Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 16, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
This is a pretty important question I'll try and answer.👇

Thread🧵

1/
The lethal effects of artillery were not put on a really scientific basis until WW2.

There were lots of reasons for this involving money & politics I won't go into.

When the operational analysts to their first bite. They made charts like this mapping fragment impacts.
2/
The previous chart wasn't accurate because because it mapped a static detonation.

Analysts knew these maps were wrong because of damage inflicted in WW2.

It took early vacuum tube digital computers in the 1950's to accurately model how velocity altered that frag-pattern.
3/
What analysts were trying to achieve was a consistent modeling of airburst frag-patterns to kill infantry in trenches.

Then this information was fed into engineering shell designs to get the metallurgy & design of shells
4/
...such that they consistently made fragments of the right size/velocity to kill infantry over larger areas.

Starting in the 1970's through early 2000's this technological avenue was abandoned for the deployment of cluster munitions.
5/
The movement to ban cluster weapons lead to a push to replace lots of little bombs with more efficient fragmentation with 40 years better computer technology, explosives & metallurgy.

This Rheinmetall infographic shows what that means in terms of shell lethality.
6/
PBX4 IM is a insensitive plastic explosive that fragments steel more efficiently than TNT.

# Pre-Frag means the number of engineered fragments the shell produces. Now read the infographic bottom line from left to right.
7/
Russian 152mm shells have not ridden the increased lethality technological development train because Russia kept artillery cluster munitions.

The M795 155mm shell has. And it much more lethal on a shell for shell basis than a Russian 152mm shell because it did.

8/
There is a price to be paid for US M795 shell being both more lethal in its fragmentation and safer to use because of the explosives.

It costs more than a Russian 152mm shell.

There are reasons why the defense budget costs more for fewer weapons.

This is one of them.
9/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 22
The Ukrainian "refresh rate" on it's drone EW systems has been about two weeks since late 2023

What the Russians said right here is that it took a month to set up this attack⬇️

Ukraine & QRCP🧵
1/3
In the late 1960's to 1973 Arab-Israeli War US EW contractors could meet a two week cycle time with "quick reaction capability program" to bypass normal procurement procedures and speed urgently needed electronic systems to the battlefield.

2/3
Given the the triple handicaps of Silicon Valley practice of outsourcing of engineering talent, counting foreigners as 'diversity hires,' and ITAR restrictions for defense work.

The USA lacks the electronic engineering talent it did in the Apollo/Vietnam era to do 'QRCP.'

3/3
Read 5 tweets
Apr 20
The mass production of China's "Corvus Mulberry" tank landing barges proceeds apace in a shipyard also building freighters for a Taiwanese shipping firm.

Taiwanese capitalists are literally paying the Chinese shipyard that is building the means CCP will use to invade Taiwan!
1/
The US Navy doesn't have the tankers, salvage ships, tugs, fire boats & destroyer tenders to attempt running China's drone & anti-ship missile gauntlet when the CCP invades Taiwan.

China collapsing from a 3-4 year US naval blockade will disgorge Taiwan from the CCP's grip.
2/ Image
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Will someone please explain to me why the US Navy should impale it's carrier battle groups on Chinese anti-ship hypersonic, ballistic and cruise missiles to rescue Taiwan from this foolishness?

Distant naval blockade will collapse China's economy for for far fewer US lives.

3/3 Image
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Read 4 tweets
Apr 20
The mass production of China's "Corvu Mulberry" tank landing barges proceeds apace in a shipyard also building freighters for a Taiwanese shipping firm.

Taiwanese capitalists are literally paying the Chinese shipyard that are building the means CCP will use to invade them.

1/
Will someone please explain to me why the US Navy should impale it's carrier battle groups on Chinese anti-ship hypersonic, ballistic and cruise missiles to rescue Taiwan from this foolishness?

Distant naval blockade will collapse China's economy for far fewer US lives.
2/ Image
Image
Image
The US Navy doesn't have the tankers, salvage ships, tugs, fire boats & destroyer tenders to attempt running China's drone & anti-ship missile gauntlet when the CCP invades Taiwan.

China collapsing from a 3-4 year US naval blockade will disgorge Taiwan from the CCP's grip.

3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 19
It turns out that, in addition to "TAF-10" USMC SCR-270 radars, the USMC 90mm Heavy AA Battalion SCR-584 radars saw quite a few of the Japanese Balloon Radar Decoys at Okinawa in/near Hagushi Beach, Yonton & Kadena air fields.

WW2 Radar Decoy🧵
1/ Image
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The Marine AA troops didn't know what they were, but their descriptions match known aerodynamic templates for them.  

The balloon decoy tended to fall through different levels of wind direction & updrafts.  So the decoy often went in different directions than the ground wind.
2/ Image
The 1st Marine Provisional Anti-Aircraft Group Hqtrs saw the radar decoy balloons most often when the Japanese engaged in a night time tactic they referred to as "Ice-Tong attacks."

Pairs of Japanese planes established themselves in orbits just outside effective 90mm gun

3/ Image
Read 14 tweets
Apr 19
There was a lot more electromagnetic deception in WW2 than is in US Military histories.

The silence on such matters is jarring.

This text report (left) is from USS Pennsylvania in June 1944 during the Mariannes campaign describing the decoys drawn by Section 22 (right).

1/ Image
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The one of the previous drawing is of a captured decoy from Roi island in March 1944. 

Roi was subject to several IJN air raids using this decoy, as USS New Mexico reported its effects 14 Feb 1944, later reported in a Section 22 Current Statement dated 3 April 1944.
2/ Image
Somehow the report in General Douglas MacArthur's Section 22 radar hunters current statement was scrubbed from all the Feb-March 1944 period after action reports and war diaries of USS New Mexico I've checked.

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 18
There is an tragi-comic story behind this Russian foreign ministry claim.

The Russian use the term "direct participation" because of a lie by Chancellor Scholz a year ago when he claimed the computer system used to program the Taurus missiles...
1/
...was a huge supercomputer in Germany that could not be replicated for Ukraine.

But German computer scientists found an article that described the 20 year old computer system used by Taurus.

2/ Image
BLUF: Today that Taurus mission planning software could be operated on a MacBookPro.

But the lie was never retracted by Scholz and the Russians still use it for propaganda.

So Russians can not exploit Scholz's lie to scare Germans, because they know it's a lie.🤡

3/3 Image
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Read 4 tweets

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