Thread by @henryolsenEPPC

Ding ding ding! The polls are closed in Kentucky's Eastern Time Zone and I'm here for the night!

I'm live tweeting tonight from the @CaribeHilton's @Mortons steak house in beautiful San Juan Puerto Rico, where I just got off a panel at this year's @TheAAPC #2022Pollies!

1/x

The first race I'm looking at is the Democratic primary for KY 3, which became open when incumbent John Yarmuth retired. The race is between progressive state Rep. Attica Scott and mainstream liberal state Sen. Morgan McGarvey. McGarvey is heavily favored.

2/x

McGarvey jumps out to an early 2-1 lead on 6,000 early votes. That probably flatters him a bit; I would expect early voters to be whiter and better off than the district as a whole. But it would be a surprise if Scott makes it close.

3/x

KY 3 is basically Louisville. McGarvey represents about 16% of the seat, the whiter, Democratic, better off parts of Louisville. Scott represents a 50% black seat that comprises about 5-6% of the pop, but a bit more of the likely Dem electorate. Seats do not overlap.

4/x

Your weekly reminder that humming The Girl from Ipanema is a great way to stay calm as election chaos erupts around you.



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Elevator scene with "The Girl from Ipanema" background music.
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5/x

As we wait for more KY results, a reminder that the polls close in NC at 7:30 ET. Lots to cover there: NC Senate plus loads of House races. Will Madison Cawthorn lose re-election? Will Trump's endorsee in NC 13, Bo Hines, win? What about the Davis-Smith matchup in NC 1?

6/x

At this rate, I'll be calling races in NC before I see another vote drop in KY 3!

Just 15 minutes to go for polls to close in NC. They have a lot of EV which I expect to drop quickly.

7/x

Polls are closed in the Tarheel State! C'mon NC, let's show KY how Election Night is done.

8/x

First EV from NC! Alamance County, home to the illustrious Annie Savoy, going for Budd 49-34 over Mark Walker. Both have represented Alamance in Congress over the years, which is why Walker is doing so well there.

9/x

Three more counties drop their EV. Budd winning all easily. Prepare for an early call.

10/x

Budd is 8 for 8 in county EV so far. McCrory hasn't come close in any. Budd ahead by 32.

11/x

Budd wins a few more county EV. Ahead statewide by 31.5, closest outside of Alamance so far is Buncombe, home to UNC Asheville, which he wins by only 48-34 over McCrory. It's clear who's going to win. I'd like to wait for McCrory's home county, Mecklenburg, before calling.

12/x

Cawthorn alert! He's losing the EV from Henderson County, the home for both him and St. Sen. Chuck Edwards. This is a great sign for Edwards, but I need to see him show strength outside his base.

13/x

IT'S OV-AH! Mecklenburg hasn't dropped but Budd is winning every county by big margins and the E Day vote will probably give him even larger ones. Ted Budd will be the GOP nominee for Senate in NC.

14/x

More counties in NC 11. Cawthorn is winning the far west but Edwards has won two counties neighboring Henderson. Edwards leads by 12 but there's lots to drop.

Buncombe should be strong for Edwards (in his SD) but it's the rest of the CD that will determine who wins.

15/x

A couple thousand more votes from KY 3 and McGarvey is still up 67-33. Waiting for a bit more of the vote to drop but it's hard to see a Scott win.

16/x

Edwards now leads by 8 as a few more counties' EV drops.Buncombe still out, and then there's the EDay vote which has broken sharply for MAGA candidates elsewhere this year.

17/x

Trump-endorsed Bo Hines leads with 31% in NC 13. Kelly Daughtry and DeVan Barbour are fighting for second. Reminder: you only need 30% to avoid a runoff in NC. Looking good for Hines, especially if the E Day vote breaks MAGA as it has elsewhere in the country.

18/x

NC 11 - Edwards' lead is now 7% but Buncombe, where he should win the EV big, has not reported. I'm pretty sure now he will lead the EV and be over 30%. The question is whether the E Day vote bails out Cawthorn.

19/x

NC 1 D race - Sen. Davis is a ahead by a lot but nothing from Sen. Smith's seat has reported. Still, looking good for Davis, who was endorsed by retiring Rep. Butterfield.

20/x

McCrory has won only one county's EV - his base of Mecklenburg, and that by only 5%. He likely will lose that as the E Day vote reports.

21/x

PA has now closed its polls! They typically don't report very quickly but I will be checking to see what drops.

22/x

Edwards now leads Cawthorn by 10.6 as Bumcombe gives him a 23% lead over the incumbent. Cawthorn needs a huge E Day swing to bail him out.

23/x

Edwards leads by 4,200 votes in the two counties in his SD, Buncombe and Henderson. His lead overall is 4,100. Watch this pattern as the E Day vote reports.

24/x

First votes from PA! Dave McCormick wins the EV big in his old home region, Pittsburgh's Allegheny County. He leads OZ 43-23 there.

25/x

IT'S OV-AH! Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has won the Dem Senate nomination in PA. He is beating Rep. Connor Lamb by 18% in Lamb's base of Allegheny. If you can't win your base, you can't win.

26/x

The foibles of early voting. Melissa Hart, who dropped out of the race this weekend, is leading in her old home base of Allegheny County. She should also do well in the EV in neighboring Butler County. If Mastriano wins by less than her Votes, hoo boy.

27/x

EV from Northampton County (Bethlehem) gives US Atty Bill Swain the lead and Mastriano is not in the top three!

28/x

NC 1 update. Davis is thrashing Smith 71-25. Should be an easy win but let's see a largish county from Smith's SD first. On the GOP side, the Smith-Roberson battle is tight: Smith leads 38-30.

29/x

IT'S OV-AH! McGarvey still up 67-33 in KY 3. Even if that underreports the vote from Scott's area she's not making this up. McGarvey is an establishment win tonight and is going to Congress.

30/x

NC 13 - Bo Hines has 32% as all 4 counties have dropped their EV. That's enough to avoid a runoff if replicates that in the E Day vote. He's carried 3 counties, losing only in Johnston.

31/x

NC 11 - Cawthorn wins the last county's EV so Edwards' lead is after all the EV is 9.3%. Watch what happens in the counties outside his central district core in the E Day vote.

32/x

PA EV is typically slow to report, but Bill McSwain leads on very small returns so far. Mastriano in 4th. McCormick also leads by 13% over Oz. So far though it's mainly Philly, Pittsburgh and their burbs. McCormick is leading in all of them with Oz 2d.

33/x

IT'S OV-AH! St. Sen. Don Davis has easily dispatched former St. Sen. Erica Smith for the Democratic nomination in NC 1. Davis will advance to face the winner of the GOP primary, which right now is 2020 nominee and MAGA-friendly Sandy Smith.

34/x

Cawthorn has cut Edwards' lead to 3,000 votes as the E Day vote predictably shifts his way. But some of the rural counties where he's run best are now largely in while Edwards' counties still have lots of votes to drop. Tipping in Edwards' favor.

35/x

A very ominous sign for Cawthorn: Transylvania County is 100% in and the EDay vote did not shift it in his direction. Edwards won it 50-25. Cawthorn needs big E Day shifts in Bumcombe and Henderson to pull this out.

36/x

Votes counting typically slow in PA but McCormick still leads in the EV and is showing he can do well in rural PA too. He leads Oz by 11% but still loads of counties to report their EV much less any place reporting its E Day vote. Patience, grasshopper.

37/x

Oz winning the EV in a couple of rural counties and is now ahed in the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area. Barnette winning Montgomery (where she lives, apparently) and a small rural county. Like sands through the hourglass, these are the election nights of our lives.

38/x

For PA Gov, Mastriano is storming up as rural counties (including two from his base) report. He's now in 2d behind McSwain with Barletta (who's killing it in his old CD) in 3d.

39/x

NC 11 - The EDay vote is pulling Cawthorn back into it. He now leads in every county except Edwards' core three counties. But Edwards still leads by 2,700 votes and the votes out are still weighted to his strong regions. Close but edge Edwards.

40/x

In the PA Gov race, Mastriano has now taken the lead as he sweeps rural PA. He's losing metro Philly to McSwain and the Wyoming Valley (Scranton/Wilkes Barre) to Barletta but is rolling up margins in PA's "T".

41/x

Meanwhile, GOP party favorites Lisa Scheller and Jim Bognet lead in their races in PA 7 and 8, respectively. If they prevail they will go on to meet Dem incumbents Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright in 2 of the hardest seats House Dems have to hold.

42/x

GOP party favorite Jeremy Shaeffer is easily leading his race in PA 17, where he will try to capture Connor Lamb's old House seat if he prevails.

In PA 12, progressive favorite state Rep. Summer Lee is losing big to Steve Irwin.

43/x

McCormick still clinging to a 6,000 vote lead over Oz as the EV slowly trickles in. Will be interesting to see if Barnette surges when the E Day vote arrives.

44/x

Mastriano well in front now as huge margins from rural PA propel him forward. He's winning 40-60% of the vote in most of these counties, more than offsetting much lower totals in metro Philly.

45/x

In PA 7, Lisa Scheller leads only 54-46 but her home county (Luzerne) has not yet reported its EV.

In PA 8, Jim Bognet (Trump-endorsed and the 2020 nominee) leads in both counties in so far.

46/x

Cawthorn keeps narrowing the gap but it does not look good for him. Edwards still leads by 1,700 votes (2%) and the bulk of the vote out is in his SD, Buncombe and Henderson. The EDay vote will have to break unusually strongly for Cawthorn there for him to eke out a win.

47/x

In NC 1's GOP race, MAGA favorite Sandy Smith leads more establishment conservative Sandy Roberson 32-27. The key here is whether Smith breaks the 30% mark she needs to avoid a runoff.

48/x

NC 13 - Trump-endorsed Bo Hines has 32.6% with about a third of the vote in. Same consideration as in NC 1 - he needs 30% to avoid a runoff.

49/x

IT'S OV-AH! Doug Mastriano will win the PA GOP nod for Governor. He's got an 18% lead now and he has been gaining even in the suburbs as the E Day vote arrives.

McCormick still leads in the Senate race, though, which means there are a lot of Mastriano-McCormick voters.

50/x

In PA 8, Jim Bognet leads 2-1 over his foe but Luzerne has not yet reported. His opponent, Mike Marsicano is the former mayor of Hazleton in that county.

51/x

In PA 12, progressive hope state Rep. Summer Lee is closing the gap with Steve Irwin but still trails by 10.5%.

On a lighter note, white progressive former stripper Alexandra Hunt is getting wiped out by incumbent Dwight Evans. The CD is Philly's Black seat.

52/x

IT'S OV-AH! Chris Deluzio has won the Democratic nod to replace Connor Lamb in PA 17. This is the Dems' best chance to hold a PA marginal House seat but it is still likely to be competitive.

He will face Jeremy Schaffer, a local GOP officeholder who has won his primary.

53/x

IT'S OV-AH! Madison Cawthorn has lost renomination in NC 11 to state Senator Chuck Edwards. Edwards's vote is holding firm in Buncombe and Henderson and Cawthorn will not overturn Edwards' 1,600 vote lead (he might shrink it).

Edwards has 33.5% and thereby avoids a runoff.

54/x

Cawthorn will close the gap. Henderson has now pretty much reported and the remaining votes are from rural Cawthorn territory. The problem is there likely aren't enough of them. Extrapolating from the current totals suggests Edwards' 1,600 vote lead will dip below 1,000.

55/x

Put another way, the New York Times estimates there are 7-8,000 votes left. Cawthorn needs to gain 1,600 votes on Edwards from that total. That's very very unlikely given the margins in those places so far.

56/x

Votes are now coming in fast in PA Sen. Barnette is not going to do it. Oz has gained as E Day votes have dropped and she's in 3d, 38,000 votes behind McCormick. Oz is only 8,900 votes (2%) back. Lots of time for things to change in the 2-man race.

57/x

McCormick is doing well in most areas of PA, but the bulk of his margin is from his old home area of metro Pittsburgh. The big counties there have reported more of the vote than most others. Big q - how does McC fare in the metro Philly E Day vote?

58/x

Some PA House races -

PA 7 - Lisa Scheller still leads 53-47. The counties she leads in have more of the vote out, so she'll likely win. But this is not a convincing margin for someone who's raised $2 million.

PA 8 - Jim Bognet is sweeping the district and should win.

59/x

PA 12 - Summer Lee keeps closing the gap and now trails by only 4.4%. Lee is a Black state rep while Irwin in white and does not represent any part of the seat, so if her areas are reporting earlier Irwin could still hold on. If not, this will be close.

60/x

PA Sen - McCormick leads by about 10,000 and 7,500 of that is from metro Pittsburgh. Those votes are almost all in, so he needs to do well in the E Day vote elsewhere to hold on. Still awaiting lots of votes from central PA and metro Philly.

61/x

The polls are now closed in Mountain Time zone, which means most of ID and a little of OR are done voting.

62/x

Oz now trails by only 8,400 votes as rural PA E Day votes start to drop. Hold onto your hats!

63/x

In NC 1 and NC 13, it's likelier than not that MAGA candidates Sandy Smith and Bo Hines will just squeak over the 30% they need to avoid a runoff. Not calling either, but the run of votes and what is out suggest they will break that mark.

64/x

Oz keeps chipping away at McCormick's lead but he is not getting huge lifts from the EDay vote. Small lifts everywhere may be enough, but it's increasingly coming down to the EDay vote in metro Philly, central PA, and Erie.

65/x

In PA 7, Lisa Scheller's lead is down to 1,000 votes as she lost ground in her home county of Luzerne on some E Day votes. This is uncomfortably tight and if this happens in Northampton's EDay vote all bets are off.

66/x

In PA 12, Summer Lee barely trails in Allegheny County but is getting walloped in suburban Westmoreland. But the votes out tip heavily in favor of Allegheny, which means that Irwin's 3,000 vote lead cannot be considered safe yet.

67/x

McCormick's lead is holding at around 8,000 votes, but loads still to come. His lead is all from 5 metro Pitts counties (Allegheny, Butler, Washington, Westmoreland, and Beaver) and only Westmoreland has significant votes left.

68/x

McCormick's lead grows a bit as EDay votes drop in Lancaster, Chester, Westmoreland and Somerset. That's terrible for Oz and for the first time tonight I think McCormick is the favorite. Lots of time to see what else happens, but the E Day vote is not saving Oz yet.

69/x

Oz pushes some of that back as EDay votes from Adams and York give him an edge, but he's not gaining enough in enough places to make me think he can pull this out. Not calling it, mind you, but I'd rather be McCormick right now.

70/x

IT'S OV-AH! Sandy Smith will eke over the 30% mark and win the GOP nod in NC 1 without a runoff. She will face state Sen. Don Davis in the fall in this Dem-leaning seat.

71/x

IT'S OV-AH! I should have called PA 8's GOP nod for Jim Bognet long ago, but Luzerne is now in and he won big. The AP called it already and I'm following suit.

72/x

In PA 7, Lisa Scheller's lead grew by a few hundred on E Day votes from Northampton. She should win now, but I'll wait for one more drop before calling it. Way too close for comfort.

73/x

Summer Lee has pulled into a 43 vote lead over Steve Irwin in PA 12! This is why you don't call races too early based on the EV when you know demographic patterns or ideological effects on the E Day vote are still out.

74/x

If the New York Times estimates are accurate, Irwin has a shot because more votes are out in Westmoreland county - where he leads by 39% - than in Allegheny. But Lee's been gaining big on E Day votes from Allegheny. Less than 1,000 votes either way.

75/x

This is what I've been waiting for in PA Sen. Oz gains big on McCormick in Bucks County, a part of metro Philly with a big blue-collar vote base. He's now only behind by 3,900. He also surged on the final E Day vote from upper-income Chester, cutting McC's margin there.

76/x

Oz still has plenty of votes out in York and Franklin counties while McC's big counties are all in. Watch Delaware County, another Philly burb with a big blue-collar, pro-Trump section.

77/x

McC's lead now down to 2,300 votes. Late votes in Montgomery County also giving Oz extra votes. If this continues in Westmoreland and Delaware, two McC counties with lots of EDay votes left, then a narrow Oz victory is possible.

78/x

Here's the path to an Oz victory. (1) Keep current margins in Franklin and York when they fully report (+900 votes v McC); (2) keep current margins in Bucks when it reports (+1,000); win remaining vote in Delaware by +5% over McC (+1,400); run even everywhere else.

79/x

2,700 vote lead for McCormick as final votes from Dauphin Westmoreland and Northampton drop. Bucks and Delaware are the big vote banks left.

80/x

In ID, Gov Brad Little and Rep. Mike Simpson are crushing their primary foes in the Boise (Ada County) EV.

81/x

OR's polls have now closed and the all-mail state is dropping results rapidly. I am scanning them and will come back in a few minutes with some calls.

82/x

IT'S OV-AH x 2! Former state House Speaker Tina Kotek will win the Democratic nomination for Governor and Labor and Industries Secretary Val Hoyle will win the Dem nod to succeed Pete DeFazio in OR 4. Both start as solid favorites but in this environment neither are locks.

83/x

PA Senate - McCormicks' lead down to 1,900 votes. He will lose a few hundred when rural Franklin County is all in. Then it's down to Bucks and Delaware.

One thing's for sure: neither millionaire is paying for a landslide.

84/x

McC's lead back up to 2,600 votes but the race's contours haven't changed. If Oz does as well as he currently is in all the counties out except Delaware, he will cut that margin to nearly zero. The the q is how he does in EDay votes there.

85/x

IT'S OV-AH! Lisa Scheller wins a closer than expected 5% win in PA 7 and will face Rep. Susan Wild in a seat Biden barely carried in 2020.

86/x

IT'S OV-AH! Trump-endorsed Bo Hines will break the 30% mark and win the GOP nod in NC 13 without a runoff. This is a hyper marginal seat but Hines should be favored in the pro-GOP environment. Lean R for now.

87/x

IT'S OV-AH! Summer Lee comes back from the EV dead to win the Democratic nod in PA 12 by 862 votes over Steve Irwin. Big win for the DSA and progressives. This should be a safe Dem seat, meaning Lee can expect to join the Squad in January.

88/x

In OR 5, progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner has a big lead over incumbent Kurt Schrader, but that's all from Deschutes County (Bend) which Schrader has not represented before. Waiting for Linn and Clackamas to report.

89/x

OR 5 update - Schrader is only winning Linn and Marion from his old CD by 10-12 points, nowhere near enough to offset McLeod-Skinner's lead. He would need to carry Clackamas (Portland burbs) by 20 to bring it even.

90/x

In the OR 5 GOP race, Lori Chavez-DeRemer is beating rich boy Jimmy Crumpacker by 10 points. Crumpackr carpetbagged into the old OR 2 in 2020 running as the "Trumpbacker" but lost to Rep.. Cliff Bentz. This seat could be won this year if McLeod-Skinner is the Dem choice.

91/x

Wow! McCormick's lead is under 700 votes as the final tallies from Montgomery County give Oz a big push. Oz will take the lead when Franklin County reports. McCormick now needs to do something he hasn't done yet - perform well in EDay votes in metro Philly - to win.

92/x

Still waiting for Franklin, Delaware, and Bucks. A lot is riding on those counties!

93/x

A cryptocurrency billionaire has spent millions of dollars to promote Carrick Flynn in the open OR 6. But the progressive choice, state Rep. Andrea Salinas, is leading by 18% and is winning every county so far. The Dem nominee would be the favorite, but not a lock.

94/x

McCormick's lead is down to 485 votes. The first batch of votes from Delaware weren't bad for him, but he need something similar from Bucks to hold Oz off.

95/x

IT'S OV-AH! Idaho GOP Gov Brad Little has turned back a challenge from his LG, Trump-endorsed, Janice McGeachin. Polls had shown him far ahead and he leads so far by 42%. EDay vote likely will cut into that but it won't come close to reversing it.

96/x

OR 5 update - not many votes in from Clackamas County, but Schrader leads by about 15% in those. If he can increase that a a few points and do the same in Marion (Salem), he's got a chance.

97/x

IT'S OV-AH! Rep. Mike Simpson has turned back another spirited but futile challenge from Bryan Smith.

98/x

Dr. Oz takes his first lead of the night as the final returns from Bucks give him an extra 2,100 votes over McCormick. He should gain another few hundred when Franklin finishes its count. Then McCormick has to hope Delaware's final votes buck the Philly burb trend.

99/x

Oz now leads by 819 votes. With thousands of mail ballots left to count stating tomorrow, this race will not be over this evening.

100/x

The final tally from Delaware County did not help Oz, so he still has a tiny, 700+ vote lead. This race will be decided tomorrow by late arriving mail ballots.

I'm signing off. Thanks for following me, and welcome to my 200 new followers! On to next Tuesday!

101/101