Thread by @kevinbonham

Re #Brisbane, Labor has taken the lead on primaries in the race for second. But micro preferences will favour Greens significantly and I don't think Labor gets enough lead. A fair chance that we see a winner from third on primaries here.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-h…

People might think UAP and ON prefs would help Labor more than the Greens but the problem with that is that the LNP is still in the throw, drawing dead but soaking up the right-wing side of those prefs. What's left includes some voters who just hate the majors.

One thing that gives Labor a chance in Brisbane is the higher rate at which postals are coming back than normal. If their current rate of gain continues across all the postals, Labor could still just have enough to win. I doubt it will though. Will be interesting to see.

Sometime before too long it's likely the Brisbane count will update, Labor will jump to a lead of hundreds and people will be saying Labor is winning. But I understand the flow to Labor over Greens on postals is weakening making it even harder to get enough lead.

Also I was expecting absents to be down in line with booth voting but this actually *isn't* the case, there are over 6000. (Absents are normally strong for Greens.)

First postal update has gone up and yes the total gain rate on postals has weakened significantly. I think still need to see some absents but if they more or less do their usual thing the Greens will win.