Share this page!

Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Twitter logo
May 30 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Updates on #Macnamara here. A batch of absents just added will close the 3CP gap further but didn't shift the dial on projection very much.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-h…
A large batch of dec prepolls added and these were somewhat weaker for the Greens than earlier, and while reducing Labor's lead would still fall a few dozen short of the projected reduction. So that improves Labor's chances.
It looks to me like the Greens can only do this on COVID votes, they need there to be above average numbers of them and to break strongly. If either of those is not the case then there are probably not enough votes left.
COVID votes have not broken to the Greens - I am busy at chess now but note the ABC has called it for Labor at this point, I expect correctly.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @kevinbonham

Kevin Bonham Profile picture
May 30
Not sure I should feed the clickbait troll on this (hence screenshot) but when we have a pollster talking this nonsense that is at least vaguely concerning.
Absolutely ridiculous (that word again) to say that FPP ensures voters vote for what they want. They vote strategically for the least worst option, the same one they would have preferenced.
Looking at some of the amazing 3CP races we have had this election - yes well those are the same ones where in Canada the conservatives sometimes win despite most of the voters not wanting them, because the other parties can't work out who has the best chance.
Read 5 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
May 28
Sheesh.

This is spectacular incompetence that this utterly braindead garbage by Hartcher has been published. Learn how elections work. Wait until the bloody count has finished before declaring Labor lost 600,000 votes and the Greens only gained 4000.

smh.com.au/national/austr…
"These numbers are the official Australian Electoral Commission figures from late on Friday afternoon."

From an incomplete count, you overpaid twit.
This puts Hartcher in the same intellectual league as the United Australia Party who were yesterday using incomplete turnout figures to claim that turnout had crashed.
Read 9 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
May 27
A few people today have asked me what rechecking involves so here is the thread so I don't need to answer that one again. On election night it's important to strike a balance between speed and perfection and there will always be some counting errors the first time.
Booth counts from the first weekend are checked over coming days including checking that votes are actually formal (easy to miss doubled/skipped numbers on long papers), that they are in the right pile, that they are tallied correctly etc.
This also catches and fixes errors like the ones I detected in #Lyons and #Gilmore (where numbers were written down the wrong way round in data entry - rare event but does happen.)
Read 4 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
May 27
People may have noticed that I use the word "ridiculous" rather a lot but there is so much stuff out there that simply is ridiculous. I give you today's first pseudopsephologist, Senator Canavan.

couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/m…
"The focus on the teals is disproportionate to their vote share.

Teal supported candidates across the country received just 3.4 per cent of the vote."

"Compare the attention they receive to that of One Nation (with 5 per cent of the vote),"

etc
One Nation ran in 149 seats. United Australia ran in 151 seats. Teals depending on who you include ran in about 24.

If teals had run everywhere their vote would have smashed One Nation and the UAP and probably beaten the Nationals as well.
Read 8 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
May 26
In Qld Senate, LNP has been making big gains vs One Nation today. Probably because the count contains a lot of early-received postals and no absents (meaning gain rate vs ordinaries is far higher than in 2019) but I will have a look tonight to see if there's more to it.
Given ON's poor primary performance it might be they do poorly on preferences as well - OTOH could be a stronger minor party preference flow to them cause of mandate issues etc. Need to check if there are distortions in the count in terms of seats that are more counted.
I am suspecting that it's more than just postals and that when I looked at the Queensland count on Tuesday night, large prepoll centres could have been under-represented in the ordinary vote count.
Read 6 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
May 25
#Curtin: Gap between Chaney and Hammond has been closing very rapidly on postals. But there are not enough left to erase it entirely, at best maybe cut it to 400 or so.
That would leave absents (which are bound to be good for Chaney) and dec prepolls (her prepolls have been OK so far but sometimes INDs do poorly on prepolls). Could finish inside 1000, still seems very unlikely it can be retained.

I will run the count health check on it.
No anomalies detected.

The high flows to Liberal are in Cottesloe and City Beach North which have low Green votes. The current count is most likely more or less correct.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(