Thread by @SabFis3

The mood in Moscow is swinging back to “we can win this thing”. This is very dangerous.

To all who currently think aloud about 🇺🇦 giving up territory to end the war, the West provoking 🇷🇺 too hard or irreversibly pushing it into China’s arms, (1/8)

#RussiainvadesUkraine

or a sanctions for grain deal (West partially lifting sanctions and 🇷🇺 ending blockade of 🇺🇦 ports - which is what Moscow cunningly demands): please be aware that you are corroborating this fatal belief in Moscow! (2/8)

@meduzaproject says it very clearly: "Kremlin officials are skeptical that Western nations can sustain their massive financial and military support to Ukraine if the war drags on. Sooner or later, Europe will tire of helping. (3/8)
👇👇👇
meduza.io/en/feature/202…

Closer to the fall, they’ll have to negotiate [with Russia] on gas and oil, before the cold season arrives."

In fact they already do, as recent contacts between Austria's Nehammer, Italy's Draghi and Putin suggest.

https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1530276522665418754?s=20&t=Qv-X0IcDIJ6wVq_9aDoJQg

(4/8)

It is essential to understand the implications: should Moscow be able to sustain full occupation of the Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea, they will feel encouraged after some time to move on towards Odesa and even Kyiv again. (5/8)

They can also rely on political instability in Ukraine which may bring down the Zelensky government - because a defeat in the Donbas and possibly the annexation of the occupied territories would make them extremely unpopular in the rest of UA. (6/8)

This is what’s going to happen if weapon supplies are delayed further, if the chance to give UA EU membership perspective is missed, if UA doesn’t get support in its effort to end the blockade of its ports and secure grain shipments. (7/8)

And no one should say they did not know it.
(8/8)