Bonne Journee electorale francaise! Polls in the big cities close in less than ten minutes, at which time the usually extremely accurate first projections are made. I'll be live posting all day here as the returns come in. Follow!!

1/x Here's my take on what to expect. I have a seat by seat model that I will use to analyze the results as they come in - follow me!



2/xnationalreview.com/2024/07/what-t…

British election thread! Polls have closed and the BBC exit poll says Labour will win 410 seats, Tories 131, Lib Dems 61. Reform get 13, SNP 10, PC 4, and Greens 2.

1/x Reminder - Britain does not report precincts results. We only get the complete results when a constituency is fully counted. The fastest seats will report within an hour, but most seats won't start reporting until around 7:30-9 pm ET.

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Happy UK Election Day! Here's the primer on what to look for today.

Britain elects its 650 members of the House of Commons by first-past-the-post in single-member districts just like the U.S. House. That fact will help Labour tonight a lot.

1/x Polls show Labour will win between 400 and 475 seats as the Tories collapse to between 20 and 25%. The Tories won 43% in 2019, meaning they'll only hold about half of their voters.

Many have switched to Labour, but more have switched to Nigel Farage's Reform Party.

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THEY'RE OV-AH! I'm late to the primary party tonight but it looks like I haven't missed too much. The AP has correctly called SC-3 GOP for Sheri Biggs, NY-16 Dem for George Latimer, and CO-4 GOP for Lauren Boebert. Jeff Hurd will win CO-3 R and Jeff Crank will CO-5 R.

1/x AP has also called NY-1 D for John Avlon and CO-8 R for Gabe Evans. State Sen. John Mannion will win NY-22 D as well. Rep. Claudia Tenney will almost certainly win NY-24 R.

That leaves the races in UT, where the polls close in 1 minute!!

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Thursday South African election thread -

Good morning! Results are now slowly arriving. About 21% of precincts, but between 10 and 15% of expected voters, have reported. Here's what we know so far:

1/x * The ANC should lose its overall majority in parliament for the first time since the establishment of full democracy in 1994;
* The MK Party, led by former SA president and ANC leader Jacob Zuma, should be the largest party in KwaZuluNatal, the second largest province.

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This is tonight's primary analysis thread!

Polls close in WV at 7:30pm ET. The GOP Senate race between Gov. Jim Justice and Rep. Alex Mooney should be a Justice wipeout - expect a quick call.

Races for the GOP Gov. nomination and WV 2 to succeed Mooney are also up.

1/x WV is a very rural state and no county cast more than 10% of the total vote in the 2020 GOP primary. Only 4 counties cast even 10,000 votes out of the 210,556 total cast. Kanawha (Charleston) is the big dog with 18,500, followed by Berkeley (Panhandle) with 12,000.

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It's Election Day in South Korea! South Koreans are already voting (it's thirteen hours ahead of ET there) for their national legislature. A short thread re: what's at stake.

1/x South Korea has a 300-member unicameral parliament. 46 seats are elected by nationwide PR with a 5% floor to get any seats. 254 are selected in single-member districts, first past the post as in the U.S.

SK has a multi-party system, but with two dominant parties.

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It's Election Day in OH and IL! Both states hold presidential and Senate/House primaries today.

The big focus is on the OH GOP race, which is effectively one between Trump-endorsed Bernie Moreno and establishment conservative Sen. Matt Dolan.

1/x Polls show the race between them too close to call, with some showing Dolan up slightly and others showing Moreno ahead. Here are some things to watch out for tonight.

1) Early Vote - MAGA warriors are likelier to vote on election day, so the EV will be Dolan's mark.

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Happy Super Tuesday!

I'll be here until at least midnight ET bringing you live analysis of the results.

We start at 7pm with VA and VT. These should be among Haley's best shots for an upset, so all eyes are on the VA exit poll! These are presidential-only races.

1/x At 7:30 we'll head to NC, where there are statewide and important Congressional primaries. For the state and CD races, winners avoid a runoff if they get at least 30 percent of the vote.

Six states (AL, MA, ME, OK, TN, TX) close at 8pm, except the El Paso area.

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It's Primary Night in America again! Tonight the Wolverine State, Michigan, votes for president in both parties.

I'll be here giving you the live, no holds barred analysis as soon as the polls close at 8pm.

Here's the overview for both races!

1/x Michigan has no party registration so people can vote in either primary. There's so far no indication, though, that there is much crossover.

Turnout in 2016, the last year both parties held contested primaries, was large: 1.3 million for the GOP, 1.2 million for Dems.

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It's South Carolina GOP primary night!

I'll be live tweeting here, so follow me if you want instant analysis of the exit polls and the returns.

The leaked demographics of CNN's early exit polls are very bad for Haley, consistent with a very large thumping.

1/x If they are accurate - and early exits are always updated with later interviews and these may not fully capture the 215,000 people who voted early - it looks like the race will be called almost instantaneously.

I'll wait until I can get a read from those early votes.

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New Hampshire Primary thread -

I'll be doing my live analysis tonight at so follow me there. Here's some thoughts on what to look for.

1/xwashingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/… 1) Biden percentage: Biden's not on the ballot, but Dean Phillips is waging a decent campaign. Q is how well Biden's write-in campaign does.

Historically since 1952, a president who scores under 68% in the NH primary (Truman, LBJ, Ford, Carter, HW Bush) lose in the general.

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Iowa caucus thread here tonight. It begins!

1/x Entrance polls show Trump at about 50, statistical tie between DeSantis and Haley for second place.

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Dutch exit poll results:

PVV wins - 35 seats Total exit poll results:

PVV 35
GL/PvdA 26
VVD 23
NSC 20

D66 10
BBB 7
CDA 5
SP 5
PvdD 4
CU 3
SGP 3
FvD 3
JA21 1
50+ 1

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Happy Poland Election Day!

Poles head to the polls to elect their bicameral legislature. The lower house, the Sejm, holds much of the power, but the upper house, the Senate, can block legislation and has other powers.

1/x Senators are elected on a first-past-the-post method in 100 geographically compact districts. The opposition won a bare majority in the last election by supporting a single candidate in each. They are doing that again today.

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Happy Antipodean Election Day! It's Saturday morning in Australia and New Zealand, and that means its Election Day in both countries. Here' the pre-analaysis.

1/x Kiwis are electing their unicameral parliament in national elections. NZ has a Mixed-Member system whereby 72 members are elected by first-past-the-post in single-member seats and 48 come via proportional representation from party lists.

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Estonian election thread!

Estonia is a tiny Baltic nation that was once part of the Soviet Union. It has been a democracy since 1990 and is a member of the EU and NATO.

Like many European countries, it has a unicameral parliament (the Riikigoku) elected by PR.

1/x It currently has 5 parliamentary parties. PM Kaja Kallas' Reform Party, the largest, is a pro-EU, pro-NATO, pro-market and socially liberal party. It attracts the educated and urban middle classes.

It governs with 2 other parties, the Social Democrats and Isaama.

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Polls are now closed in Italy! This is my Italian election thread for the evening!

1/x The four-party center-right coalition is expected to win big. It consists of:

Brother of Italy - a national populist party led by Georgia Meloni, with roots in the neo-fascist MSI;
Lega - a populist party led by Matteo Salvini;

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It's Election Day in Italy! The collapse of the cross-party, technocratic government of Mario Draghi in the summer led to today's election. Italy's electoral system (called the Rosatellum) is complex and has shaped the election contours. Here's the debrief.

1/x Ital has a bicameral legislature, with a 400-member Chamber of Deputies and a 200-member Senate. Both chambers employ a variation on mixed-member proportional representation. 147 Chamber deputies and 74 Senators are chosen in single-member districts using FPTP.

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Swedish election thread! Sweden has eight parties in parliament, the Riksdag. Four are aligned with the Social Democratic government and four are in opposition.

The exit polls have the government four narrowly ahead, but within any reasonable margin of error.

1/x The four government parties run the gamut from the former Communists, the Left Party, to the Center Party, a non-socialist party that draw support from farmers and urban professionals. The others are the Social Democrats and the Greens.

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Polls have closed in the Eastern Time zone in Florida! Results will come fast and furious as millions have voted early and FL law allows those votes to be tabulated before the polls close. Watch this space!!

1/x First results of the night - two central FL counties each show Charlie Crist with a hefty lead in the Dem Gov primary over Ag Commissioner Nikki Fried. The bulk of Dem votes come from South FL, though.

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