It's Election Day in South Korea! South Koreans are already voting (it's thirteen hours ahead of ET there) for their national legislature. A short thread re: what's at stake.

1/x South Korea has a 300-member unicameral parliament. 46 seats are elected by nationwide PR with a 5% floor to get any seats. 254 are selected in single-member districts, first past the post as in the U.S.

SK has a multi-party system, but with two dominant parties.

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It's Election Day in OH and IL! Both states hold presidential and Senate/House primaries today.

The big focus is on the OH GOP race, which is effectively one between Trump-endorsed Bernie Moreno and establishment conservative Sen. Matt Dolan.

1/x Polls show the race between them too close to call, with some showing Dolan up slightly and others showing Moreno ahead. Here are some things to watch out for tonight.

1) Early Vote - MAGA warriors are likelier to vote on election day, so the EV will be Dolan's mark.

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Happy Super Tuesday!

I'll be here until at least midnight ET bringing you live analysis of the results.

We start at 7pm with VA and VT. These should be among Haley's best shots for an upset, so all eyes are on the VA exit poll! These are presidential-only races.

1/x At 7:30 we'll head to NC, where there are statewide and important Congressional primaries. For the state and CD races, winners avoid a runoff if they get at least 30 percent of the vote.

Six states (AL, MA, ME, OK, TN, TX) close at 8pm, except the El Paso area.

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It's Primary Night in America again! Tonight the Wolverine State, Michigan, votes for president in both parties.

I'll be here giving you the live, no holds barred analysis as soon as the polls close at 8pm.

Here's the overview for both races!

1/x Michigan has no party registration so people can vote in either primary. There's so far no indication, though, that there is much crossover.

Turnout in 2016, the last year both parties held contested primaries, was large: 1.3 million for the GOP, 1.2 million for Dems.

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It's South Carolina GOP primary night!

I'll be live tweeting here, so follow me if you want instant analysis of the exit polls and the returns.

The leaked demographics of CNN's early exit polls are very bad for Haley, consistent with a very large thumping.

1/x If they are accurate - and early exits are always updated with later interviews and these may not fully capture the 215,000 people who voted early - it looks like the race will be called almost instantaneously.

I'll wait until I can get a read from those early votes.

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New Hampshire Primary thread -

I'll be doing my live analysis tonight at so follow me there. Here's some thoughts on what to look for.

1/xwashingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/… 1) Biden percentage: Biden's not on the ballot, but Dean Phillips is waging a decent campaign. Q is how well Biden's write-in campaign does.

Historically since 1952, a president who scores under 68% in the NH primary (Truman, LBJ, Ford, Carter, HW Bush) lose in the general.

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Iowa caucus thread here tonight. It begins!

1/x Entrance polls show Trump at about 50, statistical tie between DeSantis and Haley for second place.

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Dutch exit poll results:

PVV wins - 35 seats Total exit poll results:

PVV 35
GL/PvdA 26
VVD 23
NSC 20

D66 10
BBB 7
CDA 5
SP 5
PvdD 4
CU 3
SGP 3
FvD 3
JA21 1
50+ 1

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Happy Poland Election Day!

Poles head to the polls to elect their bicameral legislature. The lower house, the Sejm, holds much of the power, but the upper house, the Senate, can block legislation and has other powers.

1/x Senators are elected on a first-past-the-post method in 100 geographically compact districts. The opposition won a bare majority in the last election by supporting a single candidate in each. They are doing that again today.

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Happy Antipodean Election Day! It's Saturday morning in Australia and New Zealand, and that means its Election Day in both countries. Here' the pre-analaysis.

1/x Kiwis are electing their unicameral parliament in national elections. NZ has a Mixed-Member system whereby 72 members are elected by first-past-the-post in single-member seats and 48 come via proportional representation from party lists.

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Estonian election thread!

Estonia is a tiny Baltic nation that was once part of the Soviet Union. It has been a democracy since 1990 and is a member of the EU and NATO.

Like many European countries, it has a unicameral parliament (the Riikigoku) elected by PR.

1/x It currently has 5 parliamentary parties. PM Kaja Kallas' Reform Party, the largest, is a pro-EU, pro-NATO, pro-market and socially liberal party. It attracts the educated and urban middle classes.

It governs with 2 other parties, the Social Democrats and Isaama.

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Polls are now closed in Italy! This is my Italian election thread for the evening!

1/x The four-party center-right coalition is expected to win big. It consists of:

Brother of Italy - a national populist party led by Georgia Meloni, with roots in the neo-fascist MSI;
Lega - a populist party led by Matteo Salvini;

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It's Election Day in Italy! The collapse of the cross-party, technocratic government of Mario Draghi in the summer led to today's election. Italy's electoral system (called the Rosatellum) is complex and has shaped the election contours. Here's the debrief.

1/x Ital has a bicameral legislature, with a 400-member Chamber of Deputies and a 200-member Senate. Both chambers employ a variation on mixed-member proportional representation. 147 Chamber deputies and 74 Senators are chosen in single-member districts using FPTP.

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Swedish election thread! Sweden has eight parties in parliament, the Riksdag. Four are aligned with the Social Democratic government and four are in opposition.

The exit polls have the government four narrowly ahead, but within any reasonable margin of error.

1/x The four government parties run the gamut from the former Communists, the Left Party, to the Center Party, a non-socialist party that draw support from farmers and urban professionals. The others are the Social Democrats and the Greens.

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Polls have closed in the Eastern Time zone in Florida! Results will come fast and furious as millions have voted early and FL law allows those votes to be tabulated before the polls close. Watch this space!!

1/x First results of the night - two central FL counties each show Charlie Crist with a hefty lead in the Dem Gov primary over Ag Commissioner Nikki Fried. The bulk of Dem votes come from South FL, though.

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Thoughts on tonight's AK House Special.

The AK Elections Board told me they will release the first returns at 1am ET. That should be at least the 30,000 early votes they declared yesterday.

These will only be first choice votes.

1/x Since mail votes can accepted if postmarked by today for another two weeks, they will not run the ranked choice vote program until after all those votes are received and tallied.

I'm expecting 120,000 or so votes in total.

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Polls close in a few minutes in Wyoming. No big counties in this sparsely populated state. Laramie (Cheyenne) will cast about 15% of the vote, followed by Natrona (Casper). Natrona and neighboring Fremont came closest to matching the statewide totals in the 2018 Gov primary. Teton, home to Jackson Hole and favored by the moneyed set, is the state's only liberal county. Cheney will need to win really big here to have a prayer, and even then it won't cast enough votes to offset Laramie or Natrona.

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Here's tonight's AZ Primary Election Thread! Polls are now closed in the Grand Canyon State.

AZ 1/x Maricopa (metro PHX) will cast about 60% of all the votes in the GOP primaries. It tends to favor the establishment over the insurgents, so if Masters and Lake win here, it's likely game over for them.

AZ 2/x

This tweet has been superseded by some updating. The basic point is still true but the magnitude is much less. 63,000 votes cast in GOP Senate race, 50,500 YES votes.

KS 10/x NO leads by a 63-37 margin with most of the rural counties still to report. That expected YES vote, though, will be offset by the state's largest county, Johnson, which is suburban KC and will vote heavily NO.

83k votes in the GOP Sen primary, 65k YES votes.

KS 11/x

Here's tonight's MO Primary Thread!!

I will follow the GOP and Dem Senate primaries, the Dem race in CD 1, and the GOP contests in CDs 4 & 7.

MO 1/x Show me the results, Missouri! Polls are now closed!

MO 2/x

Here's tonight's KS Primary Thread!

I will only be following the statewide abortion rights initiative, although I may check in on Kris Kobach's attempted comeback.

KS 1/x Polls are now closed in Kansas!

KS 2/x