Getting MLRS guided rockets in either M142 HIMARS wheeled or M270 tracked launchers represents a phase shift increase in artillery capability for Ukraine.👇
American Guided MLRS artillery rockets are a combat proven precision guided weapon (thousands fired) with a 200lb (90.7kg) insensitive explosive warhead equipped with multi option fuzing that is set electronically.
They use GPS & inertial guidance for 3 meter accuracy. 2/
Both the US move away from cluster munitions & the 30 year rocket age have seen early MLRS unguided rockets disposed of.
And while pilot quantities of GMLRS were built with cluster munitions in the early 2000's. Most (>99%) GMLRS built have unitary warheads. 3/
To restore lost lethality of cluster munitions against radars, towed artillery & missile launchers in peer combat, a modified version of GMLRS has been given a much improved fragmentation warhead.
This "Alternate Warhead" will be available for GMLRS ammo shipments to Ukraine. 4/
Given the bad memories of losing soldiers to unexploded M26 rocket cluster munitions in 1991's Desert Storm operations. The US Army spend a lot of money to make the GMLRS fuze as reliable as possible, in addition to being multi-option.
It functioned 74/75 times in testing. 5/
It is accurate to say that the arrival of GMLRS missiles, and their launchers in numbers similar to the M777, in Ukraine's hands will overwhelm both Russian artillery and the railway logistics it in the Donbas.
The USA has over 40,000 GMLRS missiles available in stock.
6/
This is the Lockheed-Martin video celebrating the 50,000th GMLRS produced.
The recent lot 14 production award was for 9,500 GMLRS unitary and alternative-warhead (AW) rockets and over 300 low-cost reduced-range training rockets.
7/End
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Deploying lots of anti-tank and anti-personnel land mines with Gator cluster munitions dispensers was one of the major themes of the 1980's Follow On Forces Attack (FOFA) doctrine.
The doctrine was highly effective, hence Ukraine using it in 2026.
I called out the Chinese invasion requirements for Taiwan in May 2023 complete with a prediction they would have to be building satellite detectable 1944 invasion of Normandy Mulberry style infrastructure.
In that thread I connected classic "irrational regime" Chinese 'Wolf Warrior diplomacy' as a behavior indicator of how they would view the world wide maritime trade and financial collapse invading Taiwan would cause as advantageous to China.
I did two further @grok analytical passes which reduced the truck movements, first to 3K to 8K truck movements:
"Revised estimate: Likely 3,000–8,000+ effective military/logistics truck movements per month on key southern routes (e.g., M-14 segments, Mariupol–Taganrog/T-0509, Berdiansk/Melitopol spurs), potentially higher in gross passages but far lower in productive throughput than Western equivalents due to systemic non-mechanized constraints."
2/
And then down to 2.5K to 7K truck movements, See:
"Likely 2,500–7,000 effective military/logistics truck movements per month on key southern routes (M-14 segments, Mariupol–Taganrog/T-0509, Berdiansk/Melitopol spurs), with gross passages potentially higher to offset massive inefficiencies—but productive throughput remains severely constrained by non-mechanized realities, supplements like rail/barge, and systemic intelligence blind spots."
A hundred Russian trucks, with a high proportions of fuel tankers and wreckers concentrated on one or two supply roads or a single road junction in a couple of weeks is a horse of a different color.
That is anti-access area denial (A2AD) on a stick.