Assuming this does convey the real tenor of the current proposals, there is so much that is delusional. Let me just pick on 2 specific elements: the 'line of contact' and the 'negotiations on the governance of occupied territories' 1/

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1980672315282382853

What 'line of contact'? Just ask all those OSINTers trying to draw their maps. This is a messy, scrappy war, where both sides 'lines' overlap and interpenetrate, because they are often made up of handfuls of guys trying to dodge drones and hold a treeline here, a dugout there 2/

7 October – Putin’s 73rd birthday. I won’t wish him many happy returns, but let’s just spend a moment pondering the dilemmas that will likely face him in the coming year 1/ Obviously, there’s the war. He seems to have chosen to squander the chance to fix the current front line with a deal negotiated through Trump, so the meatgrinder continues. His gamble is clearly that he can get a better deal yet but… 2/

It’s easy (and not wholly untrue) to slam Vladimir Medinsky, leading the Russian delegation to Istanbul as a nobody, but perversely, although I think it monstrously unlikely anything meaningful will come from the talks, the composition of the delegation is encouraging. A 🧵 1/ Putin was never likely to attend, not least as he wasn’t going to allow it to look as if he had been manipulated and dared by Zelensky. Besides… 2/

Moscow is still noncommittal on the Ukraine ceasefire proposal. Why? A short thread 1/ Putin wants Kursk recaptured first. If there is any chance the ceasefire front line ends up freezing as a de facto border, he doesn't feel he can leave any Russian territory in Ukrainian hands. 2/

Leaving #MSC2025 (exhausted!) there’s been lots of bullish comment about Europe getting its act together and “the resistance begins” (how telling that its resistance to the USA, not Russia or China…). But… 1/ How far will it last outside the hothouse atmosphere of the MSC, and the competitive, performative desire to out-bluster the last speaker? I don’t doubt the sentiment it’s that I honestly don’t know what happens when faced with the costs and transposed into the real world 2/

My man Nicky P, Nikolai Patrushev, is giving interviews again (lots of spare time to fill, I suspect), this time in Komsomolskaya Pravda. A thread 1/
kp.ru/daily/27651/50… His key point is that the world is changing (hardly novel) and by implication the old status quo (= current world order) is obsolete: “we are witnessing serious changes in the world. I mean not only the geopolitical situation, but also the state of affairs in the economy, the technological sphere, social and cultural processes. The last time such tectonic shifts occurred was after the collapse of the USSR.” 2/

Putin’s problems build in Ukraine, but he’s finding help in Brussels
The focus isn't so much on what's highlighted in the title, but anyway, here's my roundup of the situation for @thetimes (£) - some quick takeaways 1/
thetimes.com/world/russia-u… On Monday's 'Reunification Day' 'celebrations', Putin asserted the “genuinely liberating nature” of his invasion and crowed that “all the goals we have set for ourselves will be achieved”. Hardly, but at present he has some reasons to be content 2/

It’s interesting how the Russian press is handling the specific case of Vadim Krasikov, the Spetsnaz turned contract killer turned FSB assassin, whom Putin welcomed first at Vnukovo. A thread about how the outlier (positive) coverage is perversely (slightly) good news. 1/ Most newspaper play it straight and low-key: they note the confirmation that he was an FSB’s Al’fa commando, convicted of killing “Georgian citizen Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, who lived in Germany,” a former Chechen “field commander.” 2/
vedomosti.ru/politics/news/…

Cranking up the Murder Machine?
There has been a steadily-escalating Russian covert ops campaign in Europe over the past year, but the latest news of an assassination plot seems to represent something of a big deal. A thread 1/
thetimes.com/world/europe/a… In short, the claim is that Moscow had plans to kill Armin Papperger, head of the German arms firm Rheinmetall, along with other senior figures in the European defence-industrial complex 2/
edition.cnn.com/2024/07/11/pol…

Col. Gen. Sergei Beseda, head of the FSB’s 5th Service, retires
A thread on what I think this means. 1/
storage.googleapis.com/istories/news/… Just a reminder: the 5th Service, the Operational Info & International Relations Service, has other duties but especially runs agents in ex-Soviet countries and as such was meant to have a massive network in Ukraine, that largely failed to materialise in 2022 2/
rusi.org/explore-our-re…

Rather depressing that new Defence Minister Belousov is sporting a uniform now for Security Council, even if he has the silver stars of a civil servant, not gold of a general. Performative dress does matter though – a short thread 1/ Until Shoigu, civilian defence ministers wore suits – even Sergei Ivanov, who as a former FSB general did have the legit right to go uniformed. Apart from just being less tacky, it also symbolised civilian control of the military 2/

Nikolai Patrushev becomes a Presidential Aide
We were all wondering where he would go - this is an interesting move, sideways and a little downward, but the exact angle of that downward slide remains to be seen. A few thoughts... 1/
meduza.io/en/news/2024/0… The position of Presidential Aide (henceforth PrA) is an ambiguous one. It doesn't mean the person who fetches Putin's tea and arranges his pencils (unless that's what Putin wants done!), so much as once of his general purpose henchmen 2/

At great threat to my mental wellbeing, another dip into today’s Russian press around the Crocus City terrorist attack. A thread. 1/ The high-circulation Argumenty i Fakty (incidentally where Patrushev most often gives his interviews) has no doubts, as shown by this front page. Islamic State? No, it was the Collective West and their Ukrainian puppets 2/

Reading today's government newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta in many ways illustrates the key dynamics around the Crocus terrorist attack. A short thread 1/ We have Putin's remote (in every sense) meeting, at which he reluctantly admits jihadists committed the attack but repeats his claim that it connects to "a whole series of attempts by those who have been fighting our country since 2014 at the hands of the neo-Nazi Kyiv regime" 2/

Sudden excitement from some quarters: ‘OMG, Russia now admitting war in Ukraine is a war, not a “special military op”’. The truth, as ever, is rather less exciting, but an interesting semantic-political tale 1/ The source is an interview with presidential spox Peskov in AiF in which he does indeed say ‘we are at war…’ 2/
aif.ru/politics/world…

“Start with yourself, Comrade Dugin”
A broadside attack on Alexander Dugin appears in Moskovsky Komsomolets. A couple of quotes and thoughts... 1/
mk.ru/social/2024/03… "People want to have an income, a pension and peace of mind in the future. And they are offered an eternal battle and endless belt-tightening in a dystopian society literally divided along Brahminical lines. There is an elite - and everyone else." 2/

I was very pleased to be able to play a small, small role in this fascinating expose of Presidential Administration files on various political projects. Read the article (more to come, I understand), but a couple of other points... 1/

https://twitter.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1761964302884540592

Firstly, it is a reminder of the power and scope of the Presidential Administration. I think its position at the heart of the Russian state is often under-rated. In many ways, to put it in Soviet terms, it's the Central Committee Secretariat to the Council of Ministries... 2/

Shock! Putin is standing for re-election next year. How could he not, now? Before 2/22 he might have dreamed of stepping back, but he can’t risk it now. A thread. 1/
rg.ru/2023/12/08/put… Here’s my startling take: he’ll win.
What?
Seriously, while the decision to stand and the inevitability of his win is no surprise, there are some things to watch 2/

Today, 4 November, is Russia’s Day of National Unity, established in 2005, and in the current situation, there’s an attempt to give it a depressing but predictable new spin. A thread. 1/ It was introduced ostensibly to celebrate the events of 1612, when the people's militia under the leadership of a Kuzma Minin and Prince Dmitry Pozharsky liberated Moscow from Polish invaders 2/

The ‘sanctions work/don’t work’ debate is often pretty sterile and distorted by the way some boosters seriously overplayed their likely effects on Russia at the start. A short thread from a non-economist 1/ 2/ This was triggered by a characteristically vapid article in today’s govt newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta with the title ‘They got what they deserved. The consequences of the departure of European companies from Russia’
rg.ru/2023/08/07/pol…

This is a particularly bad take, epitomising a dangerous kind of triumphalism that also does Ukraine no favours. A short thread 1/
Take away Russia’s nuclear weapons – for Putin is finished and his country may soon collapse telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/1… "Vladimir Putin is finished... He might struggle on for a few more weeks, even months." What possible evidence is there for assuming there could be regime change in weeks? 2/