According to Arestovych: the “Old Europe” block (France, Germany, Italy) + Hungary (which has its own separate interest) is now trying to slow down the necessary heavy arms supplies to Ukraine deliberately to prevent any possibility of Ukraine’s victory. The reason why they are
doing it is to prevent the emergence of a block of East and Cenral European states (Poland, Ukraine, Czech Republic, the Baltics, Rumania) backed by the UK, that would counterbalance France and Germany and effectively end their dominance of Europe. To achieve this purpose
they have, for all their hypocritical rhetoric, allied themselves with Russia, which is what Putin has been counting on. Without heavy arms Ukraine could only attempt to recover territorial losses at a huge coast in Ukrainian lives.
The role of the United States is ambivalent.
The U.S. has still not delivered any long promised MLRS, which are absolutely critical for a counteroffensive in the Donbas. Although the Biden administration is constantly proclaiming that its military aid to Ukraine is “unprecedented” and seems to have verbally endorsed
the principle of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, it is strongly slow do offer effective help.
This has already made sure that Ukraine’s casualties and material destruction it will suffer will be much higher than they could have been.
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A few words about “political realism”. Of course there is “real realism”, and in my view one of the best representatives of this real realism was Raymond Aron. And he defined it himself very clearly: realism in politics, in his view, was interest in the way things are right now:
not what they should be, or could be or will be in the future, but what they are at present. Realism does not deny that great ambitions can be achieved, that weak powers under certain conditions can defeat much greater ones (as happened in Vietnam, several times in Afghanistan,
and on other occasions) but whether right now the conditions exist that make realization of such ambitions possible in near future.
Realism does not exclude great ambitions, even in situations when the conditions for their realizations don’t seem to exist. One of the great
The most fascinating moment I have seen for some time: @YLatynina ask @arestovych directly about @AnIllarionov theory that during Zelensky’s visit to the, before the Russian invasion, the U.S. tried to pressurize Ukraine to surrender to Putin. She says: “Andrey Illarionov,
who is a perceptive person but sometimes goes too far, many times said that the U.S. demanded that Ukraine should sell itself to Putin. To be honest, I always thought that Illarionov exaggerates but what you are saying implies that it was practically the case”.
Arestovich denies this. He says that there were three groups in the White House and the view Illarionov described was one of them. There was also a staunchly anti-Putin and pro-Ukraine group (which still exists), and a “realpolitik” group, wanting mutual concessions by Russia and
Arestovich to the Americans: …waiting form a stab in the back from our Western allies, and also the economic hardship, because we have now lost a half of our economy, there will be a problem with the budget and everything else. So a very hard moth awaits us.
There will be a depression reaching the point of panic, mutual heavy accusations - the traditional Ukrainian brawl, which certain forces will attempt to turn into a political capital. Fiercely criticizing the government, trying to set different social groups against one another
the army against the political authority. Everything that they have already been doing will be intensified leading to hysteria, and more an more. So the month will be extremely tough. This month could have been not like this, if our beloved allies had supplied the weapons.
P: Even worse than in the Soviet Union?
C: Much worse. What are you talking about? Much worse.
P: The Soviet Union was also under sanctions, also nothing was produced there, scientific exchanges were difficult, etc.
C: Scientific exchange was difficult. Travel to the West and
meeting with one’s colleagues there was only permitted to a small number of persons: party members, KGB members. Many scientists worked for the KGB. They were allowed to go. Some where all the time going there and back. 99% could never go. I was never allowed to go anywhere.
And when under Gorbachev I was permitted to go out, I did not return. But foreign scientists were allowed to come to us, to conferences etc. We had contacts. Moreover, papers and many journals were translated and printed, Nature, Science etc, on the piracy principle. So we knew
P: …our scientists generally keep away from politics, but as I understand this time it was impossible to keep away
Ch: You know it was an absolute shock for all of us. I am not used to public political activity, it’s not what I do, but I considered it necessary to express my attitude, simply because I was born in the Soviet Union. Although I have not lived in a Russia but …you understand,
this burning feeling of being ashamed, it appeared again, when people ask you where I you from I long hesitate to say “I am from Russia…”, my tongue simply does not move. A shame, simply shame. So, of course, I simply wanted to state my attitude and help somehow.
Many reputations will be lost by both politicians, journalists, various analysts & “public intellectuals” because of their stand on the war in Ukraine & probably they will never recover - not even posthumously. And the politicians will lose the least - because they don’t
have much to lose. But it will be more like 1938-45 than post-war support for Stalin and the USSR. Many former communists later “saw the light”, they said “I was deceived”, “how could I have been so stupid?” - and many became firm anti-communists. And mostly they were forgiven
actually their misjudgment was understandable, the kind of thing that can happen to almost all, except those that have the firmest moral foundation for their outlook and above average understanding of human nature.
But thus war is like 1939 and there can be no excuses, and