Thread by @EthicalSkeptic

Because of BA.2.12.1, the case fatality rate (CFR) in the US has whipsawed back to below the 2009 H1N1 flu index reference again.

So far no rise in deaths associated with this new BA.2.12.1 case peak.

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But notice two things about the trend line in CFR (yellow dotted line). For the US it is fairly linear. This is our historical immunity build as a Zone III Covid-naive nation.

Only one factor (natural immunity) has served to create this downtrend, not two factors.

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Now let's apply this linearity in immunity-build to a World case/fatality chart using the same axes, measures, & metrics.

We observe there are TWO linear trends in the world data, not just one (as in the US).

This suggests deductively - TWO SEPARATE VIRUSES

W-A-D & BA.X

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Notice there is a trend commensurate for Wuhan-Alpha-Delta which began with the summer of 2019 respiratory distress riots in Wuhan.

As well there is a distinct and parallel trend for the BA.X series of very diverse background virus strains (formerly misnamed 'Omicron').

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If we extrapolate both immunity build trends back into time, we get inception dates of (relative to W-A-D)

May 2019 for Wuhan-Alpha-Delta (Wuhan summer respiratory riots)

July 2017 for BA.X series of weaker background strains formerly misidentified as 'Omicron'.

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And recall, when did TES's genomic-site-entropy comparative analysis between Wuhan-Alpha-Delta and BA.1 and BA.2 indicate was the start of the background strain series, BA.X?

Yes, July 2017

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And recall, when did TES's transitional prior immunity map indicate the virus began which conferred immunity upon Zone I and II nations, before the US and 35 Zone III nations were hit hard with W-A-D in 2020?

Yes, 2017 in China.

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