Thread by @NavalHistWar

Where have efforts to open 🇺🇦#BlackSea ports been going these past few days? Not very far because it's a complex and intractable problem. NBC had a comprehensive article on the #grain issue, worth reading:

nbcnews.com/news/world/rus… .

First mention of a 🇪🇺maritime mission.🇪🇺has run maritime ops before but nothing like this and the idea that 🇹🇷would support it is politically naive. An
🇪🇺 ops would likely depend on a settlement with 🇷🇺first as it alone wouldn't deal with all threats.

elpais.com/internacional/…

At the other end the robust approach to call 🇷🇺bluff use overwhelming NATO naval forces in some capacity, is there, and Adm Stavridis made that case too.

Leaving aside mines, 🇹🇷, Montreux, insurance logistics etc. there is an issue being overlooked..

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

An international maritime ops escorting ships in and out of Odesa isn't just a trade defence exercise. It is in effect creating a no-fly and no-free fire zone for 🇷🇺over the SW 🇺🇦. No international TF would/could be deployed while 🇷🇺is conducting missile strikes over its AO.

That would change the dynamic of the conflict as an operation would limit Russian efforts (regardless of the fact their long range missiles are running low and the Kherson front might be turning).

In other related aspects, you might have seen this graphic on 🇷🇺🇺🇦 grain importers already. 🇱🇧is the place to watch out for over the summer, while unlikely to have been in Moscow's grand plan leveraging the #grain crisis to support regional FP interests plays out here. End/

Always helps to attach said graphic.