Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #BlackSea

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"When Russia invaded the Ukraine, we were already in the midst of hat we probably could have called a world food crisis anyway" @StateDept Special Envoy for Global Food Security Dr. Cary Fowler tells #EUDFF22

"This is built on top of that..."
"When you look at the current acute crisis that we face, you have to say to yourself & you have to get into the mindset that this is a 3-year crisis" per @StateDept's Fowler

"Short term in this situation does equal 3 years..."
As for grain stuck in #Ukraine, "1 alternative to the #BlackSea ports in Ukraine that we're currently looking at is essentially making use of the Black Sea ports in #Romania itself" per @EU_Commission Deputy Director-General for Agriculture Michael Scannell at #EUDFF22
Read 9 tweets
Where have efforts to open 🇺🇦#BlackSea ports been going these past few days? Not very far because it's a complex and intractable problem. NBC had a comprehensive article on the #grain issue, worth reading:… .
First mention of a 🇪🇺maritime mission.🇪🇺has run maritime ops before but nothing like this and the idea that 🇹🇷would support it is politically naive. An
🇪🇺 ops would likely depend on a settlement with 🇷🇺first as it alone wouldn't deal with all threats.…
At the other end the robust approach to call 🇷🇺bluff use overwhelming NATO naval forces in some capacity, is there, and Adm Stavridis made that case too.

Leaving aside mines, 🇹🇷, Montreux, insurance logistics etc. there is an issue being overlooked..…
Read 7 tweets
Day 92 of #Russia's war in #Ukraine

Now 110 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups operating in #Ukraine, most in the south of #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

"We assess that #Russia has made some incremental gains...still is fighting for control of the town of #Lyman"
"We blv that #Russia|n forces have been able to seize most of northeastern #Sievierodonetsk" per a senior US defense official
"No major changes" around #Kharkiv, per a senior US defense official

#Russia|n forces still within about 10km of the Russian border
Read 19 tweets
In April 2022, russia exported by sea from the ports of the #Azov and #BlackSea at least 10,900,000 tons of oil and petroleum products, including the physical volume of crude oil - about 8,500,000 tons (78%). - Black Sea News report
The physical volume of exports of petroleum products - about 2,400,000 tons (22%).
The value of this bloody April oil is estimated at about $ 7.4 bln. This amount of export revenue of the aggressor country is approximately equal to the value of 1,090 cruise missiles "Caliber"
Our conclusion: based on a comparison of maritime exports of oil and petroleum products from the russian ports of the #BlackSea and #AzovSea for the last decade of March 2022 and the average for the decade in April 2022 we can say:
Read 4 tweets
🧵We are a group of volunteers exploring existing and non-conventional options for moving #Ukrainian #grains, #wheat and #agricultural products into the #European #Railway Network for distribution to EU #Export terminals, primarily, but not exclusively on the #Danube Waterway.
Why, what's stopping this?

Similar to @Apple, @Microsoft or @Android Operating Systems, #Ukraine's and #Europe's #trains, #locomotives & #wagons operate on physically different track widths.

While having similar functionalities, they don't "play well with each other".
Specifically, a Ukrainian train cannot travel on a European railway (track) and European trains cannot travel on Ukrainian railways.

The width, called "Gauge", between rails is different. Ukrainian is 1520mm wide, while European is 1435mm.
Read 21 tweets
"We don't have any indication of the use of lasers...weaponized lasers" by #Russia in #Ukraine, per @PentagonPresSec

...this despite Russian claims its used a new generation of lasers to counter drones
US assesses #Russia is behind where it wants to be as far as progress in the #Donbas, w/Russian progress slow, uneven, per @PentagonPresSec

Says every day there are "hamlets towns and villages that are changing hands" between Russia & #Ukraine
US @SecDef Lloyd Austin to virtually host meeting of the #Ukraine Contact Group this coming Monday - more than 40 nations expected to take part, per @PentagonPresSec
Read 10 tweets
ICYMI: #Britain's @DefenceHQ says #Russia "has fired senior commanders who are considered to have performed poorly during the opening stages of its invasion of #Ukraine"
Per #Britain's @DefenceHQ:

- LtGen Serhiy Kisel, who commanded the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, suspended for failing to capture #Kharkiv

- VAdm Igor Osipov, who commanded #Russia’s #BlackSea Fleet, likely suspended
#Britain's @DefenceHQ warns #Russia's Vladimir #Putin may be losing faith in Russian Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov

"Gerasimov likely remains in post, but it is unclear whether he retains the confidence of Pres. Putin"
Read 5 tweets
Day 84 of #Russia's war in #Ukraine

Russia making some "incremental progress in the direction of the #BlackSea" near #Kherson & #Mikolayiv, per a senior US defense official

Russian also making some progress in #Donetsk
#Russia|n progress overall "fairly limited...a few kilometers maybe every day" per a senior US defense official
#Russia|n military offensives becoming smaller, more localized - US seeing "a shrinking of their offensives & their goals...using smaller units" per a senior US defense official
Read 9 tweets
Day 82 of #Russia-#Ukraine - Fight focused on the #Donbas w/both sides exchanged artillery fire

"They [#Russia] did not make significant territorial gains..." per a senior US defense official
NEW: US seeing heavy fighting in #Donetsk w/#Russia making small gains to the west, per a senior US defense official

Could be an attempt to link up with other Russian forces
"No progress" on #Russia|n attempts to cross #Donetsk River, per a senior US defense official

"They have been stymied, just about every effort"
Read 18 tweets
Unconfirmed : SURRENDERED: in #Azovstal
US General Eric Olson
British Lieutenant Colonel John Bailey
4 #NATO military instructors.
There is news of Canadian French Turkish officers still hiding inside tunnels
#SnakeIsland #Mariupol #Donbass #Ukraine @WIONews #Kiev @foxnews
Whereabouts of this US army Major General Roger Cloutier is not known , he was last seen in #Mariupol
US Admiral Eric Olson (Highly decorated special ops commander born in #Tacoma , Wa USA

@Ukraine @GeneralBakshi @WIONews #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #Kiev #SnakeIsland #BlackSea #Donbass #Britain #Eurovision
@TulsiGabbard @RandPaul
Read 3 tweets
What the Ship?
May 12, 2022

1️⃣ #Shipping Stocks Tumble
2️⃣ Roll-on/Roll-off Insurance Increases
3️⃣ @ilwulongshore Contract Renegotiation
4️⃣ Impact of #BlackSea Maritime War
5️⃣ #Diesel Costs Increase in Northeast US

1️⃣ Shipping stocks take another beating, sinking by double digits

H/T @GMJournalist @FreightWaves…
2️⃣Car Import Costs May Rise As Marine Insurance Report Warns Of RORO Risk

H/T @business…
Read 6 tweets
NEW: #Russia invasion of #Ukraine - Russian ground forces making "slow and uneven" in #Donbas, w/airstrikes ongoing there & in #Mariupol, per a senior US defense official

"Limited stand-off strikes" near #Odesa, official adds
#Russia increased # of sorties to over 300 in past 24 hours, per a senior US defense official
Towns & villages changing hands still - "There's a lot of back and forth" per a senior US defense official
Read 20 tweets
The "big" story of the day, for those who like their propaganda orchestrated, was a meeting ostensibly celebrating the Communist Youth League.

Communism and youth were conspicuous by their absence

Li Keqiang, the number two man in China, looks sad.
#xi #li ImageImageImageImage
In foreign news, Snake Island is one long slithering story.
CCTV uses official Ukraine defense footage to bolster Russia's victorious explanation of helicopters and boats being shot in action.

"Russia Defense Ministry says Russia defeated Ukraine's plan to seize the island." ImageImageImageImage
Strangely enough, it's Lukashenko rather than Putin who stars in this diatribe against "democracy" shown on today's program covering Europe's May 9th commemoration of WW2 victory.
#may9th #putin #lukashenko Image
Read 14 tweets
Citing the previous tweet
and adding more information hoping to help get a clear panoramic on increasing #foodprices and the increasingly looming narrative of #recession 👇
A massive backlog of #grains is piling up in #Ukraine to the tune of nearly 25 million tons due to "#infrastructure challenges" and blocked #ports in the #BlackSea, including #Mariupol - @Reuters reports 📰…
#Ukraine was the fourth-largest corn exporter in the 2020/21 season and the sixth-largest #wheat exporter in the world, according to the #IGC (International #Grains Council).…
Read 18 tweets
Russia deploys 6 ships, 2 submarines near #Ukraine in Black Sea.

Ukraine’s Operational Command South reported on May 8 that the ships are combat-ready and equipped with over 50 cruise missiles.
#Odessa #SnakeIsland #BlackSea #VictoryDay
Aftermath of a Russian missile strike in #Odessa, reportedly on NATO agents inside a hotel.
#Ukraine #VictoryDay #VictoryDayParade
#Mariupol #SnakeIsland
The Russian Aerospace Forces, during a special military operation, destroyed the "Grigory Kuropyatnikov" corvette ship of the Ukrainian Marine Guard near #Odessa region.

#VictoryDay #mariupol #Azovstal #UkraineRussianWar #Ukraine #Kiev #SnakeIsland
Read 4 tweets
1) Excellent #UkraineWar #thread🧵 by @DAlperovitch on Russia's de facto maritime blockade of Ukraine's southern coast & some of the difficulties involved in lifting it.
2) For more on Russia's de facto maritime blockade of Ukraine's southern coast & the naval situation from the start of the war, significant elements of which still hold, do check out this #thread🧵 from March
3) And more recently this @defaeroreport #Podcast🎧🗣️ with @CavasShips & @CSSProvision, talking #Moskva, blockade & trade protection in the #BlackSea, & Russia's apparent inability to otherwise exploit their #maritime superiority in the #UkraineWar…
Read 6 tweets
Day 63 of #Russian invasion of #Ukraine: +1,900 missile launches since start of invasion - most of missile / airstrikes vs Ukraine in #Mariupol & #Donbas, per a senior US defense official
NEW: US assesses there are now 92 #Russia|n battalion tactical groups now inside #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official
NEW: #Russia making "slow & even...incremental progress in the #Donbas, per a senior US defense official

"But there has been continued pushback by the #Ukrainians...a lot of back & forth" the official says, noting Russian forces in #Ukraine still plagued by logistical issues
Read 21 tweets
I am on a mini-bus Odesa—Chisinau, and a mother with a pre-teen daughter just said goodbye to the father. “I love you, papochka.” Everyone is crying quietly and discreetly, with sunglasses on. I never knew it is possible to hate Putin and Russia as much as I hate them now. Image
Elizaveta and Symba are fleeing Ukraine to Estonia via Moldova. A woman in her 80s is scared of music, thinks it’s a siren. Her house in Mykolaiv got bombed and she was left alone. Marina and Yoda flee to Germany, their man stayed in Ukraine. ImageImage
Friends, I'm in London to speak at @BylineTimes festival, speaking about the Russian war in Ukraine w/ great journalists/experts @lukeharding1968, @peterjukes, @Hardeep_Matharu, @OxfordDiplomat. I'm bringing a message from Ukraine that needs to be heard. Poster by @BylineTimes Image
Read 28 tweets
1/@johnkonrad had this latest post that dealt with the issue of Ukraine closing several shipping routes out of the ports of Izmail and Reni on the Danube due to mines reported in the Gulf of #Odesa due to escalation in mining during the #UkraineRussiaWar.…
2/One of the issues raised by @johnkonrad and myself is the role of @NATO_MARCOM in the #BlackSea to protect shipping flagged and owned by @nato countries. We had numerous early incidents of ships being targeted and even used by Russia as a shield.

3/While most attention was drawn to the fight for Kyiv, the Russians aimed to form the land bridge from Crimea to Donbas, secure the Sea of Azov & blockade the Ukrainian coast. This has led to the dozen of ships and hundreds of mariners being trapped.

Read 7 tweets
A #mustread analysis by @vgmenon99 Sir on the sinking of the #Moskva ,he uses Naval analysis to discount the possibility that the #BlackSea fleet flagship could have sunk due to #neptune missile attacks & raises the possibility of a #submarine attack.…
@vgmenon99 Commodore Menon brings out the possibility of a torpedo being fired at the #Moskva , leaves us with only 4 options .
1) A #Russian Kilo fired the torpedo .
2) A #Turkish SSK was the culprit.
3) An SSK/SSN that transited the Bosporus in secret.
4) Airdropped torpedo from an MPA
@vgmenon99 On that last point there is a lot of P3C traffic in the general vicinity of the #MoskvaDown situation.
Read 4 tweets
We — the Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews — predict that the world will soon have to face and get acquainted (except for 🇷🇺 gas blackmail, which everyone finally understood) with 🇷🇺 grain blackmail.
That is, so far they have almost cut 🇺🇦 off from the world #grain market (our grain exports are currently about 500,000 tons per month, before the war — 5 million tons per month).
They will not 100% block #Ukraine’s grain exports through the #BlackSea ports until the end of the war, no matter how “deeply concerned” the @UN and other international organizations are about the prospects of #famine in #African countries.
Read 6 tweets
There are so many unknowns about the details of the sinking of #Moskva. My two cents on the issue with some technical analysis.
1. The crew evacuated the ship, a rare situation and possibly means that the damage control efforts failed, unlike #Russia claimed.
#Ukraine #NATO
2. Warships have two/three damage control parties (forward, amidship, aft), and each has fire fighting and repair teams so that the crew can handle multiple fires/ damages concurrently.
3. Ammunitions are kept in highly protected compartments, and it is very difficult for an ordinary fire to spread to an arsenal onboard. If the fire was under control per #Russian MoD, and the ship can float why the crew abandon Moskva?
Read 22 tweets
BREAKING: #Russia's RIA news agency says the #Moskva Missile Cruiser has sunk Image
Earlier @PentagonPresSec said, "We do believe that there was a significant explosion on this cruiser the #Moskva...

"We do believe that that that explosion caused a significant fire, which as of this morning was still least some of the crew members evacuated"
Asked about the impact of the #Moskva being disabled, @PentagonPresSec said, "That's a little difficult to know with great would be difficult to be able to tell you that this one ship being out of commission, what exactly the impact is going to have"
Read 6 tweets
NEW: #Russia has repositioned a small number of troops arrayed vs #Kyiv over last 24 hours - some heading to #Belarus, per @PentagonPresSec

"None of them have repositioned to their home garrison" he adds
.@DeptofDefense believes #Russia likely to refit the moved troops and send them elsewhere in #Ukraine

Repositioning affects less than 20% of the troops arrayed vs #Kyiv - "They're leaving Kyiv & heading more to the north...away from the city" per @PentagonPresSec
NEW: "We would concur w/the conclusion that Mr. Putin has not been fully informed by his Ministry of Defense at every turn" per @PentagonPresSec
Read 32 tweets

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