Putin's War -- May 30 briefing maps.
A mostly quiet weekend after Russia captured Lyman. Small changes.
- Russia gained a foothold in at least two neighbourhoods of Sievierodonetsk.
- Unclear Ukrainian advances near Davydiv Brid.
- Stalling of Popasna advances.
More below.
A slightly concerning area of Russian advances that I think are flying under the radar is btw Velyka Novosilka and Hulyaipole. Over the past month, frontline villages have often changed control, but it looks as though Russia is slowly getting the upper hand.
Timelapse since May 2
These are relatively small and often temporary gains for the moment, but there exists a threat that once Russian forces gain enough of an upper hand in this area that they could break through and threaten some of the more established defensive positions along this axis.
Other changes over the weekend that are worth pointing out include:
- Russian forces withdrew from Mykolaivka near Vysokopillia (I previously had this wrongly as under Ukrainian control);
- Ukraine gaining a hilltop position near Novobakhmutivka (near Adiivka);
- A Russian push (unclear how successful) towards Novoluhanske near Svitlodarsk;
- Russian push towards Oleksandrivka and Sosnove (btw Lyman and Izym);
- Ukrainian recapture of Velyka Komyshuvakha (near Izyum).
and, as always (when I remember), the full map of Ukraine
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Satellite imagery from May 31 shows that Russian troops look to have withdrawn from Davydiv Brid and set up positions in locations around the town in the past few days. It's not clear if Ukrainian troops have entered the town, but they have positions near Andriivka and Bilohirka.
Most of this is based on vehicle tracks that have appeared in the last five days. Sometimes it's hard to determine the direction of every track that's appeared so this is my best interpretation of the imagery. This shows a processed version of the imagery highlighting the tracks.
This, for example, shows tracks that are connected to likely Ukrainian positions and likely Russian positions (note that these some of the Russian tracks in this screenshot do not appear to have been used in the last ~5 days, but just illustrative)
Putin's War -- The May 31st map briefing.
- Russian forces have advanced forward troops significantly into the city of Sievierodonetsk.
- Satellite evidence of a significant Ukrainian force crossing the Inhulets river in Kherson (see next post).
Satellite imagery from the Inhulets river taken on May 30th by @planet shows two pontoon bridges set up near the village of Velyka Artakove and evidence of a large force crossing the river. This position has already been bombarded and is known to Russian troops in the area.
There have been some vague but significant claims of progress from Ukrainian forces along this axis, very little of which I have been able to confirm, so right now my map shows a conservative view of that area. Fighting has also been reported in Snihurivka and Vysokopilla.
Two states that have been credibly accused of committing genocide right now can stonewall almost any single thing in the UN. Is it really a surprise to see @mbachelet reading this whitewashing statement like a hostage note, or to see how broken the UN really is?
So disappointing.
@mbachelet This whole press conference is a farce to the extent that it must have been designed to obfuscate like this.
So many idealistic, wholly good people go to the UN thinking they can contribute to fixing ills in the world.
They should all be hanging their heads in shame today at this press conference. Openly whitewashing atrocities, serving Propaganda media questions and sidelining media.
🧵Today, in lieu of a full-Ukraine situation map, I'll be talking a bit about the Russian breakout in Popasna (heavily inspired by @J_JHelin, follow him), focusing on terrain. This map shows brighter colours as the terrain gets higher....
@J_JHelin As you can see, Russian troops have largely been following the higher-ground ridgelines to move their forward forces after breaking through defensive lines, meanwhile, units approaching from the low-ground have been bogged down and in many cases stopped by Ukraine.
@J_JHelin But on the high-ground they have been able to probe and assault quite deep behind Ukrainian lines, reportedly reaching the highway between Bakhmut and Lysychansk with forward recon units.
Putin's War -- The Daily Map Briefing for May 24th.
- Russia was able to break through the Ukrainian line at two axes around Popasna, one towards Yakolivka, cutting the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, one from Svitlodarsk.
- Russian troops entered Lyman and control part of the town.
Ukrainian officials announced the recapture of 24 settlements in Kharkiv oblast as part of a counter-attack against Russian forces. This cannot be mapped yet as there is no detail regarding which villages, or visual confirmation.
Russian gains in the past week or so from Popasna are significant and will likely force Ukraine to recommit forces and withdraw from several areas to prevent potential encirclement. I also expect an assault on either Soledar or Bakhmut itself in the coming weeks...
These are mugshots of four underaged Children arbitrarily detained in Xinjiang. They are some of the 23k listed detainees from a newly leaked police database, from just one Xinjiang county of 300,000 people.
Rahile Omer
Memetreshit Memettursun
Abdusemi Abduweli
Zeytunigul Ablehet
Zeytunigul Ablehet was detained because when she was 12 she was in a household where an 'illegal sermon' was played. Other children were detained because their houses had halal items, because they studied Islamic scriptures at home or because their family had 'unstable thoughts'.
You can look into the eyes of nearly 3,000 detained mugshots that were part of this leaked database. xinjiangpolicefiles.org/images-of-deta…
All-in-all, around 1 in 8 Uyghurs in Konasheher county were detained as part of a brutal crackdown unprecedented in the 21st century.