Thread by @renaticas

All 👀on #Colombia's presidential vote this #Sunday. An explosive context and very high stakes, which we summarized in this Q&A with my colleague @dickinsonbeth ICYM. A few extra thoughts 1/

crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…

Until recently, the two leading candidates were -for sure- leftist @petrogustavo and center-right @FicoGutierrez. Recently, though, populist candidate @ingrodolfohdez has appeared as a viable candidate to get the second highest vote and contest the presidency with Petro. 2/

Hernandez is a bit of an enigma- he has smartly ridden the indignation wave that led to the strikes of last year, but diverges from Petro's leftist discourse in significant ways. Known for "speaking his mind" and rather thin proposals, he echoes other populists in the Americas./3

Hernandez has the approval of some progressives, who welcome a second round where no candidate represents expresident's @AlvaroUribeVel right or the continuation of @IvanDuque's platform (Fico has tried to distance himself from Centro Democratico, but he is Uribe's candidate)/4

Others fear Hernandez's authoritarian and conservative leanings (he slapped an opposition politician, opposes the right to choose and pot decriminalization, etc). He has been described as a "troyan horse" because of his vague programmatic agenda. /5 bluradio.com/nacion/eleccio…

The spectacular failure of polls in #Colombia in recent years, and the veto on disseminating the ones conducted the week before the election makes Sunday vote an uncertain one- anything could happen./6

The electoral fiasco of the March vote (see Q&A for details) has allowed ALL candidate to express doubts about the electoral authorities, and could result in the loosing campaign not recognizing the results./7

Traditionally, Colombia knows who won in a couple of hours after the vote closes (6 pm) BUT that has been based on a preliminary, not official count. Given the issues of March, we might have to wait until the official results come in- which could be a couple of days. /8

This delay is not ideal given the propensity - esp. among Petro supporters given the March problems- to think there might be fraud. Anything short of absolute transparency could bring people to the streets in protest if they felt their candidate was robbed./9

We cannot completly discount @petrogustavo winning in the first round, as supporters of centrist @sergio_fajardo (who almost passed to the second round in 2018) have been abandoning his campaign, which was polling around 5% last week. /10

If Hernandez overcame Fico and passed to the second round with no partisan machinery or clientelistic widespread networks, this would be an extraordinary feat- and it would mean a reconfiguration of Colombian politics in an unprecedented way./11

The second round (if there is one) will be defined by how strong is the anti-Petro vote, something that polls cannot account for, but which is patent in conversations and social media. /12

In such a polarized country, the weeks before June 19th (when the second round will take place) will be tense, to say the least. Electoral violence would not unprecedented. Follow this space and @dickinsonbeth for updates in the coming days. /13

And any advice on so we keep calm in the midst of this all, do send them our way please 😂