Edward Hunter Christie Profile picture
May 26, 2022 14 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/14
Those who follow the German discussion may have seen this article. The contents are accurate.
But the title *when shared on Twitter* is a serious falsehood: it says "NATO does not want to deliver tanks". Poland has delivered over 200.

tagesschau.de/inland/nato-sc…
2/14
Somebody at the public broadcaster decided that the original title "No tanks for Ukraine?" (see link) should be rendered on Twitter as "Informal agreement: NATO does not want to deliver tanks" (see tweet above).
A deliberately false statement in a headline for social media.
3/14
The contents of the article are accurate and carefully worded. It is clarified - correctly and importantly - that there are no NATO *decisions* on these matters, only informal consultations. And that each nation decides.
BILD and @JulianRoepcke were correct.
4/14
Important context is however missing from the article. Readers deserve to be reminded of the fact that Poland sent over more than 200 tanks. Knowing that, the logic that the govt says it has, and also attributes to other NATO Allies, falls apart.
5/14
Note this passage: (my translation)
"the existence of such an informal agreement was confirmed by GER govt sources (...) it is feared that Russia would deem the delivery of Western tanks and combat aircraft as an entry into the war"
6/14
Strange reasoning.
Poland sends tanks, fine.
But a different model of tanks = WW3?
Combat aircraft, this we do know from observation, no Ally crossed that line. Alright, that threshold is real.
But it looks like a creeping threshold: start with planes, throw in tanks?
7/14
Now go back to the attempt by the Permanent Secretary of the Def. Ministry to present the threshold of *Western* tanks *and IFVs* (more threshold creep) as something more formal than it is. Recall she implied going beyond it would be a matter for the North Atlantic Council.
8/14
We have now established that the Perm. Sec. was openly implying there is a need to do something that is in fact not required. Germany could send MBTs and IFVs right now, there is no need for a green light from the North Atlantic Council. So, what is Berlin up to?
9/14
What we have here is a reverse game of chicken with Vladimir Putin. In a game of chicken, team members egg each other on to be increasingly daring in the face of danger. In the reverse game, one participant seeks to be as timid as possible without being found out.
10/14
Step 1: split the group into two sub-groups, the daring (CEE Allies) and the big boys (US, UK, France)
Step 2: pretend the daring sub-group doesn't exist
Step 3: look for self-limitations in the big boys sub-group, construe and promote those self-limitations as group norms
11/14
Step 4: when challenged to do more, refer to the group norms that you have sought to create, and any other plausible narrative that justifies acting according to those invented norms.
12/14
I also contend that this pattern of behaviour has a longer and deeper lineage.
Since 1980, Germany (in green) has never been the largest European spender in current dollar terms and has tended to track France closely.
(Graph my own - data from SIPRI) Image
13/14
In the 1970s, however, there were years when Germany was the biggest spender. So GER doesn't always strictly self-limit based on comparisons with major Western Allies. Indeed, if Germany goes to 2% of GDP, this is likely to occur again, unless FRA & UK go to 2.5%-3%.
14/14
But CEE Allies are the new leaders now. And so it is high time that Germany matures to less convoluted thinking about its relative position within the Alliance.
Tips for Berlin: add Warsaw to the list of key capitals that define what is normal. And stop aiming low.

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More from @EHunterChristie

Mar 22
1-9

FT, based on 3 sources, says the U.S. has urged Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries.

The reasons cited make very little sense 🧵

If the story is true, Allied experts and govts should urge the White House to come back to reason.

ft.com/content/98f15b…
2-9

The fears the FT reports:

- Global crude oil prices may rise because Russia may "retaliate" by destroying the CPC oil pipeline that takes oil from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea through Russia
- Global crude oil prices may rise no stated reason

This is silly.
3-9

The article asserts that crude oil prices could rise without any proper explanation, as if the authors and perhaps also their sources were genuinely confused and ignorant about the place of refineries in the oil and oil products supply chain.
Read 14 tweets
Mar 14
1-x

A few points from President Macron's television interview with TF1 and France2 (link at end).

Rough summary, not chronological.

Journalist asks if he rules out sending troops to Ukraine

Macron: "Are you sitting down now? Do you rule out standing up after this interview?"
2-x

The journalists then try to pin Macron down quite aggressively - where, when, what. But that's evidently not the purpose.
3-x

Macron is laying out a direction, as I had described it some days ago:
The Defence Minister had "ruled out" anything beyond technical assistance.
Macron explains: the Minister described only what was decided at this time. Not what may come.

Read 32 tweets
Mar 9
1-6

Pekka is right to classify Pope Francis as a Vatnik, i.e., "a steadfast jingoistic follower of propaganda from the Russian government", as the formal definition goes.

But I see a larger problem: organised Christianity has been subverted from the top down.
2-6

Catholicism is led by a Kremlin-friendly imbecile.

Orthodox Christianity is sullied by the Russian Orthodox Church in all its forms and manifestations.

American evangelical communities are penetrated by cult-like attitudes towards Donald Trump.

A most ungodly landscape.
3-6

To the political agitators who've captured religious institutions, I say this:
You do not define Christianity.
And you will pay a heavy price for your sins.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 29
1-7

Scholz torn down in the UK for his antics

Strong language from the former Chair of the Defence Committee Tobias Ellwood in the Telegraph, and Ben Wallace, former Def Sec, and Alicia Kearns, current Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, in the Standard.

(sources at end)
2-7
Ben Wallace:
"Scholz’s behaviour has showed that as far as the security of Europe goes he is the wrong man, in the wrong job at the wrong time."
3-7
Ben Wallace:
"Time and time again Germany has been last to help Ukraine. At every stage they have had to be pushed or embarrassed into doing anything. That isn’t leadership that is followship."
Read 11 tweets
Feb 14
1-20
In my view, there is no reasonable doubt that Donald Trump's genuine intention is to abandon NATO and to allow Russia to destroy Ukraine and brutalise all of Europe.

John Bolton was with Trump in 2018 when he came close to leaving NATO.

politico.com/news/magazine/…
2-20
As Trump's National Security Adviser, Bolton had very many discussions with Trump - this was not a matter of just one angry day in Brussels.

Also, it was not a ploy by Trump to push Europeans to spend more to improve NATO, as some rear-guard defences of Trump claim. Image
3-20
There is no reasonable scope for doubting Bolton's warnings, which he put in his book and has repeated many times since 2020.
Bolton is deeply attached to the Republican Party and a straightshooter in his public statements.
Read 20 tweets
Feb 1
1-8
All of our social media spaces are penetrated by troll farms run by foreign hostile states, especially Russia.
If someone posts anonymously while claiming to be from Texas or Florida, they may or may not be who they say they are.
And we have no clue how many there are.
2-8
This affects everything. It changes the behaviour of all content creators, from established media to independent creators -- because hostile states can artificially boost some ideas, and some political candidates, over others.
3-8
This has been going on for years. And as political subversion deepens, it is increasingly being done by Western people against their own countries.
Read 8 tweets

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