Thread by @nataliabugayova

1/10 Russia’s foothold in the southeast would constitute a permanent threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty and even survival. Control over Ukraine remains Putin’s goal, and that goal is not going to change. My latest in the @ForeignPolicy foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/19/rus…

2/10 Russian control of the southeast would subject the people there to perpetual Russian atrocities. Ukrainians trapped behind enemy lines will have limited ability to defend themselves and will be subject to Russian atrocities as observed in Bucha and throughout Ukraine.

3/10 A Russian military foothold in the southeast would threaten Moldova, the Black Sea region, and NATO. It would make any scenario to end this war costlier in lives and resources.

4/10 The Kremlin will likely try to link its territorial gains across Ukraine and potentially beyond by annexing or otherwise integrating other territories that Russia illegally occupies.

5/10 The window to expel Russia is now. The Kremlin is trying to absorb and likely annex Ukraine’s southeast, but Russia has not yet solidified its control over the occupied areas.

6/10 Russia is approaching the limits of the combat-capable manpower it can make available for the war in the short term. Mobilization, if Putin pursues it at all, would take months to put new, usable combat troops into Ukraine.

7/10 The longer Russia is allowed to stay, the costlier it becomes to drive it out. Time also gives Putin an opportunity to adapt the Russian people to the idea of a long war and put the Russian economy on a wartime footing.

8/10 The West’s attention is focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine, but this Western attention is not a constant nor a given. Putin has achieved some of his advances over the past 20 years simply by outlasting the West in the information space.

9/10 While Russian forces have begun to entrench defensively in the southeast, they are still trying to advance. The West must help the Ukrainians get a broader counteroffensive underway before Russia transitions to a coherent defense, which it has not yet done.

10/10 The less successful the Russian offensive is in the east, the more critical the Kremlin’s need to secure the areas it has already seized will become.