Math. prof at the University of Warsaw (topologist). British & Polish citizen, perm. resident of Japan. Reaganite, Thatcherite, Zionist, anti-“Green Utopia”
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Mar 23 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
From Russian Telegram channel “Vatnoye boloto”
Pay attention to this.
Absolutely all the “important details” about the terrorists and their detention have been selected in such a way as to make the maximum impression on a typical representative of the “deep masses”.
First.
"Terrorists" are not Ukrainians. Ukrainians - that would be too direct. Yarosh's business card, Azov flags, cries of "Glory to Ukraine" would arouse suspicions of manipulation and deliberateness even among many ordinary people.
Mar 14 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
After listening to several interviews with Ukrainian senior artillery officer who goes under the pseudonym "Arty Green"
a rather obvious thought came to my mind.
Arty says that the war is not completely dominated by drones.
Artillery, which has so long dominated it, is now very much in second place, or, as he puts it, it has already been defeated. Drones now dominate not just the battefield but the war. And a race is on, or rather several races. One is between drones and anti-drone measures.
Feb 4 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
After October 7th many observers, including myself, were convinced that Netanyahu's long political career was practically over. The Israeli public would tolerate him for as long as it took to obliterate Hamas, but would never forgive him for allowing the disaster to occur.
But now his political survival looks increasingly likely and this is entirely (as usual) due to the Israeli Left.
After the terrible massacre it became clear that Israeli policies both in the political and military sphere had been terribly long. Netanyahu cannot alone be
Nov 22, 2023 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
More experiments with Wolfram Mathematica and ChatGPT working together and some surprising (for me anyway) discoveries. I don't know, but they may even be significant for AI in general. To put it briefly: it looks like it is overconfident.
When it thinks it knows the answer to a problem (even if it is wrong) then, even if it has the means to check this answer with some external tool, it will chose to tell you its (wrong answer). And it will even lie and tell you that this is the answer it got by using the tool.
Nov 18, 2023 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
The war in Gaza shows the limitations of hybrid warfare. Hamas‘s tactics was initially very clever. It managed to completely mislead the Israelis by pretending to have become more “moderate” after the Israelis relaxed restrictions on transfer of funds to Gaza and allowed more
Gazans to travel to and work in Israel (some of these workers provided Hamas with the information it needed to carry out the attack). Hamas also successfully used the old “cry wolf” tactics - by staging 9 or 10 “practice assaults“ before the real one.
Oct 16, 2023 • 22 tweets • 4 min read
@DStrungk @CarlEdman First of all, I would say, it was completely to be expected. No surprise at all. So the fact that people are behaving like if it was some kind of surprise I can only explain as either due to them being completely out of touch with reality (wishful thinking or it’s opposite)
@DStrungk @CarlEdman or that they are engaging in propaganda (most often all these things at the same time).
First of all, let me remind you that when PiS won the parliamentary elections in 2015, Jarosław Kaczyński predicted that they would stay in power for two parliamentary terms.
Sep 18, 2023 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
Romanenko and Arestovych criticize sharply Ukraine’s position in the “grain conflict” with Poland (also a few words about Volhynina) 1/3 2/3 Romanenko on the Polish elections
Aug 24, 2023 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
At the time when Prigozhin unexpectedly made a deal with Putin instead of continuing the seemingly unstoppable advance on Moscow, Arestovych made a prediction, which turned out to be pretty accurate (he mentioned this yesterday).
He predicted that something would happen to Prigozhin probably in September, once the problem of the “African succession” was dealt with. Well, he seems not to have been far off - September is almost here.
Obviously Prigozhin, who was not entirely stupid
Jun 28, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
A lot of people have suddenly become experts on the Wagner Group and a lot of false or half true information is circulating.
So a few facts that don’t appear to be so well known.
The Wagner Group was created about 10-years ago by Dmitri Utkin (whom I call “Frankenstein’s Monster”, because of the way he looks. Perhaps I am guilty of “lookism” 🤔).
Utkin was a lieutenant colonel of GRU - Soviet & later Russian, military intelligence.
Jun 24, 2023 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Several observations about the Prigozhin rebellion so far.
1. It seems that the Wagnerites did not hesitate to fire on Russian army personnel or shoot down Russian army helicopters, while there is no evidence that even one shot was fired at them.
In particular, the Kadarovites took for ever to reach Rostov on Don and when they arrived waited carefully outside never making contact with the Wagnerites.
Jun 24, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
From Michael Nacke’s Telegram:
Putin's speech is just awful. I think he wrote it himself, because he just played Prigozhin’s game. I can say a lot about it, but I will focus on only two points.
1) Weakness. A dictator must exude strength and confidence; any dictatorship rests on faith in the power of the ruler. He should have said:
"Prigozhin rebelled, will be destroyed in the near future." He could also have tried to drag Budanov in, saying that he had recruited him.
Jun 8, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Today I had an exchange of e-mails with Alexander Gogun, the very talented young Russian historian living in Berlin, the author of a number of fascinating studies related to WWII.
@YLatynina called him the third in the trio of great Russian historians of WWII: Suvorov (Rezun), Solonin and Gogun (Gogun is, of course, much younger than the others).
Our exchange was about possible Polish translations of Gogun’s books. I don’t need any translations, as I
Jun 8, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
One more comment on the claims by Washington Post, based on alleged “leaks” from US intelligence, that Ukrainian military planned and perhaps carried out, the destruction of the Nord Stream 2. This was very strongly denied by Zelensky. But there is an even better argument.
Mikhail Krutikhin has given very detailed technical arguments why such an action would be extremely difficult and costly to carry out. I won’t repeat these arguments but it’s basically due to the fact that the pipeline was carefully built to protect it from acts of terrorism
Jun 7, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
From Yigal Levin’s Telegram channel:
The Polish government has taken a loan of $7 billion from South Korea, which will be spent on the purchase of South Korean military equipment for the Polish Army.
@moutet
Yoga Levin is an IDF officer and one of the best military analysts of the Russia-Ukraine war. His Telegram channel (posts both in Russian & Ukrainia) is one of the best sources of information on the conflict & related matters.
Jun 6, 2023 • 22 tweets • 4 min read
I finally watched Mikhail Fishman’s interview with Sergei Pugachev, given three weeks ago.
I left it for later because all interviews with Pugachev are riveting and they always change one’s view of things and contradict many commonly held ideas.
And this one is no exception, in fact, its impact is more powerful than perhaps that of any other. It already has gathered more than 1.2 million views.
Feygin: I was a deputy together with him in the first Duma. As usual for such characters, they created some institute for him. And this is what he says. Please pay careful attention.
Jun 4, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Partial translation:
Feygin quotes the Reuters report, according to which Russia’s Taman port is stopping export of LPG gas because of concerns over drone attacks. Taman accounts for almost 8% of Russia’s LPG exports and 20% of exports from Kazakhstan.
This decision was taken after drone attacks on LPG terminals in Krasnodar Krai.
Feygin also mentions that in Shebekino, which has been occupied by the Russian Volunteer Corps, the world’s third largest factory of artificial sapphires was burnt down.
Jun 4, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Many fascinating subjects discussed in Arestovych’s latest livestreams with Latynina and Feygin, some of which I want to summarize & comment on here. There was a particularly interesting discussion of Erdogan and Turkey, which I want to return to later.
But first Feygin-Arestovych (translation & comments a little later). The subject is this news item from Reuters
The Reuters report about the burning of the sapphire factory Monokrystal in Shebekino appears to be no longer accessible but there are
May 13, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
This text from a Russian Telegram channel. It’s really something else. Here is a rough translation (I omitted most of the swear words).
It refers throughout to Ukrainians with the derogatory term “khokhols”. But this is roughly what it says.
In the beginning of this conflict Russia had an enormous military superiority over the khokhols. (He describes this superiority in detail, which I’ll skip). And for three months they (meaning the West) gave them nothing. They have them the first 4 HIMARS only in June.
May 11, 2023 • 37 tweets • 7 min read
Two days ago there was the second part of Govanov’s interview with Arestovych. I was planning to write about Dud’s interview with Kasparov which caused so much stir among the Russian opposition but this interview with Arestovych is the best yet
so I will start with it. Lots of fascinating remarks and acute analysis (and I agree with 95%). Also, many things to displease many …
I will go over it topic by topic. 1. On Western Machiavelliansim and the inevitability of the second war with Russia (before 2030).
Apr 2, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Whatever the truth about Tatarsky’s death (Nevzorov does not believe in the “girl and a booby-trapped figurine” story because he thinks in such a case dozens would have died. The design of the shell containing the TNT is crucial, he writes) these must be pretty unnerving times
for Russian propagandists. Because if Ukrainians did it, that means they can operate in St. Petersburg, Putin’s own old hangout, and mingle with very “select” company.
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