Thread by @sfrantzman

Thread: Iranian media reporting on the targeting of the Turkish Bashiqa base in northern Iraq. It says drones were used in the attack and names a new group "Ahrar Sinjar" as claiming responsibility. This group (احرار سنجار) seems to be a stand-in for some other group

What do we know about this: Pro-Iran groups have used drones increasingly in Iraq over the last year, often targeting US forces and Erbil in the KRG. This means the kamikaze drone, which is mentioned in this article, is the new weapon of choice for Iran and its proxies.

But what about this new group name, a reference to Sinjar and posts online even show a logo which appears to link it to the Yazidi region? tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1401/0…

The Turkish base at Bashiqa-Zilkan has been targeted numerous times in the past year by rockets, these have the hallmarks of PMU/Hashd attacks using the 107mm or 122mm,

https://twitter.com/AlexAlmeida2020/status/1526952199644925955

The attacks on Bashiqa are part of larger campaign by pro-Iran groups to target other areas in northern Iraq's Kurdistan region; jpost.com/middle-east/ar…

I've covered this for a while; jpost.com/middle-east/ar…

The recent attack claims to be linked to recent Turkish operations in which Ankara claims to target "terrorists"

https://twitter.com/Kazh1991/status/1528265466405343232

Notice the first reports claimed this was rockets; it was actually drone(s), a civilian was apparently killed though at the base, not soldiers;

https://twitter.com/RudawEnglish/status/1528098400259956737

The peacock logo presented in some tweets about the new group appears to link it to the Yazidis and Sinjar;

https://twitter.com/Axpin72/status/1528103630796115968

In recent weeks the Iraqi army clashed with Yazidis, particularly the YBS, in Sinjar; thousands fled; thenationalnews.com/mena/iraq/2022…

Reports said that the clashes may be fueled by Ankara's pressure on Iraq; al-monitor.com/originals/2022…

Something doesn't add up then, because if you look at this, the past attacks on Bashiqa base were likely by the PMU. Why would the PMU create a new Ahrar Sinjar group, trying to make this about Yazidis, while also trying to link to to the Turkish bases in KRG and tensions?

If these are kamikaze UAVs of the kind Iran has supplied the PMU technology to use, as it has with Houthis and Hamas, the idea that this technology was transferred to a new group seems unlikely. More likely it is a fake new group rooted in the PMU?

The groups linked to Iran using these drones are brazen; bbc.com/news/world-mid…

But then what accounts for the Iraqi army clashes with Yazidis? Since the PMU is also strong in Sinjar, why clash one week and then turn attention to Bashiqa the next? What's really going on?

On the other hand the images shared show one drone that is quite simple...not the "six" mentioned in the Iranian article

https://twitter.com/Axpin72/status/1528106674141134848?s=20&t=zEI3OZ1CMOHO845lXehLGw

One has to conclude Iran media highlighting this has an agenda. It is almost taking credit for it via the Iraqi Hashd and this new "group." On the other hand Rudaw and others highlight the Ankara conflict with "terrorists"; so which group is responsible?rudaw.net/english/middle…

Ankara's media would prefer to believe that all these groups are working together. But are they? Are parts of them? dailysabah.com/politics/news-…

Now compare the tweet above showing a styrofoam drone with the kind of drones that Iran tech has exported to the PMU via the IRGC; compare to the Sahab (Sammad) kamikaze UAV. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

The PMU allegedly used kamikaze style drones in 2021: "fixed-wing drone systems used to attack U.S. bases on April 14 (Erbil), May 8 (al-Asad), May 11 (Kurdistan), and June 6 (al-Asad again)" via the report above.

In the end there are a lot of questions raised, my assessment based on the book about #DroneWars, is that we need to know more about the type of drone and sophistication of the attack. The creation of a "new group" only mirrors what we know these groups in Iraq have done before