Kevin Bonham Profile picture
May 25 4 tweets 1 min read
#Curtin: Gap between Chaney and Hammond has been closing very rapidly on postals. But there are not enough left to erase it entirely, at best maybe cut it to 400 or so.
That would leave absents (which are bound to be good for Chaney) and dec prepolls (her prepolls have been OK so far but sometimes INDs do poorly on prepolls). Could finish inside 1000, still seems very unlikely it can be retained.

I will run the count health check on it.
No anomalies detected.

The high flows to Liberal are in Cottesloe and City Beach North which have low Green votes. The current count is most likely more or less correct.
It's a very handy thing that in general the better a candidate does on primary votes in a booth, the better they also do on total preference share.

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More from @kevinbonham

May 26
In Qld Senate, LNP has been making big gains vs One Nation today. Probably because the count contains a lot of early-received postals and no absents (meaning gain rate vs ordinaries is far higher than in 2019) but I will have a look tonight to see if there's more to it.
Given ON's poor primary performance it might be they do poorly on preferences as well - OTOH could be a stronger minor party preference flow to them cause of mandate issues etc. Need to check if there are distortions in the count in terms of seats that are more counted.
I am suspecting that it's more than just postals and that when I looked at the Queensland count on Tuesday night, large prepoll centres could have been under-represented in the ordinary vote count.
Read 6 tweets
May 24
Have had a few people ask me about Dai Le and S44 on account of tweets from various ALP supporters today. Her citizenship situation is way beyond my understanding so I refer those interested to the discussion in this thread.

Will pick up on a few points about the politics of it though: in terms of Labor and referring her they don't necessarily have to - within the 40 days after the return of the writs some random voter could challenge (cf Staindl v Frydenberg)
I think if a government ever discovered that an MP was *clearly* ineligible they would really feel obliged to refer even if the referral was unpopular.

But I don't think the primary source for the claim today has the slightest idea whether Le is eligible or not.
Read 6 tweets
May 24
Re #Brisbane, Labor has taken the lead on primaries in the race for second. But micro preferences will favour Greens significantly and I don't think Labor gets enough lead. A fair chance that we see a winner from third on primaries here.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-h…
People might think UAP and ON prefs would help Labor more than the Greens but the problem with that is that the LNP is still in the throw, drawing dead but soaking up the right-wing side of those prefs. What's left includes some voters who just hate the majors.
One thing that gives Labor a chance in Brisbane is the higher rate at which postals are coming back than normal. If their current rate of gain continues across all the postals, Labor could still just have enough to win. I doubt it will though. Will be interesting to see.
Read 6 tweets
May 24
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-s… 2022 Senate Postcounts: Main Thread

I have just started this one and will be unrolling states tonight in order of population so at this stage there's only a boring one (NSW) up. I should have Vic up in the next two hours.
Victoria added. This one has a very long way to go and is very messy especially as the primary votes are not settled yet. Might go to the button still in doubt. On current numbers one of Coalition and UAP electing the other seems plausible.
These are taking longer than expected but gradually getting them done. Queensland is added. I find no reason at all for doubt that Pauline Hanson will be re-elected.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 26
It shows that a not vast enough majority of voters will embrace centrism when the alternative is the far right. We don't really have anything like France's system here.
Either Labor or the Coalition would flog, say, One Nation in a nationwide 2CP by far more than Macron defeated Le Pen.
I can explain why we don't have a centre party though. The Democrats were an attempt that went well for a while but in the end succumbed to its own internal flaws and having too many members who were silly. Attempts since then have been embarrassing.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 26
Does the AFR win some kind of award if its coverage embarrasses it every single day of this campaign? This is abysmal poll interpretation here. This is the Marianas Trench of bad.

afr.com/politics/feder…
"The Coalition’s belief it will hold all or most of its seats in Queensland has been buttressed by the latest poll [..]"

1. I doubt anyone in the Coalition pays any attention to the rehatched Ipsos yet.

2. Your poll is showing 50-50 in Queensland, an 8.44% swing.
Coalition hopes have been buttressed by a poll showing that with uniform swing it would lose Longman, Leichardt, Dickson, Brisbane, Ryan, Bonner, Herbert and Petrie? Enough to give an ALP majority off the back of Queensland gains alone?
Read 7 tweets

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