Getting MLRS guided rockets in either M142 HIMARS wheeled or M270 tracked launchers represents a phase shift increase in artillery capability for Ukraine.👇
American Guided MLRS artillery rockets are a combat proven precision guided weapon (thousands fired) with a 200lb (90.7kg) insensitive explosive warhead equipped with multi option fuzing that is set electronically.
They use GPS & inertial guidance for 3 meter accuracy. 2/
Both the US move away from cluster munitions & the 30 year rocket age have seen early MLRS unguided rockets disposed of.
And while pilot quantities of GMLRS were built with cluster munitions in the early 2000's. Most (>99%) GMLRS built have unitary warheads. 3/
To restore lost lethality of cluster munitions against radars, towed artillery & missile launchers in peer combat, a modified version of GMLRS has been given a much improved fragmentation warhead.
This "Alternate Warhead" will be available for GMLRS ammo shipments to Ukraine. 4/
Given the bad memories of losing soldiers to unexploded M26 rocket cluster munitions in 1991's Desert Storm operations. The US Army spend a lot of money to make the GMLRS fuze as reliable as possible, in addition to being multi-option.
It functioned 74/75 times in testing. 5/
It is accurate to say that the arrival of GMLRS missiles, and their launchers in numbers similar to the M777, in Ukraine's hands will overwhelm both Russian artillery and the railway logistics it in the Donbas.
The USA has over 40,000 GMLRS missiles available in stock.
6/
This is the Lockheed-Martin video celebrating the 50,000th GMLRS produced.
The recent lot 14 production award was for 9,500 GMLRS unitary and alternative-warhead (AW) rockets and over 300 low-cost reduced-range training rockets.
7/End
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This is one of the most logistically incompetent hot takes by any German journalist in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
95% getting through is a 5% loss rate per trip
95%(x) for 10 to 20 kills means x = 200 to 400 trucks on this route
10 trips means 40% total fleet loss - 80 to 160 trucks
1/
You can follow the 5% loss curve in this 500 unit fleet at 10 exposures in the graphic below.
A 40% fleet loss in 10 days from a 5% drone loss rate is logistical collapse for the Russian Army in occupied Ukraine.
Only some trying to get AfD eyeballs would say different.
2/
This leaves out the fact that the Russian Army doesn't use *ANY* mechanized logistical enabler like pallets, Truck D-rings, forklifts, or telehandlers.
Russian trucks are in the drone kill zones 3 times as long as a Western truck due to loading times.
"The DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, with a range of approximately 4,000 to 5,000 kilometers, was specifically designed and publicly nicknamed by Chinese military analysts as the "Guam Killer.""
As laid out by warquants -dot- com, China is buying one million OWA drones to destroy all US/Taiwan/Taiwan allied military logistics from Guam to the China coast.
A quantity of one million "Shaheed plus" class OWA drones has quality all its own.
Homicide statistics since the early 1960s are not comparable to earlier periods because medical advances have turned many fatal injuries into survivable ones.
I'm tempted to say the difference between military flag ranks who are competent at 2026 peer to peer warfare, and those who are not, is the understanding and application of attritional loss curves to combat loss rates, electronic warfare and logistics.
The set of curves I had an AI produce for me above have been used for air warfare many times starting at the end of WW2, in the USSBS after WW2 and by many classic RAND airpower studies from the 1950's to 1980's.
2/
All post 9/11/2001 Western flag ranks are counter-insurgency (COIN) trained & experienced.
They have no gut feel at all to statistical attrition models at all.
These "COIN-head" flags may prove to be highly resistant to changing this. Which is required to deal with drones.
2/
The effectiveness of drones is directly affected by the electronic warfare competence of the drone users.
The fact that the US Army defenestrated every EW practitioner in the 2000's and has compete "EW virgins" as flag rank leadership means it will fail with mass casualties in its first major drone war combat.
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