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ChrisO

May 29 • 8 tweets • 7 min read

Some more information has emerged on Russia's apparent deployment of 40-year-old T-62M and T-62MV tanks to southern Ukraine. /1

The Zaporizhzhia Regional Administration has confirmed that T-62s have arrived in Melitopol. The regional governor, Oleksandr Starukh, says the Russians intended to use them not as frontline fighting vehicles but as dug-in stationary firing points. /2 t.me/zoda_gov_ua/83…

If so, this would mirror a tactic used by Saddam Hussein's Iraq in which dug-in tanks were used effectively as heavily-armed pillboxes. However, it failed in Iraq due to US air power. Ukrainian drones can cause similar problems for T-62s - the roof armour is only 40 mm thick. /3

Ukraine's R18 octocopter drones drop adapted RKG-3 anti-tank grenades which are capable of penetrating between 175-220 mm of armour. They've destroyed T-72s without too much difficulty, so stationary T-62s should be easy targets. /4

It should be noted though that the Ukrainian general staff posted today that "to make up for the losses, the enemy reinforces the group with obsolete weapons and military equipment, in particular, T-62 and BMP-1 tanks." facebook.com/profile/100069… /5

This apparently in reference to the Kherson/Zaporizhzhia region, which would be consistent with the reports from Melitopol. So it's quite possible that at least some of the T-62s are intended to remain mobile as a reserve force - rather a desperate measure. /6

Starukh is confident that the Ukrainians will cope with the arrival of the T-62s: "Knowing the Russians, they can find idiots who will drive those vehicles to their deaths. It's not a problem for our guys." /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

ChrisO

@ChrisO_wiki

May 27

Could Ukraine destroy the longest bridge in Europe - Russia's link to Crimea - and does Joe Biden hold the key to helping it do so? A 🧵 on why this matters, and an exploration of the mechanics of bridge-busting. /1

Bridges have been prime targets since the start of the Ukraine war. Ukraine says more than 300 of its bridges and overpasses have been destroyed since the start of the war. /2

Both sides have been responsible - including Ukraine targeting its own bridges. But why destroy bridges? First, you might want to block enemy movements, as Ukraine did when it blew up a railway bridge connecting it to Russian-occupied Transnistria. /3

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May 26

@ian_matveev

Russian advances in the Donbas are prompting a lot of commentary, including some irrational enthusiasm and gloom. It's worth looking at the bigger picture, as @ian_matveev (follow him!) has done in a thread which I've translated below with his permission.

@ian_matveev

From @ian_matveev: The Russian army has struck four heavy blows and breached Ukraine's defenses near Popasna. In a short thread, I will try to explain how in my opinion this will affect the war in the near future, and what to expect next.

To begin with, let's take a sober look at the situation. Two of the four strikes were assaults on Liman and Severodonetsk with massive artillery and MLRS support. This is nothing unexpected. These attacks have been prepared for a long time.

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ChrisO

@ChrisO_wiki

May 25

More details have emerged of Russia's deployment of very old T-62 tanks in Ukraine, which I commented on in the thread below. /1

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1529071995391987712?s=20&t=99NQdbMpBI8V47I2r_4aoA

@TankDiary

T-62s have been spotted being transported across Russia by train. The models visible are T-62Ms with applique armour and T-62MVs with Kontakt-1 explosive reactive armour. These upgrades date to 1983 and 1985 respectively. @TankDiary /2

https://twitter.com/i/status/1529393107858599936

According to Ukrainian media, they were transported from the 943rd Mobilization Deployment Support Center in Novoozerne, Crimea, and brought to the occupied southern Ukrainian city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia region. /3

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ChrisO

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May 24

Russia is running out of tanks. That's the inescapable conclusion from reports that it's transporting some of its reported 2,500 stored T-62s to support its war in Ukraine. What does this mean logistically and operationally? A 🧵 with some observations and deductions. /1

The T-62 is a very old tank indeed. Designed in the late 1950s to compete with the UK Chieftain and US M60, some examples in Russian storage bases are likely to be approaching 60 years old. Production ceased in 1975 after which it was largely relegated to reserve service. /2

Having said that, it's unlikely that Russia is reactivating its very oldest T-62s. It's more likely that the tanks being transported to Ukraine are T-62Ms, modernised in 1983 with protection and mobility improvements and a new fire control system. /3

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May 19

@TrentTelenko

In a now-famous thread on Russian Army tires, @TrentTelenko highlighted problems that likely arose from failures in vehicle maintenance. That got me thinking: how does Russia store its vehicles and what does this imply for how many usable tanks it actually has? A (long) 🧵. /1

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies "Military Balance", Russia has 2,800 tanks and 13,000 other armoured vehicles (reconnaissance and infantry fighting vehicles) in current use with another 10,000 tanks and 8,500 armoured vehicles in storage. /2

Stored vehicles can be mobilised and put on trains for transportation to wherever is needed. In the months leading up to the war in Ukraine, trains carrying tanks and other armoured vehicles were a frequent and highly visible sight across Russia. /3

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ChrisO

@ChrisO_wiki

May 17

Video from Ukraine today shows what's claimed to be UK-made Brimstone missiles striking two tanks in rapid succession somewhere in the Donbas. A 🧵 on why Brimstone's arrival in Ukraine is a potential game-changer. /1

What is Brimstone? It's a British alternative to the better-known US Maverick anti-tank missile, but is far more capable than the Maverick. It looks somewhat similar externally, but it's the electronics inside that make the biggest difference. /2

The missile is capable of being fired in two modes - direct attack or 'fire-and-forget'. It's the latter that is most remarkable: it can be fired in salvoes that seek out targets on the ground autonomously and work together to destroy them, defeating all known armour types. /3