Thread by @J_JHelin

A lot has happened today around Popasna and the Severodonetsk kessel. @emilkastehelmi talked about it in finnish, and now I'll do it in english.

It's time for another look at topographic maps, this time at the entire Kramatorsk - Severodonetsk bulge.

A thread 1/?

On the map above I've drawn the approximate Russian advance and Ukrainian positions as of now. I've also marked the two main routes from Bakhmut to Lysychansk. T1302 through Soledar and Berestove, and T0513 through Siversk. 2/

Even though the battle for the Popasna heights is still ongoing, it seems that the Russians have gained the upper hand, apparently solidifying their hold on Vasylivka and pushing through Volodymyrivka or Vasylivka to cut the T1302 north of Soledar. 3/

As discussed previously this puts the Ukrainians in a bad position and according to rumours the Ukrainians have stopped reinforcing the troops fighting in the pocket, cutting their losses and withdrawing to a more defensible line. 4/

This is also supported by the rapid Ukrainian withdrawal from Svitlodarsk, where they tried to blow up a dam behind them, and the almost as rapid advance of the Russian forces northwards. 5/

With the T1302 being cut and Russia apparently gaining a solid hold on the high ground the T0513 is also under threat. The terrain between the cut north of Soledar and T0513 is very flat and open, making it easy terrain for Russian mechanized forces 6/

If both roads are cut there's a risk of, according to some sources, up to four Ukrainian brigades being cut off from the rest of Ukraine 7/

However, the terrain here also works against Russia. In the open terrain, Russia needs to capture villages to find cover and concealment for their troops, and sometimes it feels that capturing even smallish settlements is like drinking tar for the Russians 8/

The Russian breakthrough at Popasna and the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces gives them a bunch of more-or-less bad options. 9/

Withdrawing from the Siverskiy Donets line means that Ukraine loses access to the best natural defensive line east of the Dniepr. The Siversk - Bakhmut - Berestove triangle is flat and the Bakhmutika river isn't very defensible, being quite narrow and in open terrain 10/

The next defensible terrain feature seems to be the high ground east of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, but falling back that far would mean giving up a lot of ground, and possibly giving up the troops in the bottom of the pocket cauldron 11/

However Ukr. has been reluctant to give up ground, so it's possible that they will try to hold on to the Bakhmutika river, although evacuating troops through these roads is challenging. They are already under artillery fire, and T0513 would end up very close to the front. 12/

In this case, however, the position in Siversk would be somewhat vulnerable as the terrain west of the city is very open, and it would basically be surrounded by artillery from both the Lyman and Popasna directions. 13/

The worst-case scenario here is of course Russia punching through to the T0513 and cutting Siversk completely from Bakhmut. In that case, however unlikely. Ukraine would basically be forced to withdraw to the hills east of Kramatorsk. 14/

From that position it's easy to see how the Ukrainian defense would shape out. Even if Ukraine doesn't have the Siverskiy Donets between it and Russia, it still has plenty of smaller rivers and lower hills to pull back to, while protecting important crossroads. 15/

I also encourage you to check out my partner-in-crimes, @emilkastehelmi, thread on the situation, even though you may have to translate it from finnish 16/

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1529145755574931456?s=20&t=wbuVBxgPiM6yNTqlu9N-Uw

And of course, as always, "the Finns" latest assessment of the situation at the front is available at scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The%…

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And finally, the ugly rainbow-topo map used here is from en-gb.topographic-map.com/maps/rgly/Ukra…