligerently even when the costs would seem to outweigh the benefits." 1/
"Putin is far more of a revisionist leader than his Chinese counterpart. In his view, he is at war with the United States, its allies, and the multilateral institutions that Washington created and currently anchors." 2/
"Putin no longer desires cooperation with the West or even a respected place within the liberal international order. Rather, he seeks the destruction of that U.S.-led order." 3/