We being the MMWR Week 19 2022 update with Non-Natural Cause Deaths.

Pharma trolls and Covid panic aficionados this is the tally of young people you murdered (so far 86,800). This is different from an unstoppable virus doing its work. Sleep well.

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77 weeks now of elevated R00-R99 death categorization flux. Disappointingly, this last week, we equaled the old peak, so this is not going down as I had hoped.

As we saw yesterday, this curve moves commensurately with both excess death and excess cancer death.

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Will we see a repeat of last years off-season flu resurgence (the '???'). I suspect we will.

As one can see, there is no longer an 'Omicron' - that lie is busted. There is a background diverse array of proto-Covid descendants bearing the BA.X series moniker.

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Now for our three ICD-10 watch-list death categories.

We begin with excess Cerebrovascular deaths.

A 4.4 sigma event compared to a 2-sigma Covid context. This bears further watching - because it should not be occurring as much now.

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Second, is Nephritis and nephrotic syndrome deaths. A 3.8 sigma even - and also bears watching.

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The 3rd canary in the coal mine (aside from cerebrovascular & nephritis deaths), Malignant Neoplasms.

As we mentioned yesterday, we used an older more conservative lag curve just to make sure we don't over-blow this increase.

Still at 8.7 sigma - last week was at 8.8.

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As we observed yesterday, these excess Cancer deaths vary tightly with Non-Covid Natural Cause Excess Deaths, by US state.

But they constitute only 11% of that excess in terms of magnitude. In other words, something else besides missed cancer screenings is causing this.

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In all, the impetus behind this Non-Covid Natural Cause Excess Death (remember murders, accidents, overdoses are removed) - has produced 280,100 anomalous deaths since 2021 MMWR Wk 14.

This is roughly equivalent to last week because of the more aggressive lag curve.

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In All Cause Excess Mortality summary, Lack of Treatment deaths and Cerebro/Cancer/Kidney/Heart deaths both continue their hot pace.

This is making troll and panic pusher alike (those who even bother to look) sweat bullets. You shall know them by their fruits.

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In terms of Full Covid Accountability.

Panic Tally = 829,480 deaths from lack of treatment, disruption, and some other unknown factor (the three lighter colored spheres below). ...and growing.

American Civil War = 618,200 deaths.

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Regarding those who say "Why isn't this happening in European countries" (a rhetorical statement, not really a question)

1. Have them run the models correctly, not just for All Cause Excess Mortality, and

2. Even running All Cause Excess Mortality - Europe is WORSE...

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More from @EthicalSkeptic

Sep 29
We begin the MMWR Wk 37 Update with the Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality chart. It continues to bear robustness versus the baseline.

(No, this is not caused by the PFE - PFE is only ~ 15% of this excess, & declining)

A jump of 6,000 deaths since last week. A 5+ sigma event. Image
Abnormal Clinical and Lab Findings hold-records took an alarming 5% jump in a single week. The persistence of this bucket of deaths, along with the refusal to release these 29 K records to their final disposition - is highly concerning. Image
Influenza and Pneumonia took their first uptick in a very long time, these last two weeks. Too small a blip to signal anything just yet. We just keep a watch. Image
Read 7 tweets
Sep 22
Latest 'A Tale of Two Viruses' chart show a 'whipsaw' (lower significance) uptick in CFR - the downward trend is still intact. We are currently remain at about half the CFR of H1N1, right in the range for the CFR of a cold virus (HCoV).
A slight rise in cases in Europe as of last week. However, no real impact to CFR for Europe so far.

Now, please note that the BA.X yellow dotted line for Europe is LOWER than that same line for the US... yet the trend slope is EXACTLY the same. 🤔

What do we infer from this?
The BA.X line being lower for Europe, means they've been exposed to this virus LONGER than US...

This means that we've been exposed to BA.X LONGER than W-A-D.

The decline in CFR therefore is NOT a function of the virus getting weaker - but rather a function of time & exposure.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 21
This latest MMWR Week 36 update shows that cancer deaths arrive on their own lag curve, separate from all other ICD-10 codes (which all work well on a single lag curve).

Cancer deaths are being manually curated (always downward) during weeks -2 thru -10.
Meanwhile, using the real lag curve on Excess All Cause Mortality has worked accurately.

The good news is that both All Cause & Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality dropped for week 36. Pull Forward Effect based on this differential is running ~7% as of MMWR Week 36.
Now, if we use the curated lag curve (which has taken shape only across the last 6 weeks - so no, trolls did not know this all along) - we still get a Cancer sigma of 6 for cancer mortality.

I don't believe the CDC's cancer stats now, but this is all we get - curated numbers.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 14
MMWR Wk 35 Update from today's CDC drop.

First, the contention that lag adjust is no longer needed is misinfo. Ignore the idiots.

Below is our lag curve performance for this week - it is suitably conservative, AND as figures come out of lag, they are actually showing higher.
Now that we have addressed lag disinfo, let's jump right to Cancers. I capped this at 8-sigma & DID NOT EVEN USE the lag calcs here anyway.

The actuals, out of the lag window, are rising FAST - confirm my lag calcs as sound/conservative.

PFE is only a very small part of this.
Now remember, none of the Cancer metrics you just saw include

- records still missing
- records which were reassigned
- records still stuck in the R99 bucket (below)

This unattended record total jumped to 29,400 this week, as this curve was not worked at all.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 13
Ever wonder how the CDC produces their rosy \/-effectiveness calcs? They conduct small linear inductive study, & then extrapolate that small test to population at large.

But fail in what is called the reverse problem - back-applying those results to see if they are plausible.
The results they have on their Vaccine Effectiveness & Breakthrough Surveillance analysis manufactured 3,600 deaths in a week - and assigned them all to the 'Un-\/' cohort.

No wonder that cohort looks so bad. Their science failed the reverse-problem.

The Sun Also Rises
In this 3,600 I am comparing CDC 'Over 50' deaths to OWID deaths for all ages, so this 3600 number is low. But the principle is struck nonetheless.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 11
I have a message for the perdocent professor. Get off your arse and do your own work. Stop trying to make your shortfall in effort and integrity, everyone else's fault.
The perdocent exploits not having been taught, supplied, or shown how to do something, as a means of not understanding, of taking control, or to avoid doing any actual work.
No matter their appeal to credential, never let a perdocent take control. Always seek to maintain familiarity with the perdocent’s tactics of ego, laziness, and cleverly concealed dishonesty.
Read 4 tweets

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