Seeing some misinfo from containership bears/skeptics about 'NAV in peak markets. To be clear, what we cite as 'adj. NAV' at @Shipping_VIE are based on fixed charters and terminal valuations close to demolition.
For those who say "NAV will crash if markets turn down," Duh! The $326 and $135 is very high... That's a strawman argument here.
These stocks are wildly cheap. I believe containers offer significantly better risk/reward vs. other #shipping. Do your own DD and see what you think.
When rates come down in the future and asset values "crash," the raw NAV (assets minus debts) will come way down. However, in a falling market, charters become *more* valuable and adj. NAV might even go *up* in certain scenarios.
Has happened 2x already in past 15y.
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@VadimPlz@ClassicValueInv Dry bulk is much different for several reasons. 1- Ships are built to do 25-30+ yrs. Besides fuel burn there is almost 0 difference between a 26y or a 2y ship. // Tankers start to get passed over 15+ and are generally avoided 20+. Surveys for tankers 17.5+ are very expensive.
@VadimPlz@ClassicValueInv Dry bulk demand core is iron ore and coal, both of which are driven almost entirely by Asian growth and stimulus. Coal future looks weak. Iron is purely Brazil-China. Iron looked good in ‘19 then singlehandedly got disrupted by $VALE. COVID wrecked ‘20.
@VadimPlz@ClassicValueInv The dry bulk fleet is not particularly old nor is the orderbook super small. @JamesCatlin76 has been hammering on this for a couple years. Dry bulk orders have gotten massive Chinese stimulus via Valemax and VLOC programs.