Some thoughts on the climate-energy pathway in Australia following the 2022 Federal Election #AusVotes22 1/7
Support for nuclear in Australia is lukewarm. I believe this is not because the anti-nuclear claims still have a lot of traction, but rather due to the strong (perhaps overwhelming) sentiment that nuclear is simply not needed here, because renewables are ready to do the job. 2/7
Labor, Greens and Teals all ardently believe this, and have the numbers to implement their vision. This election has clearly shown a major momentum shift towards action on climate change, which is a really great thing, and deep emissions-cut targets are now (at last) in play. 3/7
Consequently, the ‘great experiment’ I discussed over a decade ago (bravenewclimate.com/2010/08/03/ene…) will now play out in Australia. Unlike in Germany with the Energiewende, there is at least a chance of high-penetration (>50%) techno-solar (wind & sun) renewables succeeding here. 4/7
However, it is unclear what the relationship between % techno-solar penetration and $$ delivered energy cost will be, if the very high reliability-of-supply standard is to be maintained (…which is a fundamental frequency requirement of the electricity grid as we know it)? 5/7
The public / politicians assume the relationship will be linear or even diminishing (‘economies of scale’). I suspect it will be accelerating, as large-scale storage costs increasingly overtake generation costs as the primary contributor to the levelised cost of electricity. 6/7
So, the energy pathway to 2030 will be fascinating to watch. If large-scale techno-solar + storage really is feasible (I doubt it but can’t rule it out) --- then it’s a great win for climate-change action. If not, then nuclear energy deployment will have to be on the table. 7/7
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