Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Sunday update. Looking at the Donbas, seems either the Russians are running short of vehicles or the Ukrainian Army is running out of the ability to destroy them. My guess the former--which explains a weird development in what the Russians are trying to do and what they cant do.

Overall, using Ukrainian claims of Russian losses at an indicator, there has been a real crop in combat intensity across Ukraine in the last week. Now fewer Russian losses are being claimed than before the Battle of Donbas started. Here are tanks and APC claims.

We are seeing a significant decrease in combat intensity, and much of that is in the Donbas. Its worth noting that between 55-65% of all claimed Russian losses are in this theater (thats from comparing Ukrainian communiques). This is a major theater drop.

My guess is that the Russians are simply running out of front line combat vehicles in that area (and much of Ukraine). Was interesting to see that the Pentagon on 26 May said they calculated Russian tank losses at approx 1000. defense.gov/News/Transcrip…

Pentagon estimates of Russian losses have actually not been high, so such a claim is worth noting. Its also considerably higher than osint photographic claims, while below Ukrainian claims of more than 1300.

https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1530799057416949760?s=20&t=RqCE37o-ieVtEu1KfB2C3ghttps://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

This is a huge number in any rational understanding of modern war. I also think it indicates that the Russians are running short of vehicles (instead of the Ukrainians losing the ability to destroy them) because of what is happening in the Donbas.

First off, the great breakthrough at Popasna has basically stalled (its now been 10 days since it was claimed). Russians have been unable to capitalize on the opening their artillery made, and are once again having trouble moving. One map.

Since the breakthrough the Russians have moved barely 10-15 kilometres--and that was mostly at the start before stalling.

Maybe even stronger evidence of them running out of vehicles is that they seem to have abandoned the (sensible) plan of trying to cut off SDonestk before attacking. Indeed, they seem to be trying to take the city now with direct frontal assaults. Hard to see them preferring this.

@TheStudyofWar has recently released some good analysis of that assault. Dangerous, costly and not worth the effort for Putin except out of political desperation.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1530708771219066880?s=20&t=RqCE37o-ieVtEu1KfB2C3g

That you would assault a city before surrounding it, starving its defenders of supplies and even bombarding it more is a sign that they believe that they cant do this. My guess is that they cant do this as they dont have the vehicles to encircle the town soon.

Russian advances seem mostly artillery based (which limits their potential). They can at times blast holes in the Ukrainian lines, like they did in Popasna, but they dont have the vehicles to exploit, and those that they try to press ahead get chewed up by defensive firepower.

Think this also points to a real problem in war reporting in the Donbas. There is lots of talk about overwhelming Russian artillery in the Donbas--but in and of itself, that only tells a small part of the story.

I tried to think through some of these questions in this @TheAtlantic article. The destruction of tanks and APCs on the battlefield is returning these advances to WW1 levels from WW2. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

And of course there is alot of macro evidence that the Russians are scraping the bottom of the barrel for front line armored vehicles. The movement of T-62s to the theatre has well documented, that is really desperate.

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1529435357808304134?s=20&t=RqCE37o-ieVtEu1KfB2C3g

Same for APC, with the Russians having to deploy ancient BMP-1s. Ukrainian communiques talk about facing both of these.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1530782912190242821?s=20&t=RqCE37o-ieVtEu1KfB2C3g

Long story short. Either the Ukrainians are basically on the point of collapse in the Donbas and the Russians are about to storm ahead--or the Russians are running very short of vehicles and getting a little desperate. My guess is the latter.

Does seem that the Russian move out of Popasna has really stalled, if Ukrainian claims are to be believed. There was talk of the Russians being about to cut this road more than a week ago.

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1530857655073492994

Head of Luhansk administration has tweeted a map showing the Russians being pushed back towards Popasna quite markedly.

https://twitter.com/serhey_hayday/status/1530881378950205441?s=20&t=KnZgPIShNfz_j9Y-JhMOtA

Morning @GeneralStaffUA update has Russian attempted advances pretty much limited to the city of SDonetsk. Otherwise seems the Russians are having to regroup to try offensive movements again from both the North (Lyman) and south of the pocket. Otherwise using ranged weapons…

To try and cut Ukrainian logistics.

https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1531130558495051776

And very low number of Russian armored vehicles claimed. 11 tanks and only 12 APC. If the 11 tanks include the ones mentioned in the Kherson fighting, would have been a very low day for armored vehicle fighting in the Donbas. Otoh, a pretty high number of art/mlrs.

https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1531168221981818880

With the lack of movement in the Donbas pocket, talk of Russians having to regroup and reorganise and the small loss rates for armored vehicles, it’s a little more evidence that the Russians really are needing to be careful with their surviving vehicles.

Btw, this does not mean that the Russians lack the vehicles to launch more attacks, it’s just they can’t keep offensive operations going, but need breaks to try and reassemble enough fighting forces to press on. If you are on the offensive, you don’t want to take such breaks.

Russians are clearly throwing everything into trying to take this small bit of the Donbas. The question is whether when the dust settles it was worth it for them to make such an effort.