Thread by @gauravsabnis

The #PASenate primary was a good one for Democrats. Fetterman has a unified party and electorate behind him, plus statewide appeal. Trump's random Oz hug showed the limits of Trumpism. Even with Trump's endorsement he got less than a third of the vote.

Also Trump's favorite Madison Cawthorn not just lost the race, but also conceded!! Who knew MAGA folks could actually concede elections? 🤭🤭

Remember I'd said a couple of months ago how primaries are going to show the limits to Trumpmania, even if media inflates it constantly.

If you look past the media narratives & compulsive right wing gazing of the beltway folks, it's been evident since 2020 the America is just not that into Trump anymore. Nor is the GOP electorate, beyond a point. Not that he ever won 50% of the vote in either.

Trumpism is here to stay. But Trump is done. Last night's in primary results show it. And will keep showing as more primaries happen. Trump is NOT some de facto boss of the party. He's an old tenant refusing to move out. Democrats can and will benefit from it in November.

The country is not totally sold on Biden. But the thing is, the country is rarely totally sold on any President. It's kind of a feature of the country, not a bug. The cult of personality has a thankfully low shelf life in American politics. Trump never got close to 50%.

Trump is way more popular than he should be. But he is way less popular than he and the media portray him to be. And the second point is the one he keeps trying to hide, because he's first and last a scammer who hates close scrutiny.

Kelly Tshibaka, who says mailing abortion pills should be a federal crime, is another random bet Trump has made out of his hate for Murkowski.

And Murkowski has stared him down for years. She's already won before even after losing a primary! And this is a top 4 primary + RCV.

Have you heard of Biden taking sides in any primary? No President, sitting or former, other than Trump takes sides in party primaries. They consider it beneath the office.

Trump considers the office and the party and the country beneath himself.

That Trump is taking sides, not in one or two, but dozens of races. And even within the party that he's supposedly the de facto boss of according to the beltway media, his endorsed candidates at best get 30-40%. In his own party.

That's kinda hilarious.

When you look at the cold hard facts, Trump's 2016 win, though unexpected and horrifying, was still a very lucky fluke. A lot of factors had to align for him to go all the way. Factors unlikely to be repeated.

But read the beltway media and you'll feel like he's Reagan level.

Even as a sitting President, Trump had a weak record as an endorsement. As a loser president, it's even weaker. And bound to get weaker.

Something Kemp, DeSantis, Abbott etc realized in 2020 itself. They never really liked Trump anyway. They want to replace him.

I'm saying a Trump endorsement never was what it was projected to be. Because it's never an actual endorsement of the candidate. It's more about the candidate's endorsement of Trump. Even going back to 2017, it's never been very effective. Smoke & mirrors

https://twitter.com/ymarathe/status/1526896546842804224?t=h9gUXhwsIBXROsZLPD4OIg&s=19

The US system, by design (cos they were paranoid about a British king or their progeny running in elections and bringing back the crown) makes Personality Cults like Trump's difficult to sustain beyond a couple of cycles. Or even Obama's, who won with way bigger margins.

There definitely is a Trump Cult as we saw on Jan 6. But Trump isn't central to it the way media portrays. It's anti minority sentiment, anti immigrant sentiment, and protectionism at its core. And it's not as big as shown. Trump just happened to come along at the right time.

I predict that by the end of 2022, Trump will be a spent force. The money and power will cut him loose. And find the next guy.

Romney is apparently planning to run. He's the best bet for GOP money in 2024 to get behind.

This just isn't a DeSantis type country nationally.

Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 out of the last 8 elections. Trump never won the popular vote. Even in the 2016 GOP primary, he got well less than 50% of the vote. His win was legit but more an anomaly than a trend. As 2018 midterms & 2020 elections showed. He lost both.

The only institution Republicans really have a handle on is the Supreme Court, and that too by the fluke of Trump getting 3 picks! One stolen from Obama.

Everywhere else, they've generally lost more than won since 2016.

But Dems are portrayed as being in disarray.

When almost every single Democratic primary is old school respectful. Even in these Trumpy times, you don't see Democratic races get anywhere close to ugly the way any GOP race with a Trump endorsement becomes.

Biden isn't ultra popular because a President isn't designed to be.

Nixon won 49 states as did Reagan. Clinton was popular enough to shrug off the impeachment and ended with high approval. Obama achieved the rare trifecta of not just winning all 3 branches, but almost a filibuster proof majority!

None of them had influence beyond a decade.

The idea that the orange turd who lost the popular vote by millions TWICE, couldn't even get 10% in his own home county, has no real Ideology or convictions, is the one whose personality cult is an unstoppable force?

Please!

Only the media & Trump profit from that view.

The only real skill he has is manipulating the media by being content that will get eyeballs. Which works out for the media too, because they like money.

Politically, Trump is and has always been a liability. He's a champion only of Confederate slavers. And they lost in 1865.