Thread by @chriswratil

It increasingly looks like 🇩🇪 Bundestag vote for #heavyweapons to 🇺🇦 has achieved nothing — perhaps even the opposite of its intended objective: gov line of hesitation & caution appears unchanged, but pathways to amending this line have narrowed down due to vote. Short 🧵 (1/8).

Many observers (incl. I) assumed that gov felt hindered by a lack of parliamentary mandate to step up weapons support or at least, would change course when receiving mandate. But voices inside & outside 🚦 coalition doubt there has been a change 👇 (2/8).

https://twitter.com/marcusfaber/status/1527530562235269120?s=21&t=V4fQYxFNOu7LbYuIMJh-UQ

https://twitter.com/annewilltalk/status/1528485134537728007

I won’t speculate about the reasons for inertia — just assume that significant forces in gov are not willing to do as much as possible & demanded by many MPs. So what can be done now? Ironically, Bundestag vote for #heavyweapons legitimizes & consolidates hesitant gov line (3/8).

1. Text of vote conditions deliveries on other factors eg. 🇩🇪 NATO duties & capabilities 👇. Essentially, it thereby validates gov previous claims to send whatever *itself* deems „possible“ — by own assessment. Debatable how much material change vote implied in first place (4/8).

2. Bundestag vote for #heavyweapons has now created faith in the assumption that 🇩🇪 is (will be) delivering such weapons (eg. in survey q’s 👇): if Bundestag said so, it must happen! It diverts attention from the question of whether gov is *actually* doing what it could do (5/8).

3. If gov doesn’t want to change approach itself, only way to enforce a more robust approach is further Bundestag action — either by threatening gov survival or binding gov hands legislatively. Given last month’s vote for #heavyweapons, both pathways are more unlikely now (6/8).

Many MPs will feel that first vote delivered enough (cheap talk) to save 🚦 face in public, incl. some MPs willing to pass a more substantial vote a month ago. Problem is: any piece of legislation now would reveal that Bundestag doesn’t control gov & earlier vote failed 😣 (7/8).

In other words, while effective legislation would have been an easier option last month, the stakes are much higher now: what looked like a policy disagreement btw gov & parl. majority then, would now reveal a deep rift btw gov & its parl. support.

Looks like #scholz won (8/8).