Thread by @AbdulMahmud01

#ViewFromTheSanctum
A part of G.O's political postulation has become real: that 2023 will be a three-horse race.
Now, we have Obi from LP and Atiku from PDP. Both have changed the dynamics, to the extent that ethno-solidarity becomes a factor ( not THE factor) going forward.

How will APC respond to these fast-changing dynamics. As it stands, political battles for 2023 will shift everywhere without a single nodal point. Will APC move northwards and place a countervailing weight against Atiku? Bello and Lawan are both minorities upnorth. No chance.

Bello is Ebira and Lawan is Bade, a small tribe spread in two states- Yobe and Jigawa. Yerima from Zamfara is a hard sell. Badaru is from an LGA in Jigawa, next door to Daura. It'll be impolitic to consider both. Which leaves APC going SS, SE or SW.

If it goes South, its politics will become of harvest - harvest the grievances of southerners. What happens upnorth? A fundamentalist VP-pick will rely on the old mantra: "he's not Muslim enough to represent the north". A new dynamic is added: religion

Religious fervour will be called upon down south and up north. Ethnicity and religion will make 2023 explosive, as all three major candidates canvas for votes. If APC goes south, who'll likely become its candidate? From SW, Amosun or Fayemi. Amosun is a Muslim

So, his pairing becomes problematic for the Muslim North. There are huge votes from the SW - votes will become a deciding factor. In the SS, Amaechi is a possible pick. There's the small problem of Wike- deal has to be done. Will Wike do 2011 Tinubu-esque?

In the SE, Nwajiuba. There's the Obi movement to contend with.
The hope is that a strong Southern candidate can overawe Obi's groundswell support which appears to be SE-localised at the moment. That groundswell support has to break out quickly and harness the national ground

Then, the north becomes the battle ground against Atiku. PDP has historically not performed in the northwest. With changing dynamics in Benue, Taraba, Kogi and Kwara - the middlebelt conclave - APC will has its eyes on the big prize.

The northern dynamics will have NNPP sneaking behind APC and PDP. At the national level, the dynamics can change if LP and the youths form a countervailing weight of resistance; but, don't count on this because of the old faultlines of ethnicity and religion.

But, if LP and NNPP work hard enough, they can stop the big two from crossing the 50% threshold. Then, we will move into a new territory like the French.

Good evening from the sanctum sanctorum of the shrine