PA update: With a few hundred more mail ballots counted today, Oz's lead over McCormick in the GOp Senate primary is now 977 votes (0.1%). What we think is left...
* Per the PA Dept of State, up to 5,400 mail-in ballots, but "it is likely that the estimates include rejected ballots that have not yet been recorded"
* Appx. 200 military/overseas ballots to be counted Wed.
* Appx. 800 provisionals, which so far have split 154-154 Oz/McCormick
This continues to leave us well within automatic recount range. The biggest remaining variable may be potential litigation involving whether to count mail-in ballots that were signed but not dated. That could expand the mail pool by a small but possibly crucial amount.
And here, per @DavidMDrucker, is the McCormick campaign filing suit to count the mail-ins that aren't dated. As of now, the state hasn't issues guidance to counties on how to handle these ballots: washingtonexaminer.com/news/mccormick…
And now the PA GOP takes a stand against McCormick’s argument:
PA update: Oz leads McCormick by 1,241 votes (0.1%). It is inevitable that this will land in mandatory recount territory - a process that won't begin until next week and could stretch into June. But it's not clear who will be leading and by how much when the recount begins...
What we think is left to be counted:
- 31 precincts in Allegheny County due to technical issues. This should amount to 1,500-2,000 total GOP votes a& hey aren't likely to be counted until next week. This is McCormick's base & he's been beating Oz 39-33 in Election Day votes here.
- Some precincts in Philadelphia have also yet to report their election Day vote. This should amount to ~900 total GOP votes and Oz has been beating McCormick by double-digits in the Election Day vote in Philly.
- Between 10k-15k uncounted mail ballots from across the state....
Some more clarity: PA has updated the number of uncounted mail ballots to account for what counties received yesterday. There are now appx. 32,000 statewide. McCormick has been leading the mail vote by 9 points and if he won these at the same rate, he'd net ~3,000 votes, but...
1) We don't know if the late-arriving mail ballots (Montgomery got 1,051 yesterday) will be more Oz-friendly 2) The biggest stash of uncounted GOP mail ballots is 5,172 in Lancaster County, one of the very few counties where Oz is already running ahead of McCormick w/ mail
Also keep in mind, you may see on here many huge-sounding numbers of uncounted mail ballots from various counties -- often these are the *total* number of mail ballots for a county, and the vast majority of them will be Dem ballots. Mail ballots are used *far* less by GOP voters.
Update on PA: Oz now leads McCormick by 2,564 votes (0.2%). It appears the biggest source of remaining *election day* vote is in Allegheny County -- around 6-7,000 votes. This is McCormick's home county and he is currently winning the same-day vote there 39-33% over Oz...
...there also appear to be 10 precincts in Delaware County yet to report election day vote. So far McCormick is leading the E-Day vote in Delaware 34-33%.
We are checking with counties to determine if there are other significant sources of Election Day vote yet to be reported. Beyond this, there also appear to be be ~20,000 mail-in ballots yet to be reported. So far, McCormick is leading the mail-in count statewide by 9 points...
One of the biggest reasons Trump lost PA in '20 after winning it in '16 was the ground he gave up in the heavily-populated Philly suburbs. It's what makes some R's nervous -- and many Dems optimistic -- about what Mastriano and/or Barnette wins tonight could mean for the general:
And while Mastriano and Barnette could pose serious challenges for them, what R's will have going for them in PA is that the state has been voting several points to the right of the country since Trump's emergence and the midterm climate should be broadly favorable to them:
Also interesting to look at Western PA: Trump actually increased his plurality overall by 1,930 votes there between '16 and '20. He lost a net of 38,604 in Allegheny County but gained 40,554 everywhere else in the region.
Whether it's Cuellar or Cisneros as the Dem nominee, TX-28 looms as a general election race to watch closely this fall. It's in the heart of South Texas, a traditionally Dem region that swung massively and unexpectedly toward the GOP in 2020...
TX-28 went for Clinton by 20 points in '16, but Biden by just 5. Under the re-map, it got slightly more Dem -- w/ the new lines it would have been Biden +7. It contains some areas with particularly massive swings. Heavily Hispanic Starr County went from Clinton +60 to Biden +5.
On paper, Cuellar is the stronger general election candidate. He still won in '20 by 19 points and performed well in the areas where Trump made his biggest gains. The wild card w/ Cuellar is the recent FBI raid - would it complicate his Nov chances? texastribune.org/2022/02/01/hen…
Going to post some VA trends/numbers here, starting with the history that Dems are up against: The party that has the White House has lost all but one VA gov race in the last 40+ years and has lost every time it has also had control of Congress (5 for 5 coming into today):
Geographically, Dem strength is heaviest in Northern VA and also strong in the Richmond area Hampton Roads cities. Republicans are strongest in rural/small city SWVA, Southside VA and the Shenandoah Valley. The '20 Trump/Biden result by region:
VA's shift from red to light blue to Biden +10 has been powered by high population NoVA, which had already been moving away from the GOP pre-Trump but only accelerated in its leftward drift when he emerged: