Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 16, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
This is a pretty important question I'll try and answer.👇

Thread🧵

1/
The lethal effects of artillery were not put on a really scientific basis until WW2.

There were lots of reasons for this involving money & politics I won't go into.

When the operational analysts to their first bite. They made charts like this mapping fragment impacts.
2/
The previous chart wasn't accurate because because it mapped a static detonation.

Analysts knew these maps were wrong because of damage inflicted in WW2.

It took early vacuum tube digital computers in the 1950's to accurately model how velocity altered that frag-pattern.
3/
What analysts were trying to achieve was a consistent modeling of airburst frag-patterns to kill infantry in trenches.

Then this information was fed into engineering shell designs to get the metallurgy & design of shells
4/
...such that they consistently made fragments of the right size/velocity to kill infantry over larger areas.

Starting in the 1970's through early 2000's this technological avenue was abandoned for the deployment of cluster munitions.
5/
The movement to ban cluster weapons lead to a push to replace lots of little bombs with more efficient fragmentation with 40 years better computer technology, explosives & metallurgy.

This Rheinmetall infographic shows what that means in terms of shell lethality.
6/
PBX4 IM is a insensitive plastic explosive that fragments steel more efficiently than TNT.

# Pre-Frag means the number of engineered fragments the shell produces. Now read the infographic bottom line from left to right.
7/
Russian 152mm shells have not ridden the increased lethality technological development train because Russia kept artillery cluster munitions.

The M795 155mm shell has. And it much more lethal on a shell for shell basis than a Russian 152mm shell because it did.

8/
There is a price to be paid for US M795 shell being both more lethal in its fragmentation and safer to use because of the explosives.

It costs more than a Russian 152mm shell.

There are reasons why the defense budget costs more for fewer weapons.

This is one of them.
9/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jun 14
Fearless prediction: N. Ireland will be 90%(+) migrant free in 3 months.

It is now clear to me that what we are seeing in N. Ireland is a sectarian pogrom.

One which will in 3 months be utterly successful in driving out 90%(+)...

N.I. "Troubles Pogrom"🧵
1/
...of the migrants the UK government has placed there. Then Liverpool will be next.

The UK government utterly failed to stop mutual Catholic/Protestant pogroms in the late 1960's early 1970's troubles.  When half N. Irish population was nominally...

2/
...on-side with UK/N.I. law enforcement. The situation is far worse now.

Currently the vast majority of white middle and working classes in Northern Ireland are on-side with the anti-migrant pogrom...

3/
Read 19 tweets
Jun 13
The problem with this analysis is it leaves out the drone & power projection capabilities of the PLA and Taiwan's highly vulnerable off shore islands.

PLA & PLAN parachute, heliborne & marine landing forces can take all of those small islands as a coup de main for drone, SAM & MLRS bases.
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The ability of Taiwan to operate it's HIMARS is tied directly to it's ability to deny China drone air superiority inside Taiwanese air space.

China can throw 1 million OWA drones to suppress Taiwanese air defenses to take those off shore islands.

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The PLA holding the Pescadores, Green and Orchard islands as launch platforms for HQ-9 SAM's, heavy MLRS rockets and Hornet class truck hunting drones means it can overwatch & reduce Taiwanese beach defenses, all while denying air space to ROCAF fighters.

3/3 Image
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Read 4 tweets
Jun 11
Russia faces a logistical dilemma in occupied Ukraine for which it has no good solutions.

Crimea is a de facto island fed by road and rail bridges Ukraine can now destroy at will, and Russia cannot stop.

And Ukraine is destroying those bridges.

1/ Image
Russia's air defense has suffered a nearly complete "Lanchester Square Collapse" proximate with the Ukrainian mass deployment of both 150 km range AI truck hunting drones and bridge busting FP-2 OWA drones.

Map H/T United24media
2/3 Image
Any route Russian trucks take to Crimea will result in parking lots near replacement pontoon bridging for both those kinds of drones to exploit.

"Trucks that mass together...die together.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jun 10
Saving Space Access From Kessler Syndrome

Elon Musk’s plan for XAI satellite data centers, and all use of space for any purpose, faces inevitable collapse until a solution emerges for the problem of Kessler Syndrome (see Wikipedia). 🧵

1/
This will occur when enough collisions of small orbital debris pieces from old dead satellites hits the steadily increasing number of new satellites until the whole thing spirals into mass collisions.

Kessler Syndrome computes that this will destroy all existing

2/ Image
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...communications, navigation, observation and research satellites in low/medium orbit, and prevent all further satellites launched, for 40+ years, until enough pieces fall out of orbit into the Earth’s atmosphere.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Jun 9
Do you remember all the 2023 US Navalist accounts o X that screamed at @johnkonrad and I about pointing out the containerized anti-ship OWA drone threat to the US fleet.

Welcome to 2026 Ukrainian anti-ship OWA drone threat, you US Navalist yo-yo's. ⬇️

1/2
"Operation Spiderweb with Chinese characteristics" is coming for you all, and we have the receipts.

We need a whole lot of air defense guns everywhere to stop drones that you guys still refuse to fund.

2/ Image
For fun and reference of guns versus missile air defense, this YouTube test scenario pits 100 Shahed-136 one-way attack drones against the historic US Navy Task Force 38.1 from 1944.


3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jun 3
Just...no. The 8th AF fudged its accuracy numbers.

It excluded "gross error" bombing runs beyond 3,000 feet from the target. Which were above 10% of all 1944 bombing runs.

Below, the inner circle is what a 1944 1,000 foot (304m) CEP in WW2 looked like when dropped from 400(+) four engine heavy bombers.
1/Image
Using this document:

THE UNITED STATES STRATEGIC BOMBING SURVEY
Bombing Accuracy, USAAF Heavy and Medium Bombers in the ETO
MILITARY ANALYSIS DIVISION
First Edition 3 November 1945
Second Edition January 1947

You find both mission failures & gross errors were "excluded data"
2/ Image
And that both increased altitude and the number of combat boxes involved made CEP worse.

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets

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