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Jun 1 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Here is a piece commissioned by the Armenian online analytical journal Analyticon on the new EU mediated ARM-AZ talks theanalyticon.com/en/may-2022-en…
Three questions. The role of Russia? What now for the Minsk Group. (It’s frozen but not entirely dead). And what about the #Karabakh Armenians? Territorial independence is off the table but, as I’ve said for many years, the question of their security is paramount.
In a new statement Charles Michel’s spokesperson clarified some details and also stresses the importance of public diplomacy and “rights and security” consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…
PS My article also available in Armenian and Russian

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More from @Tom_deWaal

Thomas de Waal Profile picture
May 11
1 A great despatch by @MarcChampion1 from Bessarabia in SW Ukraine. It’s important for its long Black Sea coast, as a supply route to the EU, more than ever now as Odessa is blockaded. Which is why the Russians destroyed the Zatoka bridge.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2 It’s also Ukraine's most multi-ethnic region: a legacy of being part of the Ottoman Empire, Russian Empire, Romania, the USSR, now Ukraine. A real mosaic of nationalities. And Russian is the lingua franca. Image
3 I loved visiting Bessarabia in 2018, wrote this report with @BalazsJarabik. Fair to say that a) people felt alienated from Kyiv and central government b) there was no great love for Moscow either c) most complaints were economic, esp. about roads
carnegieeurope.eu/2018/05/24/bes…
Read 4 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Apr 29
1 A new chilling imperialist article in the Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda openly threatens Moldova, Georgia and the Baltic States. A summary.
kp.ru/daily/27385/45…
2 As ever we can't know if it was written in coordination with Russia’s elite or if the eager pupil is merely trying to please the teacher. It certainly normalizes the idea that Russia has the right to use force against neighbours who make a different geopolitical choice.
3 The Ukraine “events” are, we're told, “a turning point in the contemporary history of post-Soviet politics and a decisive step by Russia towards the complete re-formatting of the geopolitical situation in the territory of the former USSR.”
Read 12 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Apr 22
Different signals on the future of #Transnistria/#Transdniestria #Moldova as the Ukraine war continues. Russia military commander Rustam Minnekayev, quoted in today’s Kommersant, says Russia's war aim is to establish total control over south of Ukraine.
kommersant.ru/doc/5318738
That means, establishing a land bridge to Crimea, crippling Ukraine's economy--and also linking up, he says, to Transdniestria “where facts are recorded of the oppression of the Russian-language population” (By whom? we might ask.)
The population of Trandniestria itself do not seem to have got the memo. A report here three days ago that increasing numbers of Transdniestrians are applying for Moldovan citizenship and the total number is now at 338,000
newsmaker.md/rus/novosti/v-…
Read 5 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Apr 4
Parallels and differences in Ukraine with Russia’s first war in #Chechnya in 1994. My piece for @WSJ from Friday. A swift "special operation" failed, there was no Plan B. So Moscow resorted to mass bombardment, Russians in Grozny bore the brunt of it.
wsj.com/articles/chech…
The brutality of the Russian army against Chechens rallied resistance, even from opponents of Jokhar Dudayev.
Both then and now I see what I'd call a “false memory” of World War II, that forgets the human cost and assumes that total warfare is a legitimate route to victory...
My piece came out before the Bucha massacre was revealed. If I were to write it today I would have talked more about impunity, about atrocities in Samashki and Novye Aldi that were never properly investigated.
Read 4 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Mar 9
1 A long🧵on the situation in #Transdniestria/#Transnistria, misconceptions and fears that it could turn into a new front in the war.
My main point is there's a shared interest both in Transdniestria (TN) and in right-bank Moldova in stopping the conflict from reaching them.
2 In the end if Russian advance continues to Odessa spread of the conflict to Moldova is quite likely. But internationals should bear in mind that TN is far from eager to be Russia’s helper against Ukraine. It's more complex and to suggest so fans conflict.
3 I spoke to a few people in Chisinau and Tiraspol in last few days. Quick wake-up call came when 8 missiles destroyed Vinnytsia airport and reports said they came from TN. Moldova's MOD quickly denied this. (They were probably fired from Black Sea.)
Read 23 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Mar 9
“We strongly encourage all young pianists of any nationality, but particularly those from Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus, to participate in the upcoming edition of the Busoni Competition.”
Bravo to the Busoni Piano Competition for this.
busoni-mahler.eu/en/home-en/?fb…
Solidarity for Ukraine and support for all Ukrainians is the No. 1 priority surely. At the same time the collective moral punishment some arts and educational institutions are applying to ordinary Russians and Belarusians denying them scholarships or college places, is hideous
—especially when it comes from people who have the comfort of living in societies with free speech and democracy. It’s not so many steps from here to blaming all Muslims for 9/11 or interning all Germans and Japanese in World War II. Don’t go there please!
Read 5 tweets

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