Gray Connolly Profile picture
May 29, 2022 32 tweets 13 min read Read on X
“In parallel, some of the existing coal capacities might also be used longer than initially expected, with a role for nuclear power and domestic gas resources too,” the Commission said.

cnbc.com/2022/05/20/eu-…
Australia's black coal (very clean coal btw) trading at a near/record high. As Australia is an energy & resources superpower, we would squander our resources inheritance at great cost to ourselves and imperil our Allies who we help power in these very dangerous times. Image
“Coal has no future”

“Coal mines will be a stranded asset” Image
The US (like Australia & Canada) has abundant energy resources but its political class has made basic energy exploration & extraction only more difficult & more expensive … Biden now has to go cap in hand to the Saudis to beg for increased production

nytimes.com/2022/06/05/bus…
Germany: "....has spent more than €500 billion ($743 billion) transitioning its electricity system ... But it had to keep 89 per cent of its fossil-fired capacity ...It now boasts Europe’s most expensive retail power"
smh.com.au/environment/cl…
The French running on Nuclear (which the UK also buys) do not have this problem: "New modeling by energy consultant Cornwall Insight forecasts that regulator Ofgem’s price cap could soar 46% to £2,879 in October, then another 3.6% to £2,907 from January"

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
India & China are importing more Russian oil+gas & the EU zone is still importing as well: "Russia is likely to bring in $285 billion in oil and gas revenues this year—20% more than the $235.6 billion the country brought in last year."
fortune.com/2022/06/14/put…
Again: Australia's (very clean) black coal trading at a near record high. We were all told by the very same people now urging energy rationing *in winter* for Australia [which is blessed with coal, gas & uranium] that coal had no future & coal mines would be stranded assets. Image
The US Energy Secretary wants both a rapid expansion of US oil investments in extraction & refining BUT also wants to reduce these same industries in the next decade. A completely unserious clownshow

Bravo @clairlemon "...watching the European experience, we know baseload power can come only from coal, gas or nuclear energy. If our leaders do not manage this situation carefully and learn from other nations, Australians may have to prepare for an energy crisis that never ends" Image
The obvious solution in plain sight ... ⚛️🐻‍❄️ Image
No country has believed more in 'the Renewables' than Germany .... yet as Germany faces a gas crisis, esp as Russia restricts supply, Germany has realised its only real choices are Coal, Gas, or Nuclear ... and Germany has chosen .... Coal ... Brown Coal?
Germany being brutally mugged by energy reality - having idiotically sworn off nuclear, foolishly gone big into unreliable renewables, denied Russian gas, Berlin is now left with … coal … and probably dirty brown coal

See here by @RobHarris_SMH ⬇️ Image
Austria went off coal for cheap Russian gas & renewables but is now restarting a previously shuttered coal-fired power plant

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
We need 2022 versions of these

(Via @ianfarrow ) Image
#vivelafrance 🇫🇷☢️🌲🌏 Image
No one bought more into “the renewables” cult than the Germans … without Russian gas, and having foolishly sworn off nuclear, it turns out … coal is again king / Kaiser

trib.al/oXZ5p7k
Outstanding @clairlemon piece on the immense costs of 'the renewables' fantasy, economic & political: ever more expensive and unreliable energy as well as geopolitical weaknesses that are self-inflicted wounds. The only proven baseload & climate solution is Nuclear. Image
Time for our periodic check in on the 'coal has no future' mantra ... Australia is an Energy superpower and our [very clean] black coal is trading at near record recent highs ...

Again: coal, gas, nuclear ... pick your baseload Image
No one put more money into "the renewables" than the Germans ... plus anti-nuke lunacy

"Germany has responded to the cuts by reviving coal plants and providing financing to secure gas supplies, while continuing with plans to phase out nuclear energy..."

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Subtext here is not just about electric vehicles but about whether European grids (in varying states of repair/reliability) can support the massive load that charging EVs would place upon them, esp in all weathers/seasons. Reality > Fantasy

reuters.com/markets/europe…
Everything here was predictable years ago … the idiocy of European esp German energy policy of the past 20 years will be studied for decades to come.

[Australians should esp take note here re our insane fracking bans/moratoria]

trib.al/CcBe4ca
It is late June and the clock is ticking for most European states to secure energy in advance of the coming winter. The Russian energy weapon was always known about & was a sword of Damocles that the EU core thought could be always managed … ImageImage
The French are nothing if not realistic & Macron here schooling Biden on the reality of Persian Gulf producers. Biden esp choose US energy scarcity & now reaps what he sowed to placate green energy delusions

(Via @ShellenbergerMD )

Necessarily grim warnings by @JavierBlas to Europe re its disastrous energy problems - read every word here:

"European leaders should sit down at an emergency summit devoted to the energy crisis. Next month will not be too early."

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
"At the current rate of gas inflows, Germany would need 116 days to reach its target to fill 90% of storage capacity, which would mean it would take until mid-October to do so -- a time of year that households would usually start consuming more gas..."
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"Europe is now paying a hefty price for its false sense of political security following the end of the Cold War, which left it so dependent on intermittent renewables generation and a Russian gas supply it thought it could trust."

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
All across the Western world .... driving & transporting anything by road will get more expensive. As with all energy costs, the poorest will be hardest hit.

abc.net.au/news/2022-07-0…
Biden's Admin is unserious about energy supply - buried lede⬇️

"This week's auctions are a fraction of the size of those held under former President Donald Trump ....Trump's Interior Department offered 26 million acres to drillers over four years."

reuters.com/world/us/biden…
"Since taking office, Mr. Biden has labored hard to make American fossil-fuel production more costly so green energy alternatives become more attractive. He succeeded, and the result is record prices."

wsj.com/articles/biden…
Commodities markets - especially oil, coal, gas etc - run on 'animal spirits' & price in expectations of future plenty/scarcity of supply. The message from Western Govts, esp the US, is a "scarcity" future for very costly & decades-long exploration/extraction projects Image
The lethargy and delay ... and scarcity

"The proposal comes months behind schedule to meet the legal requirements, and faces several more months of reviews before the department can offer new offshore areas for lease."

wsj.com/articles/biden…

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More from @GrayConnolly

Feb 8
Putting Tucker to one side here .... weirdest part of Putin's villain role in the contemporary Western mind (admittedly an historically illiterate mind] is that if Putin dropped dead tomorrow, his successor would follow the same policies, probably more aggressively.
In July 2018, I wrote this piece, "The Sources Of Russian Conduct", on my blog, in an effort to put "The Russians" in some context for that part of the lay Western readership that was not totally brain damaged by America's internal convulsions

strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2018/07/source…
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Reality is that the West will never be close to Russia - we will have bouts of accomodation & OK times - but we also have many friction points. But we will need a modus vivendi with Russia in space, Arctic, and esp as Russia spans 11 time zones & Eurasian landmass Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 12, 2023
I am shocked - shocked I tell you - that the same people who were (catastrophically) wrong about Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etal, have now been proven wrong about the war in Ukraine ....


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The auguries of genius statecraft Image
The true classic of the genre Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 23, 2023
Twitter trying to work out whether Prigozhin is "for real" this time or whether he is a character from the Cyrillic production of Turkey's 2016 'not quite a coup' ... or an Ernst Rohm or Lin Biao...regardless a lesson taught in these regimes is to never overrate your usefulness.
A key change in how RUS state fought the UKR war over past 6-10 months was to move slowly from 'war on the cheap' (Luhansk/Donetk militias & Wagner) to mobilising Russian reserves + bringing in more of the regular Russian armed forces hence extensive prep for UKR offensive
On any view, Wagner in 2022 filled gaps the RUS state wanted filled-it provided combat power ivo Soledar & Bakhmut in late 2022/early 2023. At same time, regular RUS units were being filled out & commencing the sappering & digging in for the very slow UKR offensive we see now.
Read 16 tweets
Apr 22, 2023
ANZAC Day Thread
Tuesday is ANZAC Day (April 25th) which commemorates the landing in 1915 by the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps at Gallipoli. It is Australia's national day for remembering our war dead, wounded, and war veterans, and their families
awm.gov.au/commemoration/… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
If you or a family member are "On Parade" on Tuesday and not in uniform, a useful dress and bearing guide from @MHHVic here Image
For #AnzacDay, an Australian tradition is the making of "Anzac Biscuits". The Anzac Biscuit is hardy, it is practical, it goes well with any hot brew, esp Tea, and, has become, since the Great War, the sustenance of a free people. Recipe here awm.gov.au/articles/encyc… Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 1, 2023
Retirement will be a luxury that occurred in a brief historic period of high birth rates where workers could support retirees .... hard to have retirements with QE, money printing, and, especially, low birth rates.
Sorry but anyone who thinks what is happening in France with riots over a minor upwards revision of pension ages is not coming to every western society is kidding themselves… Right politics that made it harder not easier for larger families are their own worst enemies
Likewise western military establishments will be very hard to maintain in societies where birth rates are so low … the devising of foreign legions and Wagner groups in all but name - however well disguised by law - are as much the likely Western future absent action as the past
Read 6 tweets
Mar 30, 2023
Twenty years after the Iraq War started & ten years after the arming of salafist jihadis in Syria, it is good that justice has finally caught up with an outlaw US president.

Oh.
Genuinely intrigued by the new movement in Left political if not yet legal circles - which we have seen here - that a trial is where an accused proves their innocence & not where the state must discharge its burden of proof beyond a reasonable doubt Image
A very good reason for monarchy & prosecutions in the name of the monarch - and especially having career not elected prosecutors forming a view of the evidence - is to avoid the current circuses in the US re Trump and the Biden family.
Read 5 tweets

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