Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

Russian advances in the Donbas are prompting a lot of commentary, including some irrational enthusiasm and gloom. It's worth looking at the bigger picture, as @ian_matveev (follow him!) has done in a thread which I've translated below with his permission.

From @ian_matveev: The Russian army has struck four heavy blows and breached Ukraine's defenses near Popasna. In a short thread, I will try to explain how in my opinion this will affect the war in the near future, and what to expect next.

To begin with, let's take a sober look at the situation. Two of the four strikes were assaults on Liman and Severodonetsk with massive artillery and MLRS support. This is nothing unexpected. These attacks have been prepared for a long time.

Liman is a small town on the north bank of the Seversky Donets River. It is on the same bank from which the Russian troops tried to cross at Belogorovka, though they have not reached the river at Liman yet. After the fall of Drobyshev, Liman is surrounded on three sides.

Liman became the obvious next target of Putin's army on its way to the Seversky Donets. The whole town has not been taken, according to various sources the southeastern part of the town is still in Ukrainian hands. But in the next few days it will definitely fall.

Severodonetsk became the second point of impact for Russian troops. It is already two weeks since Rubizhne - on the outskirts - has been captured. And there is as yet not much in the way of an attack on Severodonetsk itself. Is that unexpected?

No, it's quite expected that there will be another frontal attack by Russian troops, to which they have been going towards for two months by storming Kreminna, then Rubezhnoye (Kadyrov took Rubezhnoye four times, according to him).

Severodonetsk is now also under attack from three sides. But it will clearly hold out longer than Liman. In addition, there is also Lysychansk. And Putin's personal enemy, the Seversky Donets River. You can get bogged down here all summer long.

Can we not storm cities head-on, you ask? The Russian army was also asked. And it found an answer - Belogorovka. The answer didn't fit, so the new answer is Popasna. There is a massive breakthrough there to encircle the Ukrainians near Severodonetsk.

Putin's wet dream is shown in the picture - surrounding and cutting off Severodonetsk. Having amassed up to 10 BTGs near Popasna, which had been occupied as early as May 8, Russian troops attacked powerfully in the direction of Soledar and Seversk.

They were able to reach Vasilievka and Vladimirovka in the west, and Vrubovka in the north. I've updated this map a little bit from @Liveuamap .

Russian troops were able to come close to the highway connecting Lysychansk and Bakhmut, and a video of the shelling was shown yesterday. You won't believe it, but the Russian army got in the way... Belogorovka!

The overall advance of the Russian troops over the couple of days was 5-7 km in that direction. That's a lot for a local attack - it can even be considered successful. However, to completely encircle Severodonetsk another 20-22 kilometers are required.

Will the pace of the advance be the same in the future? Most likely not - based on the experience of the offensive south of Izyum about a month and a half ago, we know that 2-3 days is the limit for a Russian attack.

So it is more likely that we can now expect stabilization rather than further breakthrough. Although I repeat, this is war, anything can happen.

The fourth strike was launched by Russian units near Svitlodarsk. They occupied the entire area up to the Luhansk River, including Svitlodarsk. But apparently the Ukrainian units here immediately withdrew to the other side, offering little resistance.

They moved instead to the second defensive line. Let's look at the whole situation. The storming of Liman and Severodonetsk are expected battles in which Putin's army will lose a lot of strength. Liman will soon be captured, Severodonetsk will be held.

A breakthrough to Svitlodarsk is unlikely to result in much movement. It is a supporting flank offensive. The most dangerous, of course, is the breakthrough from Popasna. But it is not critical for Ukrainian forces either. For several reasons:

1. Severodonetsk is very far from being encircled. It will take a long time and a long offensive to surround it.

2. The corridor from Severodonetsk remains wide enough

3. The Russian army's offensive impulse cannot last long.

Unless they fundamentally change their approach and restructure their army, they will only be able to attack for 3, maximum 5 days in a row. Then there will be a pause, during which the Ukrainian Army will strengthen its defenses.

4. Putin is losing his remaining combat-ready units, like the Germans at Kursk. Analysts have already written that the attack from Popasna had to be launched simultaneously with the attack at Belogorovka. To overload the artillery of Ukraine.

But once again we see successive, rather than synchronous strikes. All this leads to high casualties, and the Ukrainian Army can defend with smaller forces, redeploying them to dangerous areas.

Long-range artillery like the French "Caesar" mobile howitzer can be simply deployed towards the enemy, without even having to redeploy.

5. In strategic terms, even the fall of Severodonetsk, provided the Ukrainian troops withdraw, does not change the outcome of the war.

They will simply retreat to new lines. It is a local area within the wider area.

Its loss would not change anything, except that it would lower morale a bit. That is, even in the worst case, Ukraine will not lose the war during the breakthrough at Popasna.

But I doubt that it will even come to that - the Russian army has shown its weakness and has not become dramatically stronger since then. As much as Putin's propaganda would like it to be (map from the LNR publicity pages).

Let's not panic about this. As long as both sides are combat-ready, there will continue to be attacks, including Russian attacks. Including successful ones. Because Putin's army is still quite dangerous. But it's no longer capable of radically turning the situation around.

Like the Wehrmacht in 1943, Putin's army is expending important reserves in new attacks, which will be in short supply when the Ukrainian forces move into the counterattack. I expect this by about mid to late summer (you can save this tweet).

In the meantime, I will keep a close eye on developments.

P.S. There is no credible evidence that Ukrainian units are surrendering or retreating in panic. Despite breakthroughs and massive attacks, Ukraine's defenders remain combat-ready and react appropriately.

Once again I take my hat off to @GeneralStaffUA and all the soldiers🇺🇦
/end

(with thanks again to @ian_matveev, who wrote the original thread)

@OSINTEng @Militarylandnet @RALee85 @War_Mapper @Blue_Sauron @Osinttechnical @oryxspioenkop @TrentTelenko @MarkHertling @DomNicholls @Nrg8000 @UAWeapons @TrueFactsStated @WarintheFuture @KofmanMichael @michaeldweiss @aravosis @JoshManning23 @general_ben @ian_matveev @tomiahonen

@UnrollHelper please unroll