Thread by @renaticas

For those watching #Colombia from afar, it might seem that today's was a win for @petrogustavo, but it is a thin one. Petro did not win in the first round, and the math highly favors Hernandez on second. A short 🧵

Today broke all the molds of how politics had worked- strong partisan support, clientelistic networks, endorsements from political patrons meant little. Strict Uribismo, which had chosen presidents since 2002 failed to win. 2/

However, Petro is facing a strobger challenge in Hernandez than he would have with Fico: they are both riding the indignation wave, they both promise a break with the past.

But Hernandez is not a leftist candidate, and his more extreme takes on security and social issues and his affinity with the economic elites will make it easy for Fico supporters to turn to him.

This is, honestly, unsurprising- Colombia has been a very conservative country historically, with a clear antagonism to leftist causes, in part because of the bloody guerrilla war of the last 50+ years.

Politicians will also see an opportunity in Hernandez' extremely thin and vague proposals, his lack of political structures and the big gaps in knowledge: they will know they are useful and will try to use him.

Voters who are afraid of the radical turn left that Petro promises might see in Hernandez a break with the past that is not such a radical bet or too dangerous. And the anti-Petro vote has already mobilized to support Hernandez in the second round.

The pitiful showing for Fajardo is also worrisome for Petro: these is the only set of voters that might turn to him. So the challenge is to mobilize sectors who didn't come out today. We still don't know what the abstention rates are, but this is Petro's only chance now.

One thing is true: Colombian politics are not for the faint of heart. We do have to be thankful that violence wasn't too present today. We will see how the coming weeks unfold.