Senior Research Fellow @FIIA_fi.
PhD @VUBrussel & Belgian Royal Military Academy.
Former @NATO official 2014-2020.
Views my own.
21 subscribed
Aug 23 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
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Some shocking sentences at the end of this Politico article on U.S. restrictions on how Ukraine's use of Western weapons:
Presented with the notion that the Biden Administration may have a negative legacy of not having done enough...
politico.com/news/2024/08/2…
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... Politico reports that "that framing has at times angered senior officials in the White House who insist Washington has done more than any other country to help support Kyiv and that it shouldn’t have to risk its own national security for Kyiv." (!!!)
Jul 30 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
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The time has come to plan for certain worst-case scenarios regarding Hungary.
I wouldn't have voiced these before -- they seemed remote and/or could've been seen as suggestions. But the dam is breaking given Orban's planned import of large numbers of Russian nationals.
2-10
So what is a worst-case scenario?
Quite obviously that the Orban regime invites Russian, Belarussian, possibly also Chinese, security forces and perhaps even military personnel to station themselves in Hungary.
Jul 17 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
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Quite some meltdown around Boris Johnson's claim that Trump would actually back Ukraine.
Notably from pro-Kremlin accounts, who are clearly fearful this might be true.
And from decent political liberals who dislike both men.
But the former is more interesting.
2-11
Ukraine is a legacy issue for Johnson. It is the one big thing he did which he knew was right, that the country knew was right, that the world knew was right. And he continued to argue for Ukraine after leaving office.
Jul 15 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Trump has picked JD Vance as his running mate.
This confirms the nationalist-populist and proto-authoritarian nature of a possible 2nd Trump term, which would be acutely dangerous to Ukraine, to European security, and to any small or medium-sized nation anywhere.
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JD Vance has repeatedly broadcast hostile views regarding Ukraine's righteous struggle to defend itself and regarding America's commitment to European security.
=> he is Moscow's dream VP pick
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Jun 17 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
A feature of French politics almost never discussed outside France -- because it would require knowing the language and consuming French media -- is that it has acquired a large right-wing media ecosystem in the last 8 years, notably television.
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This trend has co-accelerated with the continued success and diversification of less moderate right-wing views, ranging from a French version of 'national conservatism' to the positions of the far-right National Rally party (former National Front, of the Le Pen dynasty).
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May 30 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
A crucial data point:
Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen says the Danish F-16s headed to Ukraine soon are authorised to "target installations on the attacking party's own territory" including, for example, "weapons depots" ✔️
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kristeligt-dagblad.dk/udland/loekke-…
The line is simple, it's International Law: Ukrainians shouldn't target civilians in Russia, even though Russia does that against Ukraine.
And so DNK's position is without caveats: targets may be on the ground or in the airspace (or the waters) of the aggressor state ✔️
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Apr 26 • 24 tweets • 4 min read
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I've read Macron's speech in full.
It is actually quite good.
As is common with Macron, nothing is incorrect.
And there is also an emerging coherence to everything he touches on.
Summarising the speech would make this a 50+ post thread and I won't go there. But here are some essentials:
- Europe needs stronger defence capabilities, and more of them home-grown and self-reliant, based on a stronger, more coherent European defence industry
Apr 23 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
1-15
Velina makes a relevant point, namely that Polish President Duda's private meeting with Donald Trump likely had an important positive impact for what followed.
Note that the Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda also believes that this was the case (link follows).
We need to talk about another facet of American and America-focused propaganda: the weaponisation of the issue of drug addiction.
I believe this is a major blind spot in American discourse, with multiple core elements that are misunderstood 🧵 2-8
First, it is traditional anti-American propaganda, dating back to the days of the Soviet Union, to suggest to American voters a trade-off between money spent at home to alleviate social misery, notably homelessness, and money spent abroad, notably for military purposes.
Apr 17 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
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Very important press conf. at NATO with 3 Prime Ministers: Netherlands, Denmark, Czechia.
DNK PM Frederiksen: "[all of us] are we not better off sending a few of our own AD systems to Ukraine at a time where they, not we, are struggling daily..."
2-15
"...to fight off never ending Russian attacks? We know we have systems in Europe. Some of them need now to be delivered into Ukraine. And I think the answer to this question is of course a yes."
Apr 10 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
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"I mean it makes sense to me that we should destroy'em" ✔️
The right conclusion regarding Russia's refineries from U.S. Rep. Austin Scott (Republican, Georgia).
As for Celeste Wallander's legal reasoning, I believe it is incorrect in light of previous U.S. actions 🧵
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Wallander stresses the civilian nature of the refineries and implies that civ. infra should not be hit.
Here, Scott's reaction missed the mark: for legal scholars, an enemy's IHL violations don't justify responding with IHL violations (and rightly so).
Apr 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
"Trump is already partially in power and stabbing Ukraine in the back". My view of what Trump and his political associates are effectively doing, featured in the Norwegian newspaper Dagbladet [in Norwegian].
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dagbladet.no/nyheter/frykte…
Translated extract:
"This blockage has been going on in full for months, which is a very long time in a high-intensity war like we have in Ukraine. I mean, it's pretty sick."
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Apr 1 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
The way America's MAGA-Moscow movement cultivates the idea of abandoning Europe follows a systematic pattern 🧵
1: focus ALL of the criticism of Europe on its low defence spending, and make a generalisation out of it.
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This means deliberately overlooking cases like Poland & Baltic states; not recognising recent defence spending increases by most Europeans; mentally dropping the UK from the picture; and also not acknowledging that Poland spends MORE than the U.S. on defence as a % of GDP.
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Mar 30 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
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A dark scenario ahead: Russia and China would coordinate military aggression in their respective regions in the time window of the U.S. election in November.
I can't speak to the accuracy or likelihood of this.
But it would be foolish not to have a contingency plan.
While some may wish to know what the sources are, how reliable, whether this is based on concrete intelligence or merely just a speculative scenario, I suggest that good contingency planning forces us to prepare for such a scenario (among other scenarios, of course).
Mar 22 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
1-9
FT, based on 3 sources, says the U.S. has urged Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries.
The reasons cited make very little sense 🧵
If the story is true, Allied experts and govts should urge the White House to come back to reason.
- Global crude oil prices may rise because Russia may "retaliate" by destroying the CPC oil pipeline that takes oil from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea through Russia
- Global crude oil prices may rise no stated reason
This is silly.
Mar 14 • 32 tweets • 6 min read
1-x
A few points from President Macron's television interview with TF1 and France2 (link at end).
Rough summary, not chronological.
Journalist asks if he rules out sending troops to Ukraine
Macron: "Are you sitting down now? Do you rule out standing up after this interview?"
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The journalists then try to pin Macron down quite aggressively - where, when, what. But that's evidently not the purpose.
Mar 9 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
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Pekka is right to classify Pope Francis as a Vatnik, i.e., "a steadfast jingoistic follower of propaganda from the Russian government", as the formal definition goes.
But I see a larger problem: organised Christianity has been subverted from the top down.
Catholicism is led by a Kremlin-friendly imbecile.
Orthodox Christianity is sullied by the Russian Orthodox Church in all its forms and manifestations.
American evangelical communities are penetrated by cult-like attitudes towards Donald Trump.
A most ungodly landscape.
Feb 29 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
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Scholz torn down in the UK for his antics
Strong language from the former Chair of the Defence Committee Tobias Ellwood in the Telegraph, and Ben Wallace, former Def Sec, and Alicia Kearns, current Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, in the Standard.
(sources at end)
2-7 Ben Wallace:
"Scholz’s behaviour has showed that as far as the security of Europe goes he is the wrong man, in the wrong job at the wrong time."
Feb 14 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
1-20
In my view, there is no reasonable doubt that Donald Trump's genuine intention is to abandon NATO and to allow Russia to destroy Ukraine and brutalise all of Europe.
John Bolton was with Trump in 2018 when he came close to leaving NATO.
politico.com/news/magazine/…
2-20
As Trump's National Security Adviser, Bolton had very many discussions with Trump - this was not a matter of just one angry day in Brussels.
Also, it was not a ploy by Trump to push Europeans to spend more to improve NATO, as some rear-guard defences of Trump claim.
Feb 1 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1-8 All of our social media spaces are penetrated by troll farms run by foreign hostile states, especially Russia.
If someone posts anonymously while claiming to be from Texas or Florida, they may or may not be who they say they are.
And we have no clue how many there are.
2-8 This affects everything. It changes the behaviour of all content creators, from established media to independent creators -- because hostile states can artificially boost some ideas, and some political candidates, over others.
Jan 28 • 19 tweets • 3 min read
1-19
An important warning from Jakub Janda of a very plausible scenario.
We should not allow our national discussions to assume a central scenario of a Russian attack only in several years' time.
We must all plan, also, for a worst case scenario of cataclysm right away in 2025.
Why? Because Russia has momentum.
If Ukraine falls because of a major gap in materiel and ammunition, it would fall slowly at first, for some months, and then it could fall quickly.
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