Gray Connolly Profile picture
May 29, 2022 32 tweets 13 min read Read on X
“In parallel, some of the existing coal capacities might also be used longer than initially expected, with a role for nuclear power and domestic gas resources too,” the Commission said.

cnbc.com/2022/05/20/eu-…
Australia's black coal (very clean coal btw) trading at a near/record high. As Australia is an energy & resources superpower, we would squander our resources inheritance at great cost to ourselves and imperil our Allies who we help power in these very dangerous times. Image
“Coal has no future”

“Coal mines will be a stranded asset” Image
The US (like Australia & Canada) has abundant energy resources but its political class has made basic energy exploration & extraction only more difficult & more expensive … Biden now has to go cap in hand to the Saudis to beg for increased production

nytimes.com/2022/06/05/bus…
Germany: "....has spent more than €500 billion ($743 billion) transitioning its electricity system ... But it had to keep 89 per cent of its fossil-fired capacity ...It now boasts Europe’s most expensive retail power"
smh.com.au/environment/cl…
The French running on Nuclear (which the UK also buys) do not have this problem: "New modeling by energy consultant Cornwall Insight forecasts that regulator Ofgem’s price cap could soar 46% to £2,879 in October, then another 3.6% to £2,907 from January"

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
India & China are importing more Russian oil+gas & the EU zone is still importing as well: "Russia is likely to bring in $285 billion in oil and gas revenues this year—20% more than the $235.6 billion the country brought in last year."
fortune.com/2022/06/14/put…
Again: Australia's (very clean) black coal trading at a near record high. We were all told by the very same people now urging energy rationing *in winter* for Australia [which is blessed with coal, gas & uranium] that coal had no future & coal mines would be stranded assets. Image
The US Energy Secretary wants both a rapid expansion of US oil investments in extraction & refining BUT also wants to reduce these same industries in the next decade. A completely unserious clownshow

Bravo @clairlemon "...watching the European experience, we know baseload power can come only from coal, gas or nuclear energy. If our leaders do not manage this situation carefully and learn from other nations, Australians may have to prepare for an energy crisis that never ends" Image
The obvious solution in plain sight ... ⚛️🐻‍❄️ Image
No country has believed more in 'the Renewables' than Germany .... yet as Germany faces a gas crisis, esp as Russia restricts supply, Germany has realised its only real choices are Coal, Gas, or Nuclear ... and Germany has chosen .... Coal ... Brown Coal?
Germany being brutally mugged by energy reality - having idiotically sworn off nuclear, foolishly gone big into unreliable renewables, denied Russian gas, Berlin is now left with … coal … and probably dirty brown coal

See here by @RobHarris_SMH ⬇️ Image
Austria went off coal for cheap Russian gas & renewables but is now restarting a previously shuttered coal-fired power plant

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
We need 2022 versions of these

(Via @ianfarrow ) Image
#vivelafrance 🇫🇷☢️🌲🌏 Image
No one bought more into “the renewables” cult than the Germans … without Russian gas, and having foolishly sworn off nuclear, it turns out … coal is again king / Kaiser

trib.al/oXZ5p7k
Outstanding @clairlemon piece on the immense costs of 'the renewables' fantasy, economic & political: ever more expensive and unreliable energy as well as geopolitical weaknesses that are self-inflicted wounds. The only proven baseload & climate solution is Nuclear. Image
Time for our periodic check in on the 'coal has no future' mantra ... Australia is an Energy superpower and our [very clean] black coal is trading at near record recent highs ...

Again: coal, gas, nuclear ... pick your baseload Image
No one put more money into "the renewables" than the Germans ... plus anti-nuke lunacy

"Germany has responded to the cuts by reviving coal plants and providing financing to secure gas supplies, while continuing with plans to phase out nuclear energy..."

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Subtext here is not just about electric vehicles but about whether European grids (in varying states of repair/reliability) can support the massive load that charging EVs would place upon them, esp in all weathers/seasons. Reality > Fantasy

reuters.com/markets/europe…
Everything here was predictable years ago … the idiocy of European esp German energy policy of the past 20 years will be studied for decades to come.

[Australians should esp take note here re our insane fracking bans/moratoria]

trib.al/CcBe4ca
It is late June and the clock is ticking for most European states to secure energy in advance of the coming winter. The Russian energy weapon was always known about & was a sword of Damocles that the EU core thought could be always managed … ImageImage
The French are nothing if not realistic & Macron here schooling Biden on the reality of Persian Gulf producers. Biden esp choose US energy scarcity & now reaps what he sowed to placate green energy delusions

(Via @ShellenbergerMD )

Necessarily grim warnings by @JavierBlas to Europe re its disastrous energy problems - read every word here:

"European leaders should sit down at an emergency summit devoted to the energy crisis. Next month will not be too early."

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
"At the current rate of gas inflows, Germany would need 116 days to reach its target to fill 90% of storage capacity, which would mean it would take until mid-October to do so -- a time of year that households would usually start consuming more gas..."
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"Europe is now paying a hefty price for its false sense of political security following the end of the Cold War, which left it so dependent on intermittent renewables generation and a Russian gas supply it thought it could trust."

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
All across the Western world .... driving & transporting anything by road will get more expensive. As with all energy costs, the poorest will be hardest hit.

abc.net.au/news/2022-07-0…
Biden's Admin is unserious about energy supply - buried lede⬇️

"This week's auctions are a fraction of the size of those held under former President Donald Trump ....Trump's Interior Department offered 26 million acres to drillers over four years."

reuters.com/world/us/biden…
"Since taking office, Mr. Biden has labored hard to make American fossil-fuel production more costly so green energy alternatives become more attractive. He succeeded, and the result is record prices."

wsj.com/articles/biden…
Commodities markets - especially oil, coal, gas etc - run on 'animal spirits' & price in expectations of future plenty/scarcity of supply. The message from Western Govts, esp the US, is a "scarcity" future for very costly & decades-long exploration/extraction projects Image
The lethargy and delay ... and scarcity

"The proposal comes months behind schedule to meet the legal requirements, and faces several more months of reviews before the department can offer new offshore areas for lease."

wsj.com/articles/biden…

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More from @GrayConnolly

Nov 25
Social media bill is another very poorly drafted law from the very same people who drafted the Voice constitutional alteration (which failed) & the Misinformation/Disinformation bill (which was withdrawn). Sheer lunacy for the Coalition to support the social media bill #Auspol
One of many problems we have with our Parliament in 2024 is its membership is simply not across how modern economies & communications work - you do not have to be any expert but you do need some lay understanding. One saw this in the Misinformation/Disinformation bill #Auspol
As a matter of public law - which binds everyone & should be as simple to follow as law can - the social media bill has ridiculous complexity & carve-outs ... and it is unreal to legislate on social media access separate from AI & exposure to its knowledge & also 'fakes' #Auspol
Read 5 tweets
Sep 7
I am finally watching the @martyrmade / Tucker discussion on Churchill. I am not sure who among the critics have actually watched it. As I dislike Twitter pile-ons, I think everyone should watch what X says before X is put in the tumbril. My response as a Churchillian below.
Firstly, it astounds me (and no doubt many in the old Empire) why Americans in 2024 are so invested in the British Empire in the 1930s when the Americans of the 1939-1941 period wanted no part of WW2 & the US had to be bombed into WW2 & it was the Nazis who declared war on the US
Secondly, there is very little Darryl says that was not said earlier by many Revisionist historians of the same period, esp British ones wondering why they went through two continental wars that cost them their vast seaborne empire - cf Alan Clark, John Charmley, AJP Taylor etal
Read 25 tweets
May 8
US delaying arms & munitions to Israel is all about domestic US politics - US allies especially in the Middle East see Biden Admin wiling to dirk *even Israel* here means Egypt, Jordan, Gulf Kingdoms etal start to reevaluate relying on the US vs an Iranian arc with PRC/RUS ‘help’ Image
Rightly or wrongly, the US' allies seeing that if the Biden WH will cut *even Israel* adrift on arms and munitions supplies in a war after a massive terrorist attack, that their alliance with the US, too, operates purely at the whim of domestic US politics ... Obama's 3rd term Image
A global military alliance of intelligence support & arms sharing (going to standardisation of kit & calibres etc) is only sustainable, ultimately, to the degree that allies trust in the support of each other, esp when the going is hard... no one respects disloyalty esp enemies
Read 4 tweets
Feb 8
Putting Tucker to one side here .... weirdest part of Putin's villain role in the contemporary Western mind (admittedly an historically illiterate mind] is that if Putin dropped dead tomorrow, his successor would follow the same policies, probably more aggressively.
In July 2018, I wrote this piece, "The Sources Of Russian Conduct", on my blog, in an effort to put "The Russians" in some context for that part of the lay Western readership that was not totally brain damaged by America's internal convulsions

strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2018/07/source…
Image
Reality is that the West will never be close to Russia - we will have bouts of accomodation & OK times - but we also have many friction points. But we will need a modus vivendi with Russia in space, Arctic, and esp as Russia spans 11 time zones & Eurasian landmass Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 12, 2023
I am shocked - shocked I tell you - that the same people who were (catastrophically) wrong about Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etal, have now been proven wrong about the war in Ukraine ....


Image
Image
Image
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The auguries of genius statecraft Image
The true classic of the genre Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 23, 2023
Twitter trying to work out whether Prigozhin is "for real" this time or whether he is a character from the Cyrillic production of Turkey's 2016 'not quite a coup' ... or an Ernst Rohm or Lin Biao...regardless a lesson taught in these regimes is to never overrate your usefulness.
A key change in how RUS state fought the UKR war over past 6-10 months was to move slowly from 'war on the cheap' (Luhansk/Donetk militias & Wagner) to mobilising Russian reserves + bringing in more of the regular Russian armed forces hence extensive prep for UKR offensive
On any view, Wagner in 2022 filled gaps the RUS state wanted filled-it provided combat power ivo Soledar & Bakhmut in late 2022/early 2023. At same time, regular RUS units were being filled out & commencing the sappering & digging in for the very slow UKR offensive we see now.
Read 16 tweets

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