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May 21 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
R’s did a nice job of settling quickly on candidates in the winnable Hudson Valley seats: Mike Lawler in 17, Colin Schmitt in 18, and Marc Molinaro in 19.

Watch now for whether higher-profile R’s jump into open 1 and 3 on Long Island. R’s also need a recruit in Katko’s open 22.
Claudia Tenney also did the GOP a big favor by running in #NY24, which she barely represents. This avoids a needless incumbent faceoff with Jacobs in 23 or a primary with Molinaro in 19. The (likely R) winner of the old #NY23 special will likely be without a chair this fall.
More than anything, she did the GOP a huge favor by not running in a marginal district she’d likely lose in 2024. Notably, she is one of the House Republican Conference’s worst electoral performers.

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More from @RRHElections

RRH Elections Profile picture
May 21
Quick hits on the new NY Congressional map: this will realistically swing between 16D-10R and 20D-6R, with each party having a couple other longer-shot targets. The key changes from Monday are a safer Malliotakis seat and splitting Suffolk by North/South Shore instead of E/W.
After being tantalized with the possibility of a compact South Brooklyn seat, the court's final map is somehow even worse for the Orthodox Jewish community than the first draft. Boro Park is split precisely down the middle, eliminating its influence.
With the huge exception of South Brooklyn, everything else south of I-84 is about as clean and no-nonsense as you could ask for. But the Upstate lines are still a mess, as Cervas's attempt to draw a "competitive" #NY19 creates a seat that runs from Watertown to Niagara.
Read 4 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
May 19
Here is the DRA link to the proposed changes the Harkenrider Petitioners have submitted to NY Congressional map proposed by Special Master Jonathan Cervas. The proposed changes would have 1 fewer split county be more compact on almost all measures👇
davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::…
The most important proposed changes in the Petitioners map is it undoes the possibly illegal cracking of the Orthodox Jewish community in south Brooklyn & converts the #NY10 "Bill deBlasio Opportunity" district into an Orthodox Jewish opportunity district.
The Harkenrider Petitioners also cleans up the NY Special Master split of Buffalo and draws a much cleaner and more compact #NY24.
Read 5 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
May 18
#PASen is extremely unlikely to resolve tonight. Let's do a thread on the races you may have missed in the meantime!
#NC1: Sandy Smith (R) vs. Don Davis (D); D's get preferred matchup in D+3, R-trending seat.
#NC4: Valerie Foushee (D) wins Safe D open seat
#NC13: 26-year-old Bo Hines (R) and Wiley Nickel (D) advance in R+1 seat
#PA6: Guy Ciarrocchi (R) gives GOP best shot in D+5, ancestral R seat
#PA7: Lisa Scheller (R) barely leads in R+2 seat
#PA12: Summer Lee (D) barely leads in open D+8 seat
#KY03: Morgan McGarvey (D) wins open Safe D seat
#IDGov: Brad Little (R) romps over Trump-endorsed primary foe
#ID02: Simpson (R) easily survives challenge
#ORGov: Tina Kotek (D) and Christine Drazen (R) advance; R's get preferred matchup in 3-way general with Betsy Johnson (I)
Read 4 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
May 11
Breaking: Florida judge strikes down congressional map as to #FL4/#FL5 only. He is setting the case for immediate appeal, possibly directly to the FL Supreme Court and bypassing intermediate court.
This ruling isn’t unexpected: the Florida SC ruled that the old #FL5 was mandated by the Fair Districts act, which was the only claim the plaintiffs made here. A trial court can’t overrule the Supreme Court.
As in New York, we’re getting a quick appeal in Florida. There are 3 options now:
1. FL SC can affirm that the old #FL5 is required
2. FL SC can overrule itself and deem the old #FL5 an illegal gerrymander
3. FL SC can punt to ‘24 and use the DeSantis map for ‘22
Read 5 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
May 3
Neither #NYGov Kathy Hochul (D-Buffalo) nor her potential Lt Governor running mate Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck) are from New York City. The last time New York elected a Governor and Lt Governor entirely from Upstate New York was 1910.
*This assumes that Thomas Dewey is more associated with Manhattan, where he was District Attorney, than Pawling, NY, where he lived later in life.

The elected 1911-12 Gov/LG combo was Gov John Alden Dix of Glens Falls and LG Thomas Conway of Plattsburgh.
The last time NY had an Upstate Gov & LG was in the month of December 1942, when Gov Charles Poletti from Elizabethtown ascended to the office when then-Gov Herbert Lehman took a post in the wartime federal government. His acting LG, Joe Hanley, was from Perry, NY.
Read 4 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
May 1
Lots to unpack here: Joe Manchin (D) cuts an ad for David McKinley (R), defending McKinley against allegations that he supported the BBB bill that Manchin killed. McKinley/Manchin supported the smaller infrastructure bill, which Alex Mooney (R) opposed. thehill.com/news/campaign/…
McKinley and Mooney are facing off in a member-v-member primary in #WV2. WV is perhaps the only state where an R would ever tout support from a Dem--even a popular one like Manchin--in a semi-closed primary.
And separate from #WV2, we can't imagine many Dems are thrilled to see Manchin taking a victory lap in a GOP ad, boasting about killing Biden's signature legislation as their window to pass anything resembling progressive legislation continues to slam shut!
Read 4 tweets

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