J Mintzmyer Profile picture
May 26 3 tweets 1 min read
Seeing some misinfo from containership bears/skeptics about 'NAV in peak markets. To be clear, what we cite as 'adj. NAV' at @Shipping_VIE are based on fixed charters and terminal valuations close to demolition.

Comparison:
-$DAC: $326/sh (adj. $165)
-$GSL: $135/sh (adj. $44)
For those who say "NAV will crash if markets turn down," Duh! The $326 and $135 is very high... That's a strawman argument here.

These stocks are wildly cheap. I believe containers offer significantly better risk/reward vs. other #shipping. Do your own DD and see what you think.
When rates come down in the future and asset values "crash," the raw NAV (assets minus debts) will come way down. However, in a falling market, charters become *more* valuable and adj. NAV might even go *up* in certain scenarios.

Has happened 2x already in past 15y.

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More from @mintzmyer

Jan 1
Value Investor's Edge #shipping models gained 136.2% in 2021.

We beat the S&P 500 by 109% (4.7x) & Russell 2K by 121% (9.3x) + delivered a 6th straight year of sector alpha.

New 2022 models are now live! Two week research free trials available this week: mintzmyer.com
6yr performance based on tracked trades (2016-2018) and model portfolios (2019-2021). We switched to model portfolios in '19 for ease of tracking and updating. SEA ETF for industry comps 2016-2019 and for 2020-2021 we averaged US+Oslo #shipping stocks since there's no large ETF.
Our most profitable model position YTD was $ZIM, which wasn't included at the start of the year since it wasn't public yet, but I personally bought $11-$14 post-IPO and we added it to our Speculative model with a 2x weighting in our February 2nd rebalancing at $14.11.
Read 5 tweets
May 17, 2020
@VadimPlz @ClassicValueInv Dry bulk is much different for several reasons.
1- Ships are built to do 25-30+ yrs. Besides fuel burn there is almost 0 difference between a 26y or a 2y ship. // Tankers start to get passed over 15+ and are generally avoided 20+. Surveys for tankers 17.5+ are very expensive.
@VadimPlz @ClassicValueInv Dry bulk demand core is iron ore and coal, both of which are driven almost entirely by Asian growth and stimulus. Coal future looks weak. Iron is purely Brazil-China. Iron looked good in ‘19 then singlehandedly got disrupted by $VALE. COVID wrecked ‘20.
@VadimPlz @ClassicValueInv The dry bulk fleet is not particularly old nor is the orderbook super small. @JamesCatlin76 has been hammering on this for a couple years. Dry bulk orders have gotten massive Chinese stimulus via Valemax and VLOC programs.
Read 9 tweets

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