Thread by @RALee85

Thread. Two points I want to make from this article:
1) The Russian invasion force's struggles in Ukraine do not show a fundamental change in warfare
2) I think this shows that people are jumping to the wrong conclusions about this war and the Russian military's weaknesses

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1532343503270731776

One of the main reasons why Russian tank units struggled in Ukraine is that they lacked sufficient infantry to support them, particularly in urban areas. This doesn't show that tanks are necessarily more vulnerable, it is a well-known requirement for the success of tank units. 2/

Infantry is the fundamental and oldest component of armies. This war shows that infantry is still just as critical (people have said that infantry is obsolete as well), and that Russia needs more light infantry. Imo, this war discredited the VDV's overly mechanized structure. 3/

We don't need to look at new concepts or technology to explain the Russian military's issues in Ukraine. It executed a poor strategy and didn't have enough infantry when it faced greater than expected resistance. This is also helps explains its issues in large northern cities. 4/

Regarding my 2nd point, one of the key weaknesses that people on TV or in articles are mentioning to explain the Russian military's failures is the lack of a professional NCO corps. I don't think this is the problem or the correct explanatory variable. 5/

Many Russian platoons only had 15-18 personnel. They still had an officer, an SNCO, and NCOs. USMC squads are approximately the same size and led by NCOs. The bigger issue was the lack of contract infantry privates to fill out these platoons, and they were too top-heavy. 6/

Russia's NCO corps is a weakness, but it wasn't the reason for the Russia's issues in Ukraine and I don't think it really explains the lack of low-level initiative either. A narrative is already forming that this is a key problem, and I don't think the data support that claim. 7/

Many of the articles making claims about modern warfare lessons or the Russian military from this war I think either are a misinterpretation of the evidence or don't consider properly alternative explanations. We should be wary of allowing narratives to form too early. 8/