Psephologist, polling analyst and poll transparency advocate, political commentator, ecologist, chess player/admin. No party loyalties. Not-A-Pollster.
Nov 16, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Just a general comment about all support for "truth in electoral advertising" laws - I understand that many people think that they are now more important than ever to combat Trumpy candidates with no regard for truth, but that view is naive.
Trumpy candidates would fall foul of such laws, sure, but they would just get off on it. Every finding against them would be cited as more evidence of an elite conspiracy against them and used to get more publicity.
Oct 16, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
"While the Constitution was hard to change it was not meant to be impossible"
There's no evidence it's impossible. Rather we know that putting up contestable proposals mid-term kills them, this isn't a valid test of a serious attempt to change.
theage.com.au/politics/feder…
The specific Voice proposal was seriously flawed. It argued in effect that politicians could not do their job for First Nations people without an entrenched body to advise them, but also that politicians should be given unlimited scope to design that body as they wished.
Aug 27, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Because there is always more and there is always worse, I have found still more evidence of the Coalition being asleep at the wheel on the referendum ticks and crosses thing they blocked Labor's attempt to change in 1989 then did nothing about in 34 years.
On 24 Oct 2009 there was a hearing of the Standing Committee on Legal and Constitutional Affairs at which the tick/cross matter was discussed by @MichaelMaley7 and present MP Julian Leeser said "I would like to see, for what my submission is worth, the tick provisions removed."
Aug 26, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Further on the staggering lack of foresight and abrogation of responsibility by pro-No politicians whinging about the ticks and crosses referendum thing this is the AEC's ballot paper formality guide
[thread]aec.gov.au/Elections/cand…
The formality guide is widely read at election times as it is essential for party scrutineers. By use of Wayback I have established that it has existed at the same URL and contained essentially the same advice re ticks and crosses in referendums since at least Aug 2013.
Aug 10, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Electoral Matters hearing: Vic Labor State Secretary and Assistant State Secretary say they in principle support axing Group Voting Tickets but they don't have a clear preferred model and their support is conditional on what the model is.
#springst
I would like everyone taking such a position to state at least one model they would actually consider to be an improvement on the status quo.
Jun 12, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
This was on track to happen next month but we're here already. #ResolvePM is the first Voice poll to have the Yes vote below 50% forced choice. (49-51, down 4).
There is also a 42-40 lead for Yes with undecided allowed (which I suggest the forced choice Q shows to be meaningless).
Jun 11, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
#taschess news yours truly loses two classical games in one day for the first time in SEVENTEEN AND A HALF YEARS!
This was in the 2023 Tasmanian Open, the winner(s) of which will be decided in the final round tomorrow. The top final pairings are:
Will Rumley (4.5) - Zach Lim (4.5)
Fabian Ivancic (4) - James Briant (4)
Carl Gorka (4) - Ian Rout (3.5)
Jun 4, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#Newspoll 55-45 to ALP
#Newspoll ALP 38 L-NP 34 Greens 12 ON 6 others 10, virtually unchanged from previous,
That is the worst result for Yes on a two-answer basis (c. 51.6) so far.
Note that question method has changed since previous Voice Newspoll, with actual referendum question now used.
Jun 3, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Utting Research ALP leads 61-39 with a primary of 52% but there are headlines hyping this as suggesting hope for the WA Liberals. Hope that in an election held now they might win as many seats as the Nationals?
Cook net +16 (42-26)
Mettam net -2 (31-33)
Cook leads as better Premier (skews to incumbents but less so when a leader is new) 50-24
Haven't seen full article but Utting are usually robopolls and sample size is modest (800).
Jun 2, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
It's not clear to me whether the 4 seats referred to are meant to be the 4 Labor won on primaries or the 4 that finished Labor vs Green with Labor winning but either way it's an exceptionally deceptive claim and should be deleted. #springst
One could say that all Labor winners where the Greens were excluded received Greens preferences in the 2PP count but that ignores many where Labor had crossed the line if not on primaries but at least before the Greens were excluded.
Jun 2, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
It saddens me to inform the house that on May 26 something claiming to be a newspaper published something claiming to be analysis by somebody claiming (probably correctly) to be John Black.
So we are supposed to believe that in for instance Kingston (ALP 49.2 Lib 25.85) the outcome was determined by the primary votes for minors and indies and the way "they allocated" [sic] their preferences.
Apr 19, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Legislative Council button press is proceeding in NSW (it takes about an hour). So far only the first four elected. The only suspense early on is at what point the second Green crosses.
Second Green over during distribution of minor candidates. Near the end now.
Apr 18, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
#ResolvePM federal ALP 42 L-NP 28 Green 12 ON 6 UAP 1 IND 9 (likely overstated) other 2. My 2PP estimate 61.5 to ALP (+2.1) Resolve's regular polls skew to Labor cf other polling (this is not true of their polls late in campaigns which use different methods.)
61.5 is the highest 2PP conversion I have for any poll in this term just beating 61.3 also from Resolve in Aug 2022. Nobody else has been above 57.4 on my conversions or 58,5 as a pubished 2PP. (Resolve does not normally release 2PPs and didn't for this poll.)
Apr 17, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Quite likely around 1 in 10 enrolled voters will indeed not vote (even higher including informals) but I'm very sceptical that this longwinded and problematic question will capture these people.
Among other things it uses the word "registered". This aint the US, in Australia we say "enrolled". "registered" is all sorts of potentially misleading.
Apr 17, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
NSW Legislative Council update - the nearly complete check count is converging towards my model off the initial count though the Coalition still has some catching up to do.
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/03/2019-n…
If the initial count was representative as concerns ATL votes then Animal Justice appear to be too far behind to be likely to win on preferences (still might get there, but looks unlikely). However ...
Mar 29, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Just a note on what happened with sites doing projections on Saturday night that resulted in a number of apparent Labor wins and what seemed a near-certain majority collapsing. The main issue was overconfident assumptions about prepoll swings replicating booth swings. #NSWvotes
Not only is there a general trend of prepolls having a lower swing than booths at this election but the gap happens to have been especially large in some seats where Labor needed it not to be. Holsworthy 5.8% different, Terrigal 4.0%, Ryde 4.4%, Goulburn 3.3% Kiama 3.5%
Mar 28, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Hearing there's silly stuff about #nswvotes being a "landslide". Crazy example from yesterday pm (by which time majority was already unclear):
" Barry O’Farrell defeated Kristina Keneally in a landslide victory similar to Saturday’s."
High chance now that NSW will get a hung parliament. But it's a vanilla one where it's clear who governs and they just don't quite have a majority, not one of the really close ones that hangs in uncertainty until some indie finishes one of his sentences 17 days later. #NSWvotes
Also ABC 2PP down to 54-46.
Mar 26, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Tasmania has the last Liberal state government in the country now so does that mean Tasmania is politically conservative? NO!
A thread following #NSWvotes to explain this issue.
#politas1. It's easy to see from federal stats that Tasmania is not "conservative". Tasmania had Labor's highest state 2PP at every federal election from 1993 to 2019 (but not 2022).
Mar 18, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
I detest signs like this and they are the main reason why I cannot support fully fledged optional preferential voting. #NSWvotes
