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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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May 22 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
Battle of Donbas (actually overall war) update. Though there is an intense battle raging in the easternmost tip of the Donbas, on the whole combat intensity seems to be reducing as the sides are attempting to work out where the line will be for the ranged, attritional fight.
There is clearly an intense battle raging between Popasna and Severodonetsk as the Russians make a major effort to snip off this Ukrainian salient, shorten their lines and seize 1 of the last Ukrainian cities in the region. Ystrdays @TheStudyofWar report. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Here is their map of the area of operations as the Russians try to cut off Severodonetsk.
And the Russians really are making a major effort. They have blown up one of the few bridges into Severodonetsk from the west as they try to isolate the city.
Ukrainians clearly admitting the difficulty of the fight too, as President Zelensky's speech last night made explicit.
Otoh, this focus is a sign of a drastic reduction in Russian goals and seems to be going along with a significant reduction in combat intensity in Ukraine as a whole. Here is a map where the area of fighting (black circle) so you can see what a small part of the front it is.
And using Ukrainian claims of Russian losses as an indicator of combat intensity. Russian offensive action (which would result in Tank and APC losses) is on a clear downward trajectory.
Other than the last peak of May 11-13 (which coincided with the disastrous Russian attempt to cross the S. Donets River, loss claims have been trending downwards for a while now.
So the fighting seems very intense in a small part of the line, but overall there is a lessening of combat. And this seems to confirm that we will be moving to a range-weapon for a duel once the line in the Donbas roughly stabilizes after the Severodonetsk battle resolves.
There might be Rus and Ukr attempts to improve their positions in certain parts of the line. However, if Ukrainian behavior remains consistent, there will be no immediate counteroffensive, unless they find a very weak part of the Russian line and can threaten Russian logistics.
Instead, the Ukrainians seem determined to get as much ranged weaponry as possible for a significant attempt to degrade Russian forces before attempting anything risky (which makes sense). Ukrainians seem to have understood just how dangerous forward movements are these days.
2 examples yesterday of Ukr calls for more ranged weapons. Pres Zelensky made an explicit call for more MLRS.
And there was this tweet by @IAPonomarenko yesterday which I highlighted.
So in a sense we are heading towards the end of the Battle of Donbas. There will be a nasty fight around Severodonetsk before we know how it ends. Overall, however the war is transitioning to a larger, ranged battle along the line. That could go on for a while.
In that line battle the Russian advantage will be the number of artillery systems. Ukrainian advantages will be better artillery systems with more range (more M777s on the way). Plus, action behind Russian lines.
There are growing reports of Ukr actions behind Russian lines, both SF operations and signs of an insurgency.
This could be a major problem for the Russian army once most movement stops and a range-battle starts. They will have less flexibility of movement and make easier targets. Its one of the reasons a static battle over the summer favors Ukraine clearly--imho
Ukrainian Armed Forces update, which has their description of the battles around Popasna and Severodonetsk. Lots of fighting up and down the line, they claim that they are holding for now. mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/0…
An strong attempt to map the situation near Popasna. Has the Russians mostly moving into the fields to the north and west of the town, but not taking the surrounding villages. The whole thread by @Nrg8000 also shows how quiet the rest of the front has been

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 23
Morning question for those who might be wondering why the Russians can’t exploit openings when they seem to make them (such as Popasna). Name me a successful, sustained armored breakthrough that didn’t have air power controlling the space in front of the advance?
Appreciate all the answers--and the excellent creativity. Harold Godwinson at Stamford Bridge wins that. What is interesting is that the most common response--Battle of the Bulge, was an example of a failure. The side that gained air supremacy actually won.
The one interesting response was Operation Uranus, the Soviet encirclement of the German 6th Army at Stalingrad. Though Im pretty sure that the Red Army had considerably more working aircraft supporting the assault than the Germans had. Plus they were attacking poor troops.
Read 10 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 20
A brief, somewhat nerdy thread written because of an belief on US public opinion and war expressed in this @nytimes editorial--which is widely shared but actually has little evidence to support it. That is that US public opinion loses interest in wars. nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opi…
The idea that US public opinion on war is fickle and has a short attention span is widespread. The editorial is a argues that Ukraine needs to make concessions because US public opinion could do just that.
The real problem with this assumption is that there is almost no evidence for it beyond people thinking its true. There has actually been a huge amount of academic work on US opinion and wars, which shows a few things that puncture this lazy assumption.
Read 16 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 20
A thread on breakthroughs as some are sending me reports of Russian advances near Popasna and saying this doesnt square with what the Pentagon is saying about incremental, slow Russian advances. Not sure the difference is that big. Yesterdays briefing. defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
Pentagon official yesterday continued to talk about the situation in the Donbas by putting stress on the slow nature of change in the Donbas 'not alot of change'
Then almost immediately after that briefing stories came in about a possible Russian 'breakthrough' near Popasna (where they have been massing forces).
Read 16 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 19
Getting more and more on this--think this kind of analysis does not entirely understand how this war is evolving and what matters. First of all, the idea of a town falling and this leading to a large Ukrainian force being surrounded assumes the Russians can break out.
This is our World War II mindset of setting the stage for a fast armored break-out encirclement. In the Donbas, that is not happening (and like the Pentagon makes clear) doesnt look likely. Russian attacks are being done by progressively smaller and weaker units.
And say, for instance, the Russians after suffering alot more are able to surround Severodonetsk (which seems to have reached a stage of weird importance in people's mind). What do they do? Will the Russians go into the town and do street to street fighting?
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 19
Yesterday's Pentagon briefing reconfirms that Russian offensive action in the Donbas is scaling back, and we do seem to be heading to a period of stasis for a while (which will allow the Ukrainians to integrate their new arms--which is what they need). defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
Briefing started with this description--lots to unpack. Russians moving very slowly, attacking with smaller units (below BTG), taking a village here and there, but little important advances.
Small aside--I do think we always need to remember what actually matters here. Taking a town or small city is pretty unimportant. What matters is what each side is doing to degrade the other, not whether a specific town falls.
Read 11 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 18
A video showing why loitering munitions could be so important in attritional warfare, in this case it’s a Russian loitering munition not hitting its target. If you see below, there is a video of a Russian LM attacking one of the recently arrived US howitzers in Ukraine.
Thankfully it missed (a relatively regular event when it comes to the operating of Russian precision munitions. They seems to have regular flaws in construction that lessen their effectiveness).
However, had it hit, this would be a significant loss as the US has only sent in 90. Regular successful usage of these would be a real boon to Russia.
Read 6 tweets

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