Mark Galeotti Profile picture
Jun 1 13 tweets 4 min read
As I continue to follow Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev’s, descent into conspiracy theory lunacy, he gave an interview with AiF about the ‘special operation’ in Ukraine. A short thread on the 'high'lights. 1/
aif.ru/politics/world…
Not just the usual racially-profiling broadsides at those nasty ‘Anglo-Saxons’ he also trots out the tired conspiracy theory of the ‘golden billion,’ the idea that there is a secret and deliberate plan to allow an elite will prosper at the expense of everyone else 2/
(Sure, one could argue that in many ways this is the natural logic of market capitalism, but to present this as (a) a deliberate conspiracy and (b) something the Russians wouldn’t be eagerly embracing if they could, is pretty far-fetched, even for NP.) 3/
US + UK (no proper anti-Russian conspiracy can be w/o Brits in Patrushevworld) are creating global econ crisis blocking grain, fertilizers + energy. Um, isn’t this more Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea, destruction of UKR infrastructure + decision to stop energy supplies…? 4/
Oh, and by the way, as if all this were not enough, “some experts” believe that coronavirus was a Soros- and Clinton-funded US bioweapon. So there. 5/
Interestingly, at a time when the official Kremlin narrative is stepping back from the ‘de-Nazification’ line, NP – perhaps auditioning for one of those toxic evening TV propaganda shows, doubles down. 6/
But as an historian, I was particularly shocked/delighted not just by the blithe assurance of historical divine right but also citing Skobelev as an icon of Russian compassion in war. 7/
The “compassionate” tsarist Gen. Mikhail Skobelev commanded the 1881 massacre of Geok-Tepe in Turkmenistan 8/
rferl.org/a/qishloq-ovoz…
More specifically, he has ascribed to him the dictum “I hold it as a principle that the duration of the peace is in direct proportion to the slaughter you inflict upon the enemy. The harder you hit them, the longer they remain quiet.” 9/
Hmm, maybe Skobelev is a better exemplar of Russian policy in Ukraine than NP realises… 10/
Needless to say, though, none of this is likely to appear in the kind of renewed, monolithic, Kremlin-defined, nationalistic, statist and triumphalist official culture and education model NP espouses. 11/
So in conclusion, Patrushev has again managed to surprise me, bringing new layers of conspiracy theory – ones which, unlike the majority of cynical RU propagandists – I fear this smart and driven man actually believes into his analysis of current global events. 12/
And this is the man who is in effect Putin’s National Security Adviser. How marvellous. If anyone wants more of my take on Patrushev, I talk about ‘The Most Dangerous Man in Russia’ in my podcast in 2020: 13/end
buzzsprout.com/1026985/4169738

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More from @MarkGaleotti

May 17
Let's deconstruct Putin's alleged 'military career'
I was struck by this claim of his, reported in @thetimes in the context of (credible) claims he is micromanaging the war effort. A short thread 1/
Yes, like every young man at a Soviet uni, he received draft deferment at the price of having to do reserve officer training during his studies. That said, those who went through this attest to the fact that unless you were keen, this could largely be coasted through. 2/
It certainly was a commitment far lower than ROTC or the UK's Army Officer Scholarship Scheme, which are direct feeds into mil service. Like so many Sov practices, it tended to be characterised by bureaucratism, presentism and a desire on most people's parts just to get by 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 12
"The Ukrainian army is an amazing and very strong combination of a Russian soldier, a fascist officer and an American general"
The convolutions hardline Russian commentators must go through to explain their failures in #UkraineRussianWar. A short thread 1/
kp.ru/daily/27391/45…
It is, of course, quite a challenge how to pivot from "we will be welcomed" to "we are being hammered" but Russia's propagandists are doing their best. Markov's article, linked in the first tweet, is a better example than most 2/
1st, the need to share the blame: "The Ukrainian army turned out to be much stronger than it was supposed, looking from Russia, and much stronger than it was seen by Western analysts" - ie, we were no more wrong than anyone else 3/
Read 11 tweets
May 5
Let us set aside the rumours that Patrushev is going to rule Russia in Putin's stead while he has a cancer operation. Why? A short thread 1/
independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
a. Provenance. The 'General SVR' Telegram channel is not something to take seriously. It is a source of some of the most ludicrous gossip, with the dubious claim that it comes from a general of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service 2/
b. Legality. According to he constitution if the president is unable to carry out his duties - the PM, currently Mishustin, steps in as interim. But this is for long-term incapacitation, not brief periods of indisposition. There is no provision for any transfer of power then 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 2
We have stories like this claiming Moscow plans to take Moldova and then drive a land bridge to Crimea. Am I missing something? This seems v implausible A short thread 1/
thetimes.co.uk/article/russia…
Sure, Moscow could stir up trouble in Chisinau and generally create a pretext for action, if it wanted to, but then? Moldova's forces are v small but so are Transnistria's, and the maybe 1500 Russian troops are by no means all operational 2/
Nor could they be rearmed, resupplied or reinforced. To fly to Moldova, Russian planes would have to cross Ukrainian airspace. Would they really risk Il-76s full of troops when Kyiv has demonstrated the capacity to continue to hit Russian planes? 3/
Read 5 tweets
Apr 28
I can understand the moral case for committing to push Russia out of all Ukraine, implying also Crimea, but do have concerns. A 🧵1/ bbc.co.uk/news/uk-612516…
Unity. The West’s strength has been its (frankly unexpected) unity. While there is value in opening up the debate on war aims, going for what Johnson called the “maximalist” option is likely to open up divisions 2/
To this end, I hope this is not just Truss grandstanding but an expression of at least the UK govt view, if not a Western consensus reached behind the scenes. But I am sceptical 3/
Read 7 tweets
Apr 27
Nikolai Patrushev, hawk’s hawk and a man I described as ‘the most dangerous man in Russia’ (buzzsprout.com/1026985/4169738) has given an interview to govt newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta. A lengthy thread 1/
rg.ru/2022/04/26/pat…
On one level, it’s the kind of talking points we’ve heard before, just with some added vitriol and hyperbole, but some lines are worth considering for their implications
(And besides, I read this bilious tract so you don't have to)
2/
Why is this a war not with Ukraine but the West? Because of US ambitions of global hegemony, which means it seeks “to force Russia to give up its sovereignty, self-consciousness, culture, independent foreign and domestic policy.” In this context this is a proxy war… 3/
Read 25 tweets

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