Thread by @Nrg8000

🧵Today, in lieu of a full-Ukraine situation map, I'll be talking a bit about the Russian breakout in Popasna (heavily inspired by @J_JHelin, follow him), focusing on terrain. This map shows brighter colours as the terrain gets higher....

@J_JHelin As you can see, Russian troops have largely been following the higher-ground ridgelines to move their forward forces after breaking through defensive lines, meanwhile, units approaching from the low-ground have been bogged down and in many cases stopped by Ukraine.

@J_JHelin But on the high-ground they have been able to probe and assault quite deep behind Ukrainian lines, reportedly reaching the highway between Bakhmut and Lysychansk with forward recon units.

Ukrainian units have been pushed back from their initial defensive positions in and around Popasna that were able to take advantage of the terrain, and have fallen back to positions around urban areas and the hilltops that they remain in control of.

As much as the high-ground provides significant tactical advantages for Russian forces, they'll need to capture urban territory in the region to provide concealment & cover for the large number of troops they have deployed to this axis, as the high-ground is largely open fields.

Fortunately for Ukrainian forces, complex environments like urban areas negate some of the terrain advantages and provide defensive lines. Unfortunately, Russia's reliance on artillery bombardments and domination of the surrounding high-ground will make those villages hell.

The Ukrainian strategy in this case will likely be a continuation of their overall strategy of trading space for time and incurring significant costs on invading Russian forces while they conduct a slow organised retreat.

The first priority for Ukrainian forces, however, should be to evacuate civilians out of Soledar and Bakhmut in the coming days to avoid massive and heartbreaking casualties like we have seen in other urban areas, namely Mariupol.

Unfortunately, in terrain like this, it is far harder for saboteur teams to ambush and destroy enemy armour and positions, with Russia now possessing such a significant overwatch position over remaining Ukrainian areas, and narrow ridgelines preventing infiltration.

For example, compare the terrain to what exists around Kyiv, where these units were able to decisively attack enemy units and columns.

This axis could be, however, where newly delivered artillery pieces and loitering drones could impose a heavy cost on Russian forces. The areas Russian troops command currently have very little concealment, and costly urban battles will be required to gain concealed positions.

As such, the massive concentration of Russian troops and armour trying to move out of Popasna and into the surrounding countryside will be extremely vulnerable to artillery bombardment, drone attacks and potentially even ATGMs.

This fact, and the heavy Russian use of artillery, could even be why Ukrainian forces largely withdrew from the high-ground defensive positions without too much of a fight. But I need to be careful in not trying to tactically rationalise a withdrawal under pressure.

The landscape also provides numerous places for Ukrainian troops to set up defense-in-depth (crosses here), from ridgelines to urban areas. The most strategic one here is the large ridgeline between Bakhmut and Kramatorsk, one I don't see Russia being able to cross.

In short, this is a significant and likely eventually successful maneuver by Russian troops, one that may even threaten heavily fortified positions in Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk with encirclement, and force Ukrainian high command to make some difficult decisions.

However, it could very likely be the culmination of Russian offensive actions, with the assault in Izyum largely fizzling out, seriously retro (read unuseful) tanks being deployed, and serious continued costs to Russian forces.

And, after 90 days of conflict, the fighting has shifted from broad maneuvers across the landscape, to highly localised, highly costly battles much more akin to those in WW1 than what we expect from modern warfare.

IMO, the biggest strategic cost that even a successful operation of this magnitude for Kyiv would be the need for them to redeploy troops from Kherson or Kharkiv, to this front. Thus preventing Ukraine from launching offensive action of its own.

PS. @J_JHelin if you ever want to do more threads like you did on Popasna, hit me up and I can make you some bespoke terrain maps that you can annotate! I really enjoyed reading it.

PPS.
I'm a sucker and always on the lookout for good colour-ramps to use in mapping. The one I used here I actually stole from some kpop promotional art that someone retweeted onto my feed the other day, so if you see nice colours like that please keep me in mind and @ me!